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July 2023 Email Update

Tim Kelley • Sep 05, 2023

The June median price for single-family homes was $1,050,000 (4.5% less than June 2022) and for condos was $470,000 (4.5% less than June 2022).  Demand continues to drop significantly prior with 30.5% fewer single-family homes selling and 24.9% fewer condos selling than in June 2022.  Fewer families are moving since they are unwilling to trade their current 2.5% mortgage rate on their existing home for a 7.0% mortgage rate on a new home.  17.1% fewer single-family home listings and 22% fewer condo listings were added to the market in June.  Total inventory has crept up further with 14.8% more single-family homes and 16.1% more condos available as property takes longer to sell in this high mortgage rate environment.


You can review more detailed current and past real estate market data on our website using the link below.


Monthly Statistics


The national median price for existing home sales posted its biggest year-to-year decline since December 2011.  The May 2023 median price was 3.1% lower than the previous year as rising mortgage rates have slowed the housing market.  Existing home prices have dropped year-to-year for the fourth straight month and were expected to be larger but more homeowners with low fixed mortgage rates are staying put keeping the supply of homes low.  Bidding wars still exist in certain locations.


The Wall Street Journal described in a recent article what Stott Property Management, LLC has seen over the past two months with some of its rentals.  Tenants are gaining the upper hand as the COVID fueled rent increases have faded.  Asking rents declined 0.6% in May compared to the same month one year ago resulting in the first decrease since 2008 other than a brief drop during the pandemic shutdowns in early 2020.  One landlord recently refused to negotiate when a tenant balked at an 11% rent increase resulting in an unnecessary vacancy.  The tenants noticed that the advertised rate was lower after they moved, and they would have stayed had they been offered that rent while they were still living there.  Stott Property Management, LLC has recommended keeping the rent that same when offering one-year lease extensions for many rental properties.  One owner asked after hearing the recommendation when Tim had recommended raising the rent three months earlier.  Tim mentioned the change in the market and cautioned that a vacancy would cost more than any potential rent increase would be.  Tim suggested only raising the asking rent if the tenant moved and the property became vacant.  Vacancy rates have risen 2.6% as tenants move back in with family or find roommates to share the expense.  The fall in asking rents follows the national median sales price decline of 1.7%, the largest yearly drop in eleven years.


The Hawaii Authority for Rapid Transportation started service on Skyline (the train service’s new name) on Friday, 6/30/2023, four years later and $5.5 billion more expensive than advertised in 2004 by then Mayor Mufi Hanneman.  The project confounded four mayors and was the nail in the coffin of Kirk Caldwell’s failed campaign for governor.  Tim and Tracey joined 71,000 others in riding the train system from rusted out Halawa stadium to Kapolei and back.  The views were inspiring and the absence of development around the stations was evident.  Most stations were blocks away from any shopping and restaurants.


Skyline HART’s woes with the rail project continue as an eminent domain dispute with Ward Village developer Howard Hughes Corp. proceeds to court and $100 million spent on moving utilities will go to waste since the rail will end before reaching that area.
 
Construction began on a new affordable rental housing tower after a three-year delay.  The original plan called for three towers near the Halawa rail station and was rejected by the neighborhood board for the same reasons other boards reject the housing.  The project included too many units and too little off-street parking.  For some reason, council members can’t fathom that people with lower income still need cars to get to work.  The revised project calling for only two towers and more parking was approved by the neighborhood board last year.  The tower is scheduled to be ready for residents in the summer of 2025 with monthly rents projected to be as low as $493 for a studio and $1,418 for a four-bedroom unit.
 
Mayor Rick Blangiardi signed the fiscal year 2024 budget totaling $3.41 billion, a 2.7% increase over the previous year focusing on affordable housing and public safety.  The budget includes a $350 property tax rebate for all property owners that have a homestead exemption.
 
The Honolulu City Council approved a reduction in property tax rates for Residential A properties from $4.5 per $1,000 of value to $4 per $1,000 of value, saving property owners who have not filed for a residential property tax exemption $500 per year in taxes.
 
The City and County of Honolulu reopened its rent and utility relief program to 2,000 applicants on June 13th and closed the site just two hours later after reaching capacity.  The program is being funded by $25 million in state and city recovery funds.
 
The state Department of Health approved the Joint Task Force-Red Hill defueling plan which will take place with the following steps.

  1. Repairs to Red Hill facility and pipelines.
  2. Operational plan to drain surge tanks at Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam (separate of Red Hill Fuel Tanks).
  3. Fill repaired pipeline with fuel to prepare for tank draining.
  4. Operational plan to drain main Red Hill tanks and tank bottoms.
  5. Removal of fuel from pipelines using gravity drainage.
  6. The operation plan to remove the final 100,000 to 400,000 gallons of fuel remaining in pipelines and surge tanks following gravity drainage.

