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April 2023 Email Update

Tim Kelley • Sep 05, 2023

The March median sales price for single-family homes was $1,083,750 (5.8% lower than March 2022) and for condos was $536,000 (4.0% higher than March 2022).  Demand continues to crater with 26.5% fewer single-family homes and 33.9% fewer condos sold compared to the same month last year and pending sales are more than 30% lower for both categories.  Inventory continues to grow with 2.1 months of single family homes available and 2.4 months of condos available despite fewer new properties coming on the market.


You can review more detailed current and past real estate market data on our website using the link below.


Monthly Statistics

An estimated 29,684 Hawaii residents left for the mainland from 2020 to 2022 for economic reasons.  The state experienced a greater than average impact from the COVID-19 government restrictions has recovered only 95% of its 2019 GDP and only 83% of the revenue generated by visitors.  Oahu experienced an even greater out migration.  31,682 residents left Oahu leaving its population below one million residents.  The population loss has been a drag on the county’s economic recovery in the form of lower household consumption and a growing labor shortage.  The rest of the nation has fully recovered economically from the pandemic while Hawaii continues to struggle. 


Hawaii’s Chief State Economist sees the population shrinking even further due to Hawaii’s high cost of living and rapidly aging population. Tracey just returned from a trip on the East Coast and was reminded how much cheaper it is to live on the mainland with a trip to the grocery store serving as a serious eye opener.


Rising interest rates are rippling through the national rental market and causing investors to pause the rapid deal-making of the past two years.  1st quarter rental apartment sales have dropped 74% compared to the 1st quarter of 2022.  Not only have rising interest rates made financing more expensive, the bank failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank have made other institutions more cautious.  Flat, and in some areas, decreasing rents have removed another popular strategy of would-be buyers since they can no longer raise rents to support the higher purchase prices.  Multi-family building prices have dropped 8.7% nationally and further declines could force some owners to sell when their short-term, floating rate debt comes due.  Owners may be forced to sell their recently acquired properties if their monthly cash flow does not cover the financing costs.  Rental houses have joined other “safe investments” as a lesson in risk management.  The advantages of diversification remain clear as some mainland rental property values have fallen nearly 21% over the past year.


The city has hired a bill collector to pursue 20 owners of vacation rentals for violations of Ordinance 22-7.  The city first gives a violator 30 days to correct the deficiency, then has two months to pay the fine issued, and then the city sends a demand letter giving the violator three more months to pay.  71 of the 512 violations issued have reached the level of sending a demand letter.  A U.S. District Judge issued an order enjoining the city from enforcing the law claiming the new ordinance violates the U.S. Constitution.  The plaintiffs in the case claim in a January 20 letter that the city’s enforcement actions violate the preliminary injunction.  The city has not responded to the January 20 letter and a conference call to resolve the issue has been scheduled.


The Hawaii Department of Natural Resources (DLNR) continues to try and reverse course against shoreline hardening along the North Shore after years of giving emergency relief to owners whose houses are threatened by beachside erosion.  The latest involves an owner who was allowed to install rocks and “beach burritos” to protect his property starting in 2002.  The emergency barriers expired in 2020 and the state has found that the owner installed new material and contractors poured concrete to secure the rocks previously installed.  The state has fined the owner $188,000 over 18 months and the owner has appealed a rejection of his seawall permit.  The owner has operated the property as a vacation rental starting in 2015.


Chronic erosion is erasing most North Shore beachesState legislators are turning to the visitor industry again for more revenue, this time in the form of blanket user fees to visit state parks, beaches, forests, and hiking trails.  The bill has the support of state departments and state funded nonprofits and has generated concern from the visitor industry.  The bill does not identify how a new law would be implemented and enforced while generating visitor confusion relative to beaches and trails that the state owns.  The goal of the bill is to generate funding to educate visitors and maintain the state’s vast environmental treasures.


