Blog Post

June 2023 Email Update

Tim Kelley • Sep 05, 2023

The May median sales price for single-family homes was $1,109,000 (3.9% lower than May 2022) and for condos was $505,000 (2.2% lower than May 2022).  Available inventory continues to drift higher even though new listing for single-family homes is 30.6% lower than last May and for condos is 15.6% lower due to dwindling demand.  The number of sales of single-family homes are 23.8% lower than May 2022 and for condos is 36.3% lower due to rising interest rates.  There is no real relief in site for Sellers since pending sales are also lower by double digit percentages.


You can review more detailed current and past real estate market data on our website using the link below.


Monthly Statistics


Growing numbers of international visitors, particularly from Asia, offset a drop in U.S. arrivals resulting in 1.1% more tourists in April.  Visitor spending grew 8% over last year and was 30.7% higher than April 2019.  While encouraged by increased year over year spending, hotels are concerned about the 9.7% drop in West Coast visitors, 1.2% drop in East Coast visitors, and the 8.8% drop in Canadian visitors.
 
A repeating theme in commercial real estate involves individuals bringing together small-time investors with little or no real estate experience to buy apartment buildings, raise rents, and then sell them for huge profits.  In the bust of 2010, the investment vehicle was Tenant-In-Common (TICs) purchases involving a management company buying apartment buildings, managing them for the owners who only had to attend monthly meetings to stay active for tax purposes, and eventually sell those properties when these “superior managers” turned around underperforming apartment complexes.  Now, small investors are being burned by syndications, groups of investors who would get rich off renters without doing any of the work.  Both real estate groups had the following in common:
 

  1. The syndication or management company earns a percentage of the purchase price.
  2. Collects a percentage of the rent in the form of management fees.
  3. Makes a percentage on the sale.

 
One syndication recently lost four apartment complexes totaling 3,000 units to foreclosure when the rents would no longer cover the expenses from rising interest rates.  Syndications do not have to provide regular building updates like public companies and many investors were unaware the properties were in trouble until they were near foreclosure.  In December 2021, a syndication bought a 704-unit complex, Timber Ridge, for $56.7 million with plans to double investor incomes by adding amenities and raising rents.  By the summer, the previously pristine swimming pool was green, and piles of trash littered the grounds.  Tenants began complaining about rats, mold, and illegal evictions as management failed to maintain the buildings.  The manager refused to buy new air conditioners when they broke, and staff members had to move working A/Cs to apartments with children.  The complex was lost to foreclosure just 16 months after the purchase.  These investors would have been much better off buying a duplex or single-family home and hiring a property manager.  Building a rental portfolio takes time, patience, and carefully managing leverage.
 
The Civil Beat recently published an article, “Is the Deck Stacked Against Hawaii Condo Owners,” and provided two examples of the Department of Commerce and Consumer Affairs (DCCA) failures.  The DCCA allowed one major player, Associa Hawaii, whose president serves as a DCCA director, to run the organization for months without an active broker’s license.  Associa should have forfeited all commissions illegally collected from associations and residential clients.  In a second case, another director, Chris Porter, was fined $475,000 in actual and punitive damages for violating state and federal debt collection and privacy laws in a dispute with a condo owner about his dog. The DCCA recently chose a lobbying firm for condo associations and their management companies to provide “training” for condo owners informing them of their rights.  The meeting dubbed “Condorama,” was essentially aimed at the association board members and their support staff.  The lobbying firm, Community Associations Institute, recently argued against a bill that would be able to file claims against the association’s insurance policy for leaks outside their unit causing damage.  This bill, having passed, would have helped one of Stott Property Management’s clients who has had unmitigated water damage to her unit for nine months with no action or compensation from the upstairs owner or association.  Tim recently started a Regulated Industries Complaint Office process by sending a letter to the principal broker managing the association for failing to respond to the owner or to Tim.  Tim received a letter from the association’s attorney explaining why the principal broker could ignore the emails and fail to provide access to determine if the leak had been fixed.

Is The Deck Stacked Against Hawaii Condo Owners?A June 1st Wall Street Journal article, “The New Math on Inheriting Your Parents House,” highlights the changes in the real estate market after 2021 due to inflation and rising interest rates.  Rising maintenance expenses, renovation costs, property taxes, and utilities are making it harder for heirs to hold onto inherited real estate and high interest rates make it impractical for one heir to buy out the remaining siblings.  Leaving real estate is still a common method of passing along wealth and heirs are more often selling their parents’ home for the following reasons:
 

  1. The stepped-up basis helps avoid capital gains taxes from selling a home.
  2. The parents’ furniture is undesirable to younger generations.
  3. Renovations are too costly to make the parent’s home fit the child’s taste.
  4. While primary homes are being sold more often recently, secondary homes are still likely to be kept by the heirs for a few years at a minimum.  Children should work out an agreeable schedule for family vacations and find a way to split the maintenance costs fairly.  Heirs should carefully consider their finances and make sure keeping the asset does not become too much of a financial burden since it takes time to sell a home.

