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October 2023 Email Update

Tim Kelley • Oct 11, 2023

The September median sales price for single-family-homes was $1,050,000 (4.5% lower than September 2022) and for condos was $532,500 (6.0% higher than September 2022).  Higher interest rates continue to weigh on demand with 16.5% fewer single-family homes selling in September compared to the year before and 24.2% fewer condos selling.  The market continues to search for a bottom.  There were 7.6% fewer single-family homes listed in September and 14.1% fewer condos.


You can review more detailed current and past real estate market data on our website using the link below.


Monthly Statistics


The University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization’s (UHERO) third quarter forecast includes the immediate impact of the wildfires on Maui’s economy and their estimates for the eventual recovery.  UHERO reported Maui visitor numbers plunged by nearly three-quarters immediately following the wildfire resulting in revenue losses of $13 million per day.  Visitor numbers have just begun to recover in late September.  Visitor arrivals are expected to reach 50% of 2022 numbers by the end of the year and reach 80% by the end of 2024.  Unemployment numbers have surged to over 11% and the state is once again struggling to process the claims because they still have not updated their computer systems.  The wildfires displaced about 7,000 individuals and it will take years to replace the destroyed housing.  UHERO expects the impact on the rest of the state will be muted.  Tim and Tracey’s friend has a tour business on Oahu, and she has had several cancellations since visitor plans included a visit to Maui.  Time will tell how much Oahu visitor numbers will be impacted through 2023 since many people have already made and cancelled planned trips to Maui and elsewhere.

When Maui Mayor Richard Bissen on September 27th announced that West Maui would be gradually reopened for tourism beginning October 8th, some members of the Lahaina community protested.  The displaced residents want their kids back in school, a plan for underground utility lines, establishment and better management of firebreaks with expanded use of reclaimed wastewater, and water for irrigation of traditional crops.  The demand for resources appears at odds with the island losing $13 million per day in lost visitor revenue.  It appears the next few months will be contentious as West Maui tries to recover from the devastating wildfires.

The first day of the planned opening on October 8th was quiet with small groups gathered to honor family and friends lost during the wildfire at the intersection of the Lahainaluna Bypass and the Lahainaluna Road into West Maui.  People laid fresh flowers at the site where crosses represented victims of the wildfires.  Flags from Hawaii, the Philippines, Japan, Mexico and more represented the nationalities of those that lost their lives.  Some local leaders do expect things to get more tense if the county and state continue to fail in support of the families in need.

UHERO published Hawaii Housing Factbook in June to specify the challenges Hawaii residents face when trying to pay for housing.  UHERO just released the Hawaii Housing Dashboard to compliment the factbook and allow users to delve into this interactive platform and pull up statistics about Hawaii’s neighborhoods.  For instance, over one-half of Oahu renters spend more than 30% of their income on rent and over one-quarter of renters spend more than 50% on rent.  The median housing age is 47 years and only 24,000 housing units have been added over the past five years.  The median length of time to acquire a housing permit stands at 153 days.  To access the dashboard, visit the website:


Hawai'i Housing Data Dashboard


The 2020 U.S. Census reported a majority of Native Hawaiian and part Native Hawaiian people live outside of Hawaii. 46.7% of Native Hawaiians live in Hawaii versus 55% living in Hawaii according to the 2010 Census.

The City and County of Honolulu noted violent and property crimes have dropped significantly since Safe and Sound Waikiki was implemented September 5th, 2022.  Assaults dropped by 4%, burglary dropped 31%, criminal property damage dropped by 28%, and breaking into automobiles dropped 35%, and theft overall dropped by 6% compared to the same period one year ago.  Safe and Sound Waikiki utilized the combined efforts of the city’s vice squad, foot patrol officers, and the community policing team to discourage continuing crime.  The mayor stated the program will focus its efforts helping the drug-addicted and homeless population in Waikiki to build on the first year’s success.