Wet weather has delayed the state Department of Transportation’s Pali Highway repaving project on the Honolulu side.  Remaining work includes lower and upper paving, manhole adjustments, traffic signal detectors, re-installation of raised sidewalks, new markings, and new traffic signs.  Additional improvements include gutter and curb improvements and eliminating some U-turns at intersections.


The city has allocated $43.6 million to begin a project to refurbish the Neil S. Blaisdell Center, temporarily closing parts of the entertainment venue from July 2023 through June 2024.  The project will upgrade the center’s failing fire suppression system, replace air conditioning cooling towers, exterior roofing, above-stage grid structure, and repair concrete spalling.  The mayor announced the project stating that the upgrades of the 60-year complex are long overdue.  Will the state notice and focus its attention on the convention center’s roof?


Major renovations planned for Blaisdell CenterHonolulu’s Department of Planning and Permitting (DPP) proposed its 2024 budget and surprise, they are asking for more funding to dig out of its self-induced permitting hole.  The director calls for an across the board 26% increase for salaries for some unstated reason.  The director has also prioritized filling 60 of the 100 vacancies plaguing the department. Apparently, adding personnel is the only way the government can streamline their processes.  The Honolulu City Council just passed on its first reading a bill to allow a third-party to review and certify building plans.


The 75th Ranger Regiment, an elite Army unit who has deployed almost continuously over the past two decades to some of the most dangerous parts of the world, trained on Oahu during the week of March 27th to prepare for a new environment, the jungles of the Pacific.  The Rangers have operated most recently in Iraq and Afghanistan, and stated they have a lot to learn about operating in the Pacific Theatre.  The training had them land at Bellows Training Center and move carefully through the thick jungle as part of the Lightning Academy based in Wahiawa.


The U.S. Navy has approved a $2.8 billion Pearl Harbor Dry Dock replacement to replace Drydock 3 which will become functionally obsolete when the Navy retires its last Los Angeles Class submarine.  The dry dock was built in 1942 and its larger replacement will be able to service the newer Virginia class submarines and larger surface warships.  The project is estimated to take three years to complete.


US Navy to Construct New Dry Dock at Pearl HarborHawaii Convention Center Attendees have a new activity to explore between seminars.  Guests can go spelunking in the stairwells due to the legislature’s failures to provide funds to fix the roof.  Stalactites have formed in a stairwell and the unmitigated water damage threatens the structural integrity of the convention center.  Last year, the legislature only approved $15 million towards a $64 million repair project and the bill expects to grow to $88 million by 2027.  Heavy rain on Sunday removed another 5 conference rooms from service and forced staff to put out bins to catch leaking rainwater during the final ceremony of Kawaii Kon, a three-day event celebrating Japanese anime, gaming, and illustration.


DLNR has pulled support for the $10 million cost of restoring Kaanapali beach to it width back in 1988.  A group of critics is concerned about damage to the reef from dredging up sand offshore and using public funds to restore a beach the benefits privately owned hotels along the famous stretch of Maui beach.  The legislature appropriated $5.2 million for the project and DLNR has been tasked with overseeing the project for the state.


The University of Hawaii (UH) Wahine basketball team repeated as the Big West Conference tournament champions and earned an automatic berth to the NCAA tournament.  The Wahine came back from a 15-point halftime deficit to beat UC Santa Barbara in the final seconds of the final.  The Wahine are seeded 14th in their region and are scheduled to play 3rdseeded Louisiana State University in Baton Rouge losing 73-50.  LSU’s depth and talent resulted in only two losses in the regular season, one to #1 ranked South Carolina and a second in an upset to #24 ranked Tennessee in the SEC final.


The U.S. Mint released a commemorative quarter for hula kumu legend, Edith Kanaka’ole, an award-winning composer, chanter, and master hula instructor who taught at Hawaii Community College and the University of Hawaii Hilo.  Here is a link to the U.S. Mint.