 
The state legislature failed to provide funds for late rent and include a rule to require mediation prior to court-ordered eviction and plans on revisiting the measure next year.  The legislature did fund $7 million in rental assistance to prevent low-income residents from becoming homeless.  Despite the expiration of the mediation rule, judges routinely require parties to attempt mediation prior to an eviction hearing.
 
The City of Honolulu has fallen further behind in its Handivan shortage when the cost per new vehicle jumped 34% to $201,234 resulting in a purchase of 17 fewer vehicles.  The availability of its aging fleet dropped from 90% last year to 67% in March as maintenance kept some vehicles off the road and others were retired.  Apparently, the city council and mayor could not find additional funds in their annual budget to service the needy.

An Aloha United Way report highlights the struggles of families trying to make ends meet after a year of high inflation. The “household survival budget” for a family of four is $104,052, 15% higher than 2018.  According to the study, 41% of Hawaii families combined income falls below the threshold.

Heavy rains and an ancient wastewater treatment plant have created higher than allowable bacterial levels in Kailua Bay.  The Kailua Wastewater Treatment Plant’s effluent empties into Kailua Bay and the facility has continuous violated the levels set by the Clean Water Act this spring resulting in daily warnings stretching for months.  Bacterial levels exceeding six times the allowable limit was measured in Kailua Bay from April 28th to May 1st. 


Residents alarmed over ongoing ‘stench,’ high bacteria levels linked to sewage plant.The first medical respite units were set up in the state Department of Health parking lot to house homeless individuals recovering from a stay in Queen’s emergency room.  Ten units are located across the street from Queens and the village is completely fenced and security is provided.  HomeAid Hawaii built the 10-unit village and asked the community for donations to help pay for daily operations.

University of Hawaii’s (UH) Andre Ilagan, advanced farther than any other UH tennis player by advancing to the round of 16 in the NCAA tournament before losing in three sets to Ohio State’s Alexander Bernard.  Andre’s lists of first include being the first UH player to qualify twice for the NCAA tournament, first UH player to win a NCAA tournament match, and first UH player to earn Intercollegiate Tennis Association All-American after reaching the round of 16.


A second humane society shelter opened in Ewa Beach on May 20th helping alleviate some of the overcrowding at the Moiliili campus.  D.R. Horton donated $30 million to build the Hoopili campus which includes three dog pavilions, two cat pavilions, a small-animal pavilion, and a spay and neuter clinic.  Each shelter has the capacity to house 350 to 400 animals waiting for adoption.


Humane Society New LocationA fourth-generation Monk Seal was born on Kalaupapa National Historical Park in April.  The six-year-old mother was also born in the park which provides a much quieter atmosphere to raise a pup than Waikiki’s Kaimana Beach.  Waikiki fourth graders and kindergarteners named the more famous pup Pualani meaning heavenly flower.  The one advantage Waikiki-born seals receive is receiving a name better than RJ40.

Monk seal gives birth to second pup in WaikikiDisney’s Aulani Resort has been working with the Oceanic Institute of Hawaii Pacific University to breed reef fish in captivity.  Until recently, researchers have had little success in breeding reef fish.  The hotel’s efforts to collect eggs and deliver them to HPU’s Waimanalo lab has resulted in the first successful breeding of the milletseed butterflyfish, potter’s angelfish, Hawaiian cleaner wrasse, yellowtail coris, and yellowtail longnose butterflyfish.  Tim and Tracey see several of these species during their swims in Lanikai and in Waimanalo near the research center.

A Division of State Parks and the Napali Coast Ohana are partnering to head a seabird restoration p

roject at Nu’alolo Kai, a Hawaiian fishing village that existed 800 years ago.  The project aims to remove invasive species, restore native plants, and protect nests from predators like the barn owl, rats, and cats.  Three species of seabirds have recently started breeding in the area again, ao (Newell’s shearwater), akeake (band-rumped storm petrel), and ou (Bulwer’s petrel).  The seabirds’ guano is an important fertilizer that promotes plant life resulting in cleaner freshwater flowing from the forest to the coral reefs.