The City and County of Honolulu purchased vacant land in Kailua’s Coconut Grove neighborhood to build 42 one-bedroom and two-bedroom affordable apartments for rent.  Through a public-private partnership, a developer will be provided with a land lease to build and rent out the rentals at “affordable” rents.  There was no mention of the number of off-street parking that has been a bone of contention in the community.  Street parking is already difficult to find, and the problem will compound if sufficient off-street parking is not provided.

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) ordered the City and County of Honolulu to meet the pollutant discharge requirements at the Kailua Regional Wastewater Treatment Plant.  The plant discharges exceeded the limits for Enterococcus, bacteria from fecal matter over 13 days in April and May.  The EPA ordered the installation of new bacteria treatment technology and to conduct major repairs to the biological treatment units.  The city plans on installing an ultraviolet disinfectant system in 2025.


Kailua Regional Wastewater Treatment Plant


Bill Wong, the architect who pleaded guilty to bribing members of the Department of Planning and Permitting (DPP), still has an active license and is submitting plans for permitting approval.  The Department of Commerce and Consumer Affairs (DCCA), the state’s licensing authority, has yet to take formal action against the architect.  The DCCA’s only comment was that a complaint was opened and pending with the Regulated Industries Complaints Office (RICO), the complaint department.  The DCCA can suspend or revoke licenses for failing to maintain a record of “trustworthiness, fair dealing, and financial integrity,” and after a criminal conviction “directly related to the qualifications, functions, or duties of the licensed profession or vocation.”  Wong was sentenced in July and will be serving time starting January.  It will be interesting to see if he loses his license before reporting to jail.

The success of community centered visitor management at Ha’ena State Park on the North Shore of Kauai has state officials hoping the effort can be duplicated throughout the state to create a more sustainable tourist industry.  Hawaii residents chaffed at 10.4 million visitors mobbing the state in 2019, straining the state’s park facilities.  The state park set a daily visitor cap, charges nonresidents an entry fee, and visitors must pay for parking when they use the park’s shuttle service.  Community members meet visitors when shuttles arrive to make sure they have enough water, point out lifeguards on duty, and give times to leave different hiking spots to make the last departing shuttle at 6:40 pm.  The area was a breadbasket for Native Hawaiians before the state park was created and poor management resulted in invasive plants and trees overwhelming the landscape.  Local families started caring for the park by ripping out invasive trees, restoring a traditional waterway, and planting kalo (taro) for the community.  A 60-page document on replicating the model has been published and communities like Kealakua on the Big Island and Wai’anapanapa on Maui hope to implement the program.  The Hawaii Tourism Authority and Hawaii county funded stewards at Waiuli and Lehia beach parks to manage visitor traffic.

Hawaiian Electric Company (HECO) and Maui police have come under criticism for blocking traffic out of Lahaina while the wildfires spread.  Maui police claim they were directing traffic from downed power lines even though HECO had de-energized them six hours prior and the downed lines posed no threats.  Residents spent up to 2 ½ hours trying to navigate Lahaina’s narrow streets since the two main thoroughfares were blocked by police or HECO’s utility workers.  No timeline has been established for releasing a detailed analysis of the town’s evacuation.

The University of Hawaii (UH) Wahine volleyball team started the season at a respectable 12-5 and 5-1 in the Big West Conference trailing first place UC Santa Barbara by one game.  The UH Warriors football team is off to a much slower 2-4 start, 0-1 in the Mountain West conference.  UH has a chance of improving its record since the next four opponents have losing records as well.

A lost sea turtle hatchling was recently rescued at a skate park and placed in the ocean.  Hatchlings rely on moonlight and celestial light to find the shore when emerging from their nests.  Apparently, this hatchling was one of fifty that became disoriented by artificial lights and headed mauka (towards the mountain) instead of makai (towards the ocean) while only seven of their siblings headed in the right direction.  More sea turtles are nesting on Oahu and the biggest threat to the hatchlings is artificial light.  Researchers encourage the public to refrain from using flashlights on the beach during nesting season and keep at least 10 feet from sea turtles and their nests.  The city turned off the lights at Sandy Beach on Sunday in anticipation of hatchlings emerging from six honu nests.  The lights will be turned back on when researchers verify that the eggs have hatched.