 
The Honolulu Planning Commission reviewed the city’s request for a two-year extension to find a replacement site for the Waimanalo Gulch Sanitary Landfill in Kapolei.  The city is focusing its search for a new landfill on federally owned property under purview of the military.  Development costs for the new site are expected to range between $60 million and $80 million.


Kamaaina, Hawaii residents, will now be able to visit Hanauma Bay Nature preserve from 6:45 am to 1:30 pm without having a walk-in ticket or making an online reservation.  The previous rule allowed residents to visit the park without a ticket or on-line reservation until 9:00 am.  Active-duty military still get free admission with ID but must make an on-line reservation.


Hanauma Bay Oahu Hawaii | 4K Drone VideoU.S. Marines stationed at Kaneohe Marine Corps Base are cleared to operate their new Reaper drones, MQ-9A remotely piloted aircraft, and received its first two Reapers in April.  The new drones replace the RQ-21A Blackjack drones the Marines previously used and can fly much higher, for longer distances, and can be refueled in the air by tanker planes.  The Marines are transitioning from desert warfare and returning to their Naval roots with an emphasis of island and coastal operations.  Marines train to disrupt supply lines and use missile batteries to attach enemy ships with an emphasis on the South China Sea.


Kilauea started erupting again June 7th drawing large crowds to witness thirteen-to-thirty-foot lava geysers that added thirty feet to Halemaumau’s crater floor.  The eruption is currently contained in Halemaumau crater and provides no threat to surrounding neighborhoods.  The brief eruption paused on June 20th.

Kīlauea eruption overflight video - June 7, 2023Arizona State University is dedicating $25 million to build a new facility in Kailua-Kona (on the Big Island) to house 300,000 coral colonies and help restore a 120-mile stretch of coral reef on the western side of the Big Island.  The new facility will have the capacity to grow one million coral colonies per year.  Scientists from Asner labs created detailed maps of nearshore coral reefs of the main Hawaiian Islands taking pictures with a laser-guided imaging spectroscopy camera to a depth of fifty feet.  The study documented vast areas of coral decline and degradation from overfishing and rising ocean temperatures.  Hawaii reefs have lost over two-thirds of their reef fish over the past fifteen years.


The state is partnering with a Big Island company to establish a 2.5-acre sandlewood seed orchard as an effort to restore native forests across the island chain.  Sandlewood is considered a hemiparasitic plant because it pulls some of its water and nutrients from adjacent “host” trees.  Iliahi (sandlewood in Hawaiian) was highly sought after for its fragrant wood and oil and its nuts were an important food source for Hawaiians.  The oil was used for waterproofing, to treat skin ailments, and making tools and crafts.  The company started with 3,900 sandal wood on another 3,000 acres of land and has grown the nursery to over 150,000 trees.  The company, Haloa Aina, has orders for 160,000 seedlings this year.


Kaena Point Natural Area Reserve celebrated its 40th anniversary with a thriving albatross colony.  An estimated 30,000 seabirds’ nest in the reserve and ninety-eight albatrosses had nests this year.  No seabirds nested in the area 40 years ago when the reserve was created, and the number of nests returned as vegetation returned.  The area is the only protected place in the world where the public can walk un-escorted on a trail next to nesting albatrosses.

Honolulu entrepreneur and fellow Hawaii tennis player, Tom Park, and his partner, Justin Park (unrelated), visited Chicago to collect the James Beard award for Outstanding Bar in early June.  The Parks started the bar, Bar Leather Apron, seven years ago in Downtown Honolulu.  The 25-seat bar serves custom cocktails and has an extensive collection of fine whiskeys.  The website is provided below.


Bar Leather Apron


Kailua based Lanikai Brewery is expanding its operations on Oahu through a crowd-funding initiative to open tasting rooms and restaurants in Haleiwa, Hilo, and another unnamed location on a neighbor island.  The fundraising campaign ends July 9th and the minimum investment for a share of the company is $250.  The company hopes to raise $1 million through the campaign.  Lanikai Brewery currently delivers beer to 332 sites around the country.  The website is provided below:



Lanikai Brewing | Become An Owner

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By Tim Kelley 09 Jan, 2024
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By Tim Kelley 09 Jan, 2024
The December median price for single-family homes was $996,500 (5.1% lower than December 2022) and for condos was $510,000 (1.5% higher than December 2022). Demand continues to fall with 9.9% fewer single-family homes and 24.4% fewer condos sold this December compared to the same month last year. Single-family home sales have fallen twenty-three consecutive months and condo sales have dropped for nineteen straight months. The number of available properties, both single-family homes and condos, appears to be stabilizing yet scarce. There are still only 2.8 months of single-family home and 3.2 months of condo inventory. You can review more detailed current and past real estate market data on our website using the link below. Monthly Statistics October 2023 Market Update A U.S. Court District judge issued a summary judgement granting the Hawaii Legal Short-Term Rental Alliance (HILSTRA) a permanent injunction against a provision of Ordinance 22-7 prohibiting home rental periods between thirty and 89 days for property owners who were following the 30-day minimum rental period before the laws effective date of October 23 rd , 2022. HILSTRA successfully argued that the new law caused immediate and devastating economic harm to landlords and operators legally renting their properties. The permanent injunction will make the thirty to 89-day ban on newer rental properties difficult to enforce. The city has not decided if it will appeal the decision. An article by Civil Beat summarized decades of action or lack of action resulting in the years-long slog many homeowners and contractors experience at the Department of Planning and Permitting (DPP) waiting on permit approval. Back in the 1970’s, a contractor could obtain a building permit the same day by walking plans to each DPP department for signatures and being able to fix issues on the spot when an experienced examiner pointed them out. A loss of institutional knowledge when experienced examiners retired, increased regulation, a failure to update technology, and the removal of face-to-face interaction has resulted in November 2022 permit times of 330 days on average for a residential permit and 420 days on average for a commercial permit. DPP reported an average of a six-month delay in October, easy solar power permits have skewed the numbers since building permits still languish. DPP’s largest problem is hiring since people with an architecture or engineering background can make $20,000 to $50,000 more in the private sector and “don’t get yelled at as much.” Additionally, the Honolulu City Council issued a rash of new regulations from 2016 through 2020 requiring DPP to establish a new department and additional review step. DPP’s director has received additional funding to hire people to reduce the backlog, however, contractors are still waiting “longer than ever” for a permit in the meantime. National Home sales fell to a 13-year low in October and November sales rose slightly above October’s low due to lower mortgage rates. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes have seized up the resale housing market and negatively impacted related businesses like furniture and home improvement stores. The furniture industry and home improvement sector have experienced four straight quarters of falling sales resulting in fewer jobs. Employment related to real estate has stagnated and some real estate agents are reconsidering their career path, particularly after the court verdict that may impact the way clients pay Buyer’s Agents. Economists think mortgage rates will have to drop at least an additional percentage before more sellers become willing to trade their currently low mortgage rates for a new home with a higher rate. Some good news came in the form of growing new home construction and a rise in building permits. The Hawaii Tourism Authority (HTA) reported 731,233 visitors arrived in Hawaii this past November, essentially the same number arriving the November prior. The number is 9.6% lower than the arrivals in November 2019, just prior to the pandemic. International visitors, including Japan, continue to significantly lag the pre-pandemic numbers. In an ironic development, the six-month old panel established by Governor Josh Green to accelerate affordable housing development, approved a school impact fee waiver for a developer to convert a commercial property into a 52-unit apartment building. The waiver does not have any impact on needed building permits. Green’s emergency proclamation was issued with the goal of building 50,000 housing units statewide, but only 1,300 more affordable rental units are in the pipeline. The Department of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR) fined a Sunset Beach homeowner for illegally pouring concrete on the beach to shore up his eroding property. Desperate homeowners have littered the surrounding coastline with boulders, sandbags, and black tarps as the state struggles to enforce laws preventing shoreline hardening that leads to accelerated beach loss. Pictures Soaring hurricane insurance rates are causing some condominium complexes to secure coverage that does not completely cover replacement costs. The rising costs are occurring despite Hawaii not experiencing a direct hit in 31 years because of the global nature of the reinsurance market. An association’s decision to reduce insurance coverage can make it difficult for home buyers to obtain mortgages and pay higher rates. A local insurance expert estimates almost four hundred condo complexes do not have full coverage including luxury buildings in Kakaako. Joint Task Force Red Hill (JTFRH) announced it finished the gravity draining portion of the defueling operation of the Navy’s underground fuel tank facility on December 15 th , 2023, removing almost 150 million