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By Tim Kelley 09 Jan, 2024
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By Tim Kelley 09 Jan, 2024
The December median price for single-family homes was $996,500 (5.1% lower than December 2022) and for condos was $510,000 (1.5% higher than December 2022). Demand continues to fall with 9.9% fewer single-family homes and 24.4% fewer condos sold this December compared to the same month last year. Single-family home sales have fallen twenty-three consecutive months and condo sales have dropped for nineteen straight months. The number of available properties, both single-family homes and condos, appears to be stabilizing yet scarce. There are still only 2.8 months of single-family home and 3.2 months of condo inventory. You can review more detailed current and past real estate market data on our website using the link below. Monthly Statistics October 2023 Market Update A U.S. Court District judge issued a summary judgement granting the Hawaii Legal Short-Term Rental Alliance (HILSTRA) a permanent injunction against a provision of Ordinance 22-7 prohibiting home rental periods between thirty and 89 days for property owners who were following the 30-day minimum rental period before the laws effective date of October 23 rd , 2022. HILSTRA successfully argued that the new law caused immediate and devastating economic harm to landlords and operators legally renting their properties. The permanent injunction will make the thirty to 89-day ban on newer rental properties difficult to enforce. The city has not decided if it will appeal the decision. An article by Civil Beat summarized decades of action or lack of action resulting in the years-long slog many homeowners and contractors experience at the Department of Planning and Permitting (DPP) waiting on permit approval. Back in the 1970’s, a contractor could obtain a building permit the same day by walking plans to each DPP department for signatures and being able to fix issues on the spot when an experienced examiner pointed them out. A loss of institutional knowledge when experienced examiners retired, increased regulation, a failure to update technology, and the removal of face-to-face interaction has resulted in November 2022 permit times of 330 days on average for a residential permit and 420 days on average for a commercial permit. DPP reported an average of a six-month delay in October, easy solar power permits have skewed the numbers since building permits still languish. DPP’s largest problem is hiring since people with an architecture or engineering background can make $20,000 to $50,000 more in the private sector and “don’t get yelled at as much.” Additionally, the Honolulu City Council issued a rash of new regulations from 2016 through 2020 requiring DPP to establish a new department and additional review step. DPP’s director has received additional funding to hire people to reduce the backlog, however, contractors are still waiting “longer than ever” for a permit in the meantime. National Home sales fell to a 13-year low in October and November sales rose slightly above October’s low due to lower mortgage rates. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes have seized up the resale housing market and negatively impacted related businesses like furniture and home improvement stores. The furniture industry and home improvement sector have experienced four straight quarters of falling sales resulting in fewer jobs. Employment related to real estate has stagnated and some real estate agents are reconsidering their career path, particularly after the court verdict that may impact the way clients pay Buyer’s Agents. Economists think mortgage rates will have to drop at least an additional percentage before more sellers become willing to trade their currently low mortgage rates for a new home with a higher rate. Some good news came in the form of growing new home construction and a rise in building permits. The Hawaii Tourism Authority (HTA) reported 731,233 visitors arrived in Hawaii this past November, essentially the same number arriving the November prior. The number is 9.6% lower than the arrivals in November 2019, just prior to the pandemic. International visitors, including Japan, continue to significantly lag the pre-pandemic numbers. In an ironic development, the six-month old panel established by Governor Josh Green to accelerate affordable housing development, approved a school impact fee waiver for a developer to convert a commercial property into a 52-unit apartment building. The waiver does not have any impact on needed building permits. Green’s emergency proclamation was issued with the goal of building 50,000 housing units statewide, but only 1,300 more affordable rental units are in the pipeline. The Department of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR) fined a Sunset Beach homeowner for illegally pouring concrete on the beach to shore up his eroding property. Desperate homeowners have littered the surrounding coastline with boulders, sandbags, and black tarps as the state struggles to enforce laws preventing shoreline hardening that leads to accelerated beach loss. Pictures Soaring hurricane insurance rates are causing some condominium complexes to secure coverage that does not completely cover replacement costs. The rising costs are occurring despite Hawaii not experiencing a direct hit in 31 years because of the global nature of the reinsurance market. An association’s decision to reduce insurance coverage can make it difficult for home buyers to obtain mortgages and pay higher rates. A local insurance expert estimates almost four hundred condo complexes do not have full coverage including luxury buildings in Kakaako. Joint Task Force Red Hill (JTFRH) announced it finished the gravity draining portion of the defueling operation of the Navy’s underground fuel tank facility on December 15 th , 2023, removing almost 150 million gallons of fuel from