Sea Turtle Rescue


Groups of leaves were seen sprouting on Lahaina’s 150-year-old banyan tree giving the community hope that the historic tree will survive.  Arborists continue to volunteer their time to aid the tree’s recovery.

Kilauea ended less than two months of quiet with an eruption in Halemaumau’s crater on September 9th.  The eruption is currently contained in the crater and is not a threat to surrounding communities.  Vog has returned with this latest eruption.  The volcano spewed 190,000 tons of sulfur dioxide the first day and then emissions lowered to about 49,000 tons per day.

All Pro tight end Russell Francis died of a plane crash on October 1st in New York.  Francis was a quarterback for Kailua High School before playing his senior year in the mainland and going to college at Oregon.  He caught his first college pass from June Jones, who later coached at the University of Hawaii.  He played nine seasons with the New England Patriots and six with the San Francisco 49ers.  He was as a sports director for KGMB-TV Hawaii and participated in several American Savings Bank Commercials.


Friends remember Russ Francis as an imposing athlete with an iconic personality


New England Patriots and six with the San Francisco 49ers.  He was as a sports director for KGMB-TV Hawaii and participated in several American Savings Bank Commercials.

Former UH football coach Bob Wagner passed away October 3rd on the Big Island at the age of 76.  Coach Wagner headed UH’s program for nine years and was the second winningest coach behind June Jones.

Tim and Tracey welcomed a new seven-month-old yellow-lab puppy into their home, appropriately named Buddy.  Tim has decided their dogs should be named Buddy in the future, and it seems to make sense.  Many people have walked up to the puppy while walking on the beach to pet him saying hey Buddy.  They then ask what his name is.  Buddy is quite the rascal in the morning and constantly searches for things he should not have until Tim takes him on his morning walk.  He does get quite mellow once he works through his manic puppy energy first thing in the morning.  Tim and Tracey absolutely love him.