Edith Kanakaʻole QuarterA football field sized space object was discovered by a Hawaii observatory as it passed through the solar system.  The comet, Oumuamua, became the center of wild theories due to its odd shape and the strange gasses it expelled.  Oumuamua means from afar arriving first which is appropriate since it is the first known object to enter our solar system from interstellar space.  The water rich comet traveled about 96,000 miles per hour and took a hook turn past the sun to continue its journey into the Milky Way.  Theories involving interstellar space craft originated from the comet’s gaseous propelled trajectory that defied gravity.


Scientists offer "compelling non-alien explanation" for enigmatic cigar-shaped object that zoomed past Earth in 2017Hawaii loves to count wildlife and March 16th was the “Every Kolea Counts” event that occurred in Hawaii.  A webinar at noon talked about the Pacific Golden-Plovers, their habitats, and their behaviors.  The National Marine Sanctuaries hosted the event whose aim is to educate the community about marine wildlife in both formal and informal settings.


The state is moving forward to release millions of incompatible male mosquitos in Maui as a last-ditch effort to save a couple of species of Hawaii honeycreepers that are on the brink of extinction due to mosquito-borne avian malaria.  Conservationists hope the project saves the endangered birds and prevents additional honeycreepers from making the list.

A  52-acre lagoon park opened in Ewa Beach on Saturday, 3/25/2023, and includes Hawaii’s first deep water standing wave pool.  The $112 million complex includes three restaurants, a coffee shop and bar, two event lawns, boardwalk, firepit and terrace, and the Nalo Kai Club with private lounge.  The park replaces Haseko’s original plan to build a marina for the Hoakalei development.



One of Hawaii’s best known bottled water companies, Hawaiian Isles Water Company, has been shut down after filing for bankruptcy.  The bankruptcy judge has appointed a trustee to place the company’s equipment in storage proceeding a planned auction.

Tim and seven teammates traveled to San Diego and represented Hawaii in the Tom Fey USTA Tri-Level National Invitational on March 17th, 18th, and 19th.  Tim has attended about 15 national tournaments over the past decade and the teams usually finish somewhere near the middle of the pack.  March turned out to be different with the men’s Hawaii team taking the national crown finishing first out of 17 teams.


