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March 2023 Email Update

Tim Kelley • Sep 05, 2023

The February median price for an Oahu single-family homes slumped to $987,000 (12.8% less than February 2022) and condos was $480,000 (3.4% less than February 2022) as mortgage rates started rising again due to stubborn inflationary pressure.  The low February sales numbers reflects Oahu’s seasonal market with February being the slowest month of the year.  As a result, you should not read too much into the demand side of the equation.  Pending sales are still weak compared to last year with 31.3% fewer single-family homes under contract and 23.3% fewer condos under contract.  A more telling trend is that the median time it took for a single-family home to sell jumped to 47 days from 13 days and a condo took 35 days to sell compared to 12.  Supply continues to rise with 57.2% more single-family homes on the market and 19% more condos. 

You can review more detailed current and past real estate market data on our website using the link below.


Monthly StatisticsYou can lower your mortgage interest rate by building your credit score.  Lenders penalize borrowers with credit scores below 680 in the form of interest rates currently 1.5% higher than borrowers with credit scores above 780.  The good news is that the penalty is lower than the 2.75% fee last year.

The visitor market continues to recover with January hotel occupancy rising 8% to 73% overall.  The average daily hotel room rate jumped 32% to $391 and the revenue per available room rose 24% to $286 per room.  January visitor numbers are still slightly lower than 2019 figures with the total number of arrivals about 7% lower than prior to the pandemic.


The Honolulu City Council is targeting Vacation Rental owners with yet another tax increase with Bill 4 passing unanimously in its first reading.  The Bill is likely to pass on March 15th after further review and go into effect July 1st.  The city council is still debating the threshold where the tax increase would occur and the new tax rate.

The four Hawaii members of the U.S. Congress wrote a letter to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) asking the IRS to exempt reimbursements by the military to displaced families forced to shelter in hotels because of the Red Hill Fuel Storage Facility.  The IRS notified displaced family members of steep income tax increases resulting from reimbursement payments in 2021 and 2022.  The Hawaii delegation argues that “assistance provided to individuals provided by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) under the Stafford Act is exempted under article 139 of the Internal Revenue Code.”


The Waikiki Beach Special Improvement District Association started a 3-hour daily closure of the Royal Hawaiian Beach from 2:00 am to 5:00 am to address safety and sanitation issues from overnight camping at the beach effective March 1, 2023.  Some campers were witnessed digging through the trash at a beachfront hotel and piling up recyclables in the middle of the beach.  Sanitation crews have had to clean up trash and human feces from about 6:00 am to make the beach ready for visitors.  The public will be able to still walk the beach and go to the ocean while the beach is closed.  They just won’t be able to loiter or camp.

Hawaii’s 2005 effort to decriminalize traffic violations helped contribute to the death of a 16-year-old student in a cross walk.  The driver had 164 prior traffic citations and has been repeatedly cited for driving without a license, yet remained free.  The suspect pleaded not guilty to driving without a license nine days prior to this accident, the twelfth time since 2018.  The driver has paid fines when found guilty for traffic violations but has never been jailed.  State legislators should “look at the consequences of the    2005 legislation.”


Tensions between the University of Hawaii (UH) leadership and state legislature has intensified over the past few years as legislators agitate to weaken the state constitutional change to provide greater autonomy in handling its affairs.  Both the head of the Senate Ways and Means and Higher Education committees have gone on record stating that UH President David Lassner should resign.  Critics of the senators claim that they are micromanaging and bullying the UH staff, thus interfering with the leadership’s ability to serve their students.  Opinion columnist David Shapiro highlights the obvious by pointing out that Senator Dela Cruz stated Lassner has served 10 years as President and it should be time to step down while the senator has served for 13 years and opposes term limits for the legislature.

Mayor Rick Blangiardi revealed his $3.4 billion budget proposal that includes building affordable housing, funding park improvements, upgrading the Honolulu Police Department’s (HPD) headquarters, and installing more electric vehicle charging stations.  The budget also includes a $300 property tax refund to be distributed in the summer.


Some Oahu residents said farewell to the 47-year-old Aloha stadium by touring the stadium, walking on the field, enjoying food and festivities, and leaving with a part of the stadium like the plastic seats.  Governor Josh Green announce that he is pushing for a smaller replacement that will cost less than $500 million.  Based on recent government execution, the stadium will be complete in 2040 at a cost of $4 billion.