the site. The last tanker of fuel departed on December 20 th for the Philippines, one of several U.S. sites in the Pacific chosen to receive the drained fuel. Workers must pump about 60,000 gallons of remaining fuel and remove about 30,000 gallons of “sludge.” JTFRH scheduled the removal of the remaining fuel by the end of January, six months earlier than planned. JTF-Red Hill Commander Provides Gravity Defueling Update A jury will decide the merits of a dispute between developer Howard Hughes Corp, developer of Ward Village in Kakaako and the Honolulu Authority for Rapid Transportation (HART) over the cost of the land HART seeks to build the rail project’s Kakaako station. The estimated price tag is $200 million, and HART has already spent $23.3 million in legal fees as of 2021. Howard Hughes Corp. disagrees with HART about receiving “special benefits” and HART using the “special benefits” to calculate the amount paid for the land. HART’s “expert appraiser” valued the land HART wants to take from Howard Hughes Corp. at $14 million. There is no current plan to build the Kakaako station at the heart of the dispute after Mayor Blangiardi postponed the construction of the final 1.25 miles of the line because of cost overruns. The U.S. Army agreed to lease the state Department of Transportation at Kawaihapai Airfield, previously known as Dillingham Airfield on the North Shore, paving the way for continued commercial activity by local businesses. State has less than 30 days to reach deal with military on Dillingham Airfield Heavy rains on December 20 th caused a mudslide on the Pali Highway, closing the Honolulu-bound lanes through the busy holiday weekend. Heavy rainfall has often resulted in mudslides closing the Pali. Multiple landslides in February of 2019 caused the state to declare the Pali Highway a natural disaster area. State construction crews spent months reinforcing the hillside above the Pali Highway and extending the tunnel to protect cars from falling debris. Pali Hwy closed through weekend as crews clear landslide Contractors removed and packed up the Caltech Submillimeter Observatory telescope on Mauna Kea for shipment for Chile in December, the first of five telescopes scientists must decommission on the Mauna Kea summit to make room for the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT). TMT construction remains in limbo as the National Science Foundation completes more environmental studies and the new Mauna Kea Summit Oversight Authority takes over management of the summit. Caltech Submillimeter Observatory Telescope Removal The University of Hawaii’s (UH) new Reserve Officer Training Corps (ROTC) program commissioned its first Ensign on the deck of the Battleship, USS Missouri in December. The newly commissioned officer will serve on the USS Shiloh, based in Pearl Harbor, after completing the three-month Basic Division Officer Course. Tim graduated from Tulane University back in 1989 on a ROTC scholarship and served on the USS Cavalla, a fast-attack submarine based out of Pearl Harbor. A recently released study by an Arizona State University student and former Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology researcher reports fishing of herbivore species to less than 80% of the reef’s unfished density results in lower coral reef health due to the buildup of algae, the fish’s food. The state Department of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR) is considering additional reef fishing restrictions to prevent the overfishing of Hawaii’s coral reef systems. DLNR deployed its one millionth hatchery grown sea urchin in Kaneohe Bay to control two species of invasive seaweed that can suffocate coral reef patches in the bay. Once a month, a team collects twenty-five of the mini “seaweed mowers” and induces them to spawn resulting in larvae 24 hours later. Researchers siphon the swimming larvae off the top and place them in larvae rearing tanks to protect the delicate animals during development. After 28 days, the team grows a biofilm on clear corrugated roofing material that the larvae attach to and start to look like little urchins called spat. Three weeks later, researchers move the spat to grow-out tanks when they are the size of a pencil eraser and then deployed to the bay once they reach the size of a dime. Sea Life Park Hawaii kicked off “The Year of the Honu,” commemorating 50 years of its Honu Conservation program. The conservation program has released over 17,000 turtle hatchlings into the wild over its 50 years in operation. Sea Life Park Events The Lahaina wildfire destroyed Kohala Brewery and its owners rebuilding plan involves brewing their recipes at Kona Brewing Company. The arrangement allows Kohala Brewery to continue shipping beer to customers and take advantage of Kona Brewing Company’s state-of-the-art facility that allows for more tighter quality control and consistency. The second phase of Kohala’s recovery includes rebuilding the taproom and retail business. Oahu craft beer afficionados have a new option available, Howzit Brewing. The Kakaako brewery recently opened a brewery and tasting room in Ward Village. The owner was born on Oahu, learned his trade in the Pacific Northwest craft beer scene, and returned to Oahu to start his own enterprise. December provided a reminder of the danger involved with hiking some of Oahu’s trails. Fortunately, the hiker did not die from the fall. Rescuers found the hiker after a three-day search 1,000 feet below the Pali Notches Trail. The hiker suffered a fractured cheekbone, broken wrist, and several puncture wounds. Five units of about thirteen experienced hikers participated in the search to find the hiker. ‘It’s a miracle’: Hiker who fell 1,000 feet on Oahu trail, was missing for days thanks his rescue.  Take a look at our Another Day in Paradise's Video Another Day in Paradise: Waterfalls
By Tim Kelley 08 Dec, 2023
Stott Real Estate, Inc.
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