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By Tim Kelley 09 Jan, 2024
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By Tim Kelley 09 Jan, 2024
The December median price for single-family homes was $996,500 (5.1% lower than December 2022) and for condos was $510,000 (1.5% higher than December 2022). Demand continues to fall with 9.9% fewer single-family homes and 24.4% fewer condos sold this December compared to the same month last year. Single-family home sales have fallen twenty-three consecutive months and condo sales have dropped for nineteen straight months. The number of available properties, both single-family homes and condos, appears to be stabilizing yet scarce. There are still only 2.8 months of single-family home and 3.2 months of condo inventory. You can review more detailed current and past real estate market data on our website using the link below. Monthly Statistics October 2023 Market Update A U.S. Court District judge issued a summary judgement granting the Hawaii Legal Short-Term Rental Alliance (HILSTRA) a permanent injunction against a provision of Ordinance 22-7 prohibiting home rental periods between thirty and 89 days for property owners who were following the 30-day minimum rental period before the laws effective date of October 23 rd , 2022. HILSTRA successfully argued that the new law caused immediate and devastating economic harm to landlords and operators legally renting their properties. The permanent injunction will make the thirty to 89-day ban on newer rental properties difficult to enforce. The city has not decided if it will appeal the decision. An article by Civil Beat summarized decades of action or lack of action resulting in the years-long slog many homeowners and contractors experience at the Department of Planning and Permitting (DPP) waiting on permit approval. Back in the 1970’s, a contractor could obtain a building permit the same day by walking plans to each DPP department for signatures and being able to fix issues on the spot when an experienced examiner pointed them out. A loss of institutional knowledge when experienced examiners retired, increased regulation, a failure to update technology, and the removal of face-to-face interaction has resulted in November 2022 permit times of 330 days on average for a residential permit and 420 days on average for a commercial permit. DPP reported an average of a six-month delay in October, easy solar power permits have skewed the numbers since building permits still languish. DPP’s largest problem is hiring since people with an architecture or engineering background can make $20,000 to $50,000 more in the private sector and “don’t get yelled at as much.” Additionally, the Honolulu City Council issued a rash of new regulations from 2016 through 2020 requiring DPP to establish a new department and additional review step. DPP’s director has received additional funding to hire people to reduce the backlog, however, contractors are still waiting “longer than ever” for a permit in the meantime. National Home sales fell to a 13-year low in October and November sales rose slightly above October’s low due to lower mortgage rates. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes have seized up the resale housing market and negatively impacted related businesses like furniture and home improvement stores. The furniture industry and home improvement sector have experienced four straight quarters of falling sales resulting in fewer jobs. Employment related to real estate has stagnated and some real estate agents are reconsidering their career path, particularly after the court verdict that may impact the way clients pay Buyer’s Agents. Economists think mortgage rates will have to drop at least an additional percentage before more sellers become willing to trade their currently low mortgage rates for a new home with a higher rate. Some good news came in the form of growing new home construction and a rise in building permits. The Hawaii Tourism Authority (HTA) reported 731,233 visitors arrived in Hawaii this past November, essentially the same number arriving the November prior. The number is 9.6% lower than the arrivals in November 2019, just prior to the pandemic. International visitors, including Japan, continue to significantly lag the pre-pandemic numbers. In an ironic development, the six-month old panel established by Governor Josh Green to accelerate affordable housing development, approved a school impact fee waiver for a developer to convert a commercial property into a 52-unit apartment building. The waiver does not have any impact on needed building permits. Green’s emergency proclamation was issued with the goal of building 50,000 housing units statewide, but only 1,300 more affordable rental units are in the pipeline. The Department of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR) fined a Sunset Beach homeowner for illegally pouring concrete on the beach to shore up his eroding property. Desperate homeowners have littered the surrounding coastline with boulders, sandbags, and black tarps as the state struggles to enforce laws preventing shoreline hardening that leads to accelerated beach loss. Pictures Soaring hurricane insurance rates are causing some condominium complexes to secure coverage that does not completely cover replacement costs. The rising costs are occurring despite Hawaii not experiencing a direct hit in 31 years because of the global nature of the reinsurance market. An association’s decision to reduce insurance coverage can make it difficult for home buyers to obtain mortgages and pay higher rates. A local insurance expert estimates almost four hundred condo complexes do not have full coverage including luxury buildings in Kakaako. Joint Task Force Red Hill (JTFRH) announced it finished the gravity draining portion of the defueling operation of the Navy’s underground fuel tank facility on December 15 th , 2023, removing almost 150 million gallons of fuel from