gallons of fuel from the site. The last tanker of fuel departed on December 20 th for the Philippines, one of several U.S. sites in the Pacific chosen to receive the drained fuel. Workers must pump about 60,000 gallons of remaining fuel and remove about 30,000 gallons of “sludge.” JTFRH scheduled the removal of the remaining fuel by the end of January, six months earlier than planned. JTF-Red Hill Commander Provides Gravity Defueling Update A jury will decide the merits of a dispute between developer Howard Hughes Corp, developer of Ward Village in Kakaako and the Honolulu Authority for Rapid Transportation (HART) over the cost of the land HART seeks to build the rail project’s Kakaako station. The estimated price tag is $200 million, and HART has already spent $23.3 million in legal fees as of 2021. Howard Hughes Corp. disagrees with HART about receiving “special benefits” and HART using the “special benefits” to calculate the amount paid for the land. HART’s “expert appraiser” valued the land HART wants to take from Howard Hughes Corp. at $14 million. There is no current plan to build the Kakaako station at the heart of the dispute after Mayor Blangiardi postponed the construction of the final 1.25 miles of the line because of cost overruns. The U.S. Army agreed to lease the state Department of Transportation at Kawaihapai Airfield, previously known as Dillingham Airfield on the North Shore, paving the way for continued commercial activity by local businesses. State has less than 30 days to reach deal with military on Dillingham Airfield Heavy rains on December 20 th caused a mudslide on the Pali Highway, closing the Honolulu-bound lanes through the busy holiday weekend. Heavy rainfall has often resulted in mudslides closing the Pali. Multiple landslides in February of 2019 caused the state to declare the Pali Highway a natural disaster area. State construction crews spent months reinforcing the hillside above the Pali Highway and extending the tunnel to protect cars from falling debris. Pali Hwy closed through weekend as crews clear landslide Contractors removed and packed up the Caltech Submillimeter Observatory telescope on Mauna Kea for shipment for Chile in December, the first of five telescopes scientists must decommission on the Mauna Kea summit to make room for the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT). TMT construction remains in limbo as the National Science Foundation completes more environmental studies and the new Mauna Kea Summit Oversight Authority takes over management of the summit. Caltech Submillimeter Observatory Telescope Removal The University of Hawaii’s (UH) new Reserve Officer Training Corps (ROTC) program commissioned its first Ensign on the deck of the Battleship, USS Missouri in December. The newly commissioned officer will serve on the USS Shiloh, based in Pearl Harbor, after completing the three-month Basic Division Officer Course. Tim graduated from Tulane University back in 1989 on a ROTC scholarship and served on the USS Cavalla, a fast-attack submarine based out of Pearl Harbor. A recently released study by an Arizona State University student and former Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology researcher reports fishing of herbivore species to less than 80% of the reef’s unfished density results in lower coral reef health due to the buildup of algae, the fish’s food. The state Department of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR) is considering additional reef fishing restrictions to prevent the overfishing of Hawaii’s coral reef systems. DLNR deployed its one millionth hatchery grown sea urchin in Kaneohe Bay to control two species of invasive seaweed that can suffocate coral reef patches in the bay. Once a month, a team collects twenty-five of the mini “seaweed mowers” and induces them to spawn resulting in larvae 24 hours later. Researchers siphon the swimming larvae off the top and place them in larvae rearing tanks to protect the delicate animals during development. After 28 days, the team grows a biofilm on clear corrugated roofing material that the larvae attach to and start to look like little urchins called spat. Three weeks later, researchers move the spat to grow-out tanks when they are the size of a pencil eraser and then deployed to the bay once they reach the size of a dime. Sea Life Park Hawaii kicked off “The Year of the Honu,” commemorating 50 years of its Honu Conservation program. The conservation program has released over 17,000 turtle hatchlings into the wild over its 50 years in operation. Sea Life Park Events The Lahaina wildfire destroyed Kohala Brewery and its owners rebuilding plan involves brewing their recipes at Kona Brewing Company. The arrangement allows Kohala Brewery to continue shipping beer to customers and take advantage of Kona Brewing Company’s state-of-the-art facility that allows for more tighter quality control and consistency. The second phase of Kohala’s recovery includes rebuilding the taproom and retail business. Oahu craft beer afficionados have a new option available, Howzit Brewing. The Kakaako brewery recently opened a brewery and tasting room in Ward Village. The owner was born on Oahu, learned his trade in the Pacific Northwest craft beer scene, and returned to Oahu to start his own enterprise. December provided a reminder of the danger involved with hiking some of Oahu’s trails. Fortunately, the hiker did not die from the fall. Rescuers found the hiker after a three-day search 1,000 feet below the Pali Notches Trail. The hiker suffered a fractured cheekbone, broken wrist, and several puncture wounds. Five units of about thirteen experienced hikers participated in the search to find the hiker. ‘It’s a miracle’: Hiker who fell 1,000 feet on Oahu trail, was missing for days thanks his rescue.  Take a look at our Another Day in Paradise's Video Another Day in Paradise: Waterfalls
By Tim Kelley 08 Dec, 2023
Stott Real Estate, Inc.
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