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By Tim Kelley 09 Jan, 2024
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By Tim Kelley 09 Jan, 2024
The December median price for single-family homes was $996,500 (5.1% lower than December 2022) and for condos was $510,000 (1.5% higher than December 2022). Demand continues to fall with 9.9% fewer single-family homes and 24.4% fewer condos sold this December compared to the same month last year. Single-family home sales have fallen twenty-three consecutive months and condo sales have dropped for nineteen straight months. The number of available properties, both single-family homes and condos, appears to be stabilizing yet scarce. There are still only 2.8 months of single-family home and 3.2 months of condo inventory. You can review more detailed current and past real estate market data on our website using the link below. Monthly Statistics October 2023 Market Update A U.S. Court District judge issued a summary judgement granting the Hawaii Legal Short-Term Rental Alliance (HILSTRA) a permanent injunction against a provision of Ordinance 22-7 prohibiting home rental periods between thirty and 89 days for property owners who were following the 30-day minimum rental period before the laws effective date of October 23 rd , 2022. HILSTRA successfully argued that the new law caused immediate and devastating economic harm to landlords and operators legally renting their properties. The permanent injunction will make the thirty to 89-day ban on newer rental properties difficult to enforce. The city has not decided if it will appeal the decision. An article by Civil Beat summarized decades of action or lack of action resulting in the years-long slog many homeowners and contractors experience at the Department of Planning and Permitting (DPP) waiting on permit approval. Back in the 1970’s, a contractor could obtain a building permit the same day by walking plans to each DPP department for signatures and being able to fix issues on the spot when an experienced examiner pointed them out. A loss of institutional knowledge when experienced examiners retired, increased regulation, a failure to update technology, and the removal of face-to-face interaction has resulted in November 2022 permit times of 330 days on average for a residential permit and 420 days on average for a commercial permit. DPP reported an average of a six-month delay in October, easy solar power permits have skewed the numbers since building permits still languish. DPP’s largest problem is hiring since people with an architecture or engineering background can make $20,000 to $50,000 more in the private sector and “don’t get yelled at as much.” Additionally, the Honolulu City Council issued a rash of new regulations from 2016 through 2020 requiring DPP to establish a new department and additional review step. DPP’s director has received additional funding to hire people to reduce the backlog, however, contractors are still waiting “longer than ever” for a permit in the meantime. National Home sales fell to a 13-year low in October and November sales rose slightly above October’s low due to lower mortgage rates. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes have seized up the resale housing market and negatively impacted related businesses like furniture and home improvement stores. The furniture industry and home improvement sector have experienced four straight quarters of falling sales resulting in fewer jobs. Employment related to real estate has stagnated and some real estate agents are reconsidering their career path, particularly after the court verdict that may impact the way clients pay Buyer’s Agents. Economists think mortgage rates will have to drop at least an additional percentage before more sellers become willing to trade their currently low mortgage rates for a new home with a higher rate. Some good news came in the form of growing new home construction and a rise in building permits. The Hawaii Tourism Authority (HTA) reported 731,233 visitors arrived in Hawaii this past November, essentially the same number arriving the November prior. The number is 9.6% lower than the arrivals in November 2019, just prior to the pandemic. International visitors, including Japan, continue to significantly lag the pre-pandemic numbers. In an ironic development, the six-month old panel established by Governor Josh Green to accelerate affordable housing development, approved a school impact fee waiver for a developer to convert a commercial property into a 52-unit apartment building. The waiver does not have any impact on needed building permits. Green’s emergency proclamation was issued with the goal of building 50,000 housing units statewide, but only 1,300 more affordable rental units are in the pipeline. The Department of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR) fined a Sunset Beach homeowner for illegally pouring concrete on the beach to shore up his eroding property. Desperate homeowners have littered the surrounding coastline with boulders, sandbags, and black tarps as the state struggles to enforce laws preventing shoreline hardening that leads to accelerated beach loss. Pictures Soaring hurricane insurance rates are causing some condominium complexes to secure coverage that does not completely cover replacement costs. The rising costs are occurring despite Hawaii not experiencing a direct hit in 31 years because of the global nature of the reinsurance market. An association’s decision to reduce insurance coverage can make it difficult for home buyers to obtain mortgages and pay higher rates. A local insurance expert estimates almost four hundred condo complexes do not have full coverage including luxury buildings in Kakaako. Joint Task Force Red Hill (JTFRH) announced it finished the gravity draining portion of the defueling operation of the Navy’s underground fuel tank facility on December 15 th , 2023, removing almost 150 million gallons of fuel from