the site. The last tanker of fuel departed on December 20 th for the Philippines, one of several U.S. sites in the Pacific chosen to receive the drained fuel. Workers must pump about 60,000 gallons of remaining fuel and remove about 30,000 gallons of “sludge.” JTFRH scheduled the removal of the remaining fuel by the end of January, six months earlier than planned. JTF-Red Hill Commander Provides Gravity Defueling Update A jury will decide the merits of a dispute between developer Howard Hughes Corp, developer of Ward Village in Kakaako and the Honolulu Authority for Rapid Transportation (HART) over the cost of the land HART seeks to build the rail project’s Kakaako station. The estimated price tag is $200 million, and HART has already spent $23.3 million in legal fees as of 2021. Howard Hughes Corp. disagrees with HART about receiving “special benefits” and HART using the “special benefits” to calculate the amount paid for the land. HART’s “expert appraiser” valued the land HART wants to take from Howard Hughes Corp. at $14 million. There is no current plan to build the Kakaako station at the heart of the dispute after Mayor Blangiardi postponed the construction of the final 1.25 miles of the line because of cost overruns. The U.S. Army agreed to lease the state Department of Transportation at Kawaihapai Airfield, previously known as Dillingham Airfield on the North Shore, paving the way for continued commercial activity by local businesses. State has less than 30 days to reach deal with military on Dillingham Airfield Heavy rains on December 20 th caused a mudslide on the Pali Highway, closing the Honolulu-bound lanes through the busy holiday weekend. Heavy rainfall has often resulted in mudslides closing the Pali. Multiple landslides in February of 2019 caused the state to declare the Pali Highway a natural disaster area. State construction crews spent months reinforcing the hillside above the Pali Highway and extending the tunnel to protect cars from falling debris. Pali Hwy closed through weekend as crews clear landslide Contractors removed and packed up the Caltech Submillimeter Observatory telescope on Mauna Kea for shipment for Chile in December, the first of five telescopes scientists must decommission on the Mauna Kea summit to make room for the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT). TMT construction remains in limbo as the National Science Foundation completes more environmental studies and the new Mauna Kea Summit Oversight Authority takes over management of the summit. Caltech Submillimeter Observatory Telescope Removal The University of Hawaii’s (UH) new Reserve Officer Training Corps (ROTC) program commissioned its first Ensign on the deck of the Battleship, USS Missouri in December. The newly commissioned officer will serve on the USS Shiloh, based in Pearl Harbor, after completing the three-month Basic Division Officer Course. Tim graduated from Tulane University back in 1989 on a ROTC scholarship and served on the USS Cavalla, a fast-attack submarine based out of Pearl Harbor. A recently released study by an Arizona State University student and former Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology researcher reports fishing of herbivore species to less than 80% of the reef’s unfished density results in lower coral reef health due to the buildup of algae, the fish’s food. The state Department of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR) is considering additional reef fishing restrictions to prevent the overfishing of Hawaii’s coral reef systems. DLNR deployed its one millionth hatchery grown sea urchin in Kaneohe Bay to control two species of invasive seaweed that can suffocate coral reef patches in the bay. Once a month, a team collects twenty-five of the mini “seaweed mowers” and induces them to spawn resulting in larvae 24 hours later. Researchers siphon the swimming larvae off the top and place them in larvae rearing tanks to protect the delicate animals during development. After 28 days, the team grows a biofilm on clear corrugated roofing material that the larvae attach to and start to look like little urchins called spat. Three weeks later, researchers move the spat to grow-out tanks when they are the size of a pencil eraser and then deployed to the bay once they reach the size of a dime. Sea Life Park Hawaii kicked off “The Year of the Honu,” commemorating 50 years of its Honu Conservation program. The conservation program has released over 17,000 turtle hatchlings into the wild over its 50 years in operation. Sea Life Park Events The Lahaina wildfire destroyed Kohala Brewery and its owners rebuilding plan involves brewing their recipes at Kona Brewing Company. The arrangement allows Kohala Brewery to continue shipping beer to customers and take advantage of Kona Brewing Company’s state-of-the-art facility that allows for more tighter quality control and consistency. The second phase of Kohala’s recovery includes rebuilding the taproom and retail business. Oahu craft beer afficionados have a new option available, Howzit Brewing. The Kakaako brewery recently opened a brewery and tasting room in Ward Village. The owner was born on Oahu, learned his trade in the Pacific Northwest craft beer scene, and returned to Oahu to start his own enterprise. December provided a reminder of the danger involved with hiking some of Oahu’s trails. Fortunately, the hiker did not die from the fall. Rescuers found the hiker after a three-day search 1,000 feet below the Pali Notches Trail. The hiker suffered a fractured cheekbone, broken wrist, and several puncture wounds. Five units of about thirteen experienced hikers participated in the search to find the hiker. ‘It’s a miracle’: Hiker who fell 1,000 feet on Oahu trail, was missing for days thanks his rescue.  Take a look at our Another Day in Paradise's Video Another Day in Paradise: Waterfalls
By Tim Kelley 08 Dec, 2023
Stott Real Estate, Inc.
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