the site. The last tanker of fuel departed on December 20 th for the Philippines, one of several U.S. sites in the Pacific chosen to receive the drained fuel. Workers must pump about 60,000 gallons of remaining fuel and remove about 30,000 gallons of “sludge.” JTFRH scheduled the removal of the remaining fuel by the end of January, six months earlier than planned. JTF-Red Hill Commander Provides Gravity Defueling Update A jury will decide the merits of a dispute between developer Howard Hughes Corp, developer of Ward Village in Kakaako and the Honolulu Authority for Rapid Transportation (HART) over the cost of the land HART seeks to build the rail project’s Kakaako station. The estimated price tag is $200 million, and HART has already spent $23.3 million in legal fees as of 2021. Howard Hughes Corp. disagrees with HART about receiving “special benefits” and HART using the “special benefits” to calculate the amount paid for the land. HART’s “expert appraiser” valued the land HART wants to take from Howard Hughes Corp. at $14 million. There is no current plan to build the Kakaako station at the heart of the dispute after Mayor Blangiardi postponed the construction of the final 1.25 miles of the line because of cost overruns. The U.S. Army agreed to lease the state Department of Transportation at Kawaihapai Airfield, previously known as Dillingham Airfield on the North Shore, paving the way for continued commercial activity by local businesses. State has less than 30 days to reach deal with military on Dillingham Airfield Heavy rains on December 20 th caused a mudslide on the Pali Highway, closing the Honolulu-bound lanes through the busy holiday weekend. Heavy rainfall has often resulted in mudslides closing the Pali. Multiple landslides in February of 2019 caused the state to declare the Pali Highway a natural disaster area. State construction crews spent months reinforcing the hillside above the Pali Highway and extending the tunnel to protect cars from falling debris. Pali Hwy closed through weekend as crews clear landslide Contractors removed and packed up the Caltech Submillimeter Observatory telescope on Mauna Kea for shipment for Chile in December, the first of five telescopes scientists must decommission on the Mauna Kea summit to make room for the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT). TMT construction remains in limbo as the National Science Foundation completes more environmental studies and the new Mauna Kea Summit Oversight Authority takes over management of the summit. Caltech Submillimeter Observatory Telescope Removal The University of Hawaii’s (UH) new Reserve Officer Training Corps (ROTC) program commissioned its first Ensign on the deck of the Battleship, USS Missouri in December. The newly commissioned officer will serve on the USS Shiloh, based in Pearl Harbor, after completing the three-month Basic Division Officer Course. Tim graduated from Tulane University back in 1989 on a ROTC scholarship and served on the USS Cavalla, a fast-attack submarine based out of Pearl Harbor. A recently released study by an Arizona State University student and former Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology researcher reports fishing of herbivore species to less than 80% of the reef’s unfished density results in lower coral reef health due to the buildup of algae, the fish’s food. The state Department of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR) is considering additional reef fishing restrictions to prevent the overfishing of Hawaii’s coral reef systems. DLNR deployed its one millionth hatchery grown sea urchin in Kaneohe Bay to control two species of invasive seaweed that can suffocate coral reef patches in the bay. Once a month, a team collects twenty-five of the mini “seaweed mowers” and induces them to spawn resulting in larvae 24 hours later. Researchers siphon the swimming larvae off the top and place them in larvae rearing tanks to protect the delicate animals during development. After 28 days, the team grows a biofilm on clear corrugated roofing material that the larvae attach to and start to look like little urchins called spat. Three weeks later, researchers move the spat to grow-out tanks when they are the size of a pencil eraser and then deployed to the bay once they reach the size of a dime. Sea Life Park Hawaii kicked off “The Year of the Honu,” commemorating 50 years of its Honu Conservation program. The conservation program has released over 17,000 turtle hatchlings into the wild over its 50 years in operation. Sea Life Park Events The Lahaina wildfire destroyed Kohala Brewery and its owners rebuilding plan involves brewing their recipes at Kona Brewing Company. The arrangement allows Kohala Brewery to continue shipping beer to customers and take advantage of Kona Brewing Company’s state-of-the-art facility that allows for more tighter quality control and consistency. The second phase of Kohala’s recovery includes rebuilding the taproom and retail business. Oahu craft beer afficionados have a new option available, Howzit Brewing. The Kakaako brewery recently opened a brewery and tasting room in Ward Village. The owner was born on Oahu, learned his trade in the Pacific Northwest craft beer scene, and returned to Oahu to start his own enterprise. December provided a reminder of the danger involved with hiking some of Oahu’s trails. Fortunately, the hiker did not die from the fall. Rescuers found the hiker after a three-day search 1,000 feet below the Pali Notches Trail. The hiker suffered a fractured cheekbone, broken wrist, and several puncture wounds. Five units of about thirteen experienced hikers participated in the search to find the hiker. ‘It’s a miracle’: Hiker who fell 1,000 feet on Oahu trail, was missing for days thanks his rescue.  Take a look at our Another Day in Paradise's Video Another Day in Paradise: Waterfalls
By Tim Kelley 08 Dec, 2023
Stott Real Estate, Inc.
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