Thousands Bid Farewell To Aloha StadiumThe 27th Honolulu Festival returns after a 3-year pandemic related break.  The festival features cultures of the Pacific Rim and is a major draw for Japanese visitors.  This event is expected to attract about 1,000 Japanese visitors, about 1/3 of the number that attended prior to the pandemic.  The state hopes that the festival marks the beginning of the return of high spending Japanese tourists.


Honolulu FestivalThe Honolulu Authority for Rapid Transportation (HART) proposed a 15% annual increase to its operating budget to $108.9 million despite its continued delays in starting passenger service.  The increase is required to cover the principal payment of bonds constituting 95% of HART’s operating budget.  The beleaguered and cash-strapped agency is still negotiating with the Federal Transportation Agency (FTA) for the remainder of the federal funds dedicated to the project.  The FTA has not yet authorized the shortened route ending in Kakaako versus the originally planned Ala Moana Shopping Center.


Heavy rains on Oahu led to a boulder landing in an Aiea couple’s bedroom.  Fortunately, no one was injured when the boulder stopped 10 feet from the sleeping couple.  The couple bought the property that backs to a steep incline four years ago.  The Board of Water Supply, which owns land above the property, is investigating where the boulder came from.

North Shore cinematographer, Larry Haynes, died of a heart attack near his car after filming his stand-up paddleboard ride using his GoPro camera mounted on his helmet.  He was recently in the surf filming the Eddie Akau Big Wave Invitational at Waimea Bay last month.  He spent the final 30 years capturing images of the world’s greatest surfers.


Erosion is once again a concern for Hauula residents as a sink hole forces emergency repairs on a 30-foot stretch of Kamehameha Highway’s shoulder.  The road’s collapse temporarily trapped a sewage truck until neighbors helped free the front wheel from the hole.  A $500,000 project to shore up the road is expected last five to ten years will start next month.

The Sea Based X-Band Radar (SBX-1), referred to Oahu residents as the golf ball, returned from its longest deployment ever spanning 662 days.  The SBX-1 is in Pearl Harbor to remove the rust that accumulated during the deployment near Alaska and undergo a $68 million upgrade.  72 sailors operate the SBX-1 when underway and are primarily made up of government contractors from Raytheon and Northrup Grumman.  The SBX-1 is the only mobile part of an advanced missile intercept system including stationary radars in Alaska, California and Japan.


Take A Tour Of The 'golf ball' Radar Ship At Ford Island, Pearl Harbor.The University of Hawaii (UH) men’s basketball team finished second in the Big West and the women finished third.  Both teams are gearing up for the conference tournament where the champion gains an automatic bid to the NCAA’s March Madness.

The pandemic demand for dogs of all stripes has reversed and both the Oahu and Maui Humane Societies are struggling with the number of sheltered dogs.  The shelter houses stray animals and animals surrendered by their owners.  The most common reasons for surrendering an animal are that the family does not think they can afford to move them, available pet housing is unaffordable, or housing restrictions limit the ability to care for larger dogs.  The Humane Societies are asking for volunteers to foster a dog to ease the overcrowded facilities.


A recent two-month drone deployment identified a second group of humpback whales breeding in the northwest end of the Papahanaumokuakea Monument.  The Hawaiian distinct population feeds off Alaska and breeds among the main island chains of the Big Island, Maui, Oahu, and Kauai.  A second group, suspected to be the West Pacific segment feeds in the Bearing Sea and the Aleutians but scientists have been unable to find out where they breed.  They now suspect that this segment breeds in the northwest end of the monument but further investigation is needed

New research reveals that humpback whales annually visit the Hawaiian islands and PapahanaumokuakKiluauea is quieting down during its latest two-month eruption with the summit deflating and the number of earthquakes falling.  The volcano has followed a similar path recently and scientists unsure if and when the volcanic activity will surge again.  Kilauea was silent for about one year when 30-foot volcanic geysers erupted in Halemaumau crater on January 5th.


The state cited a Maui man for harassing a young humpback whale and a pod of spinner dolphins at Kealakekua Bay State Historical Park.  The man snorkeled after the adolescent humpback whale almost touching its fin and could be heard laughing in the background of a video recording.  The man also led a group of snorkelers who chased after the pod of spinner dolphins.  Federal law prohibits swimming with and approaching a humpback whale or spinner dolphin within 50 yards.

Strong winds buffeted Oahu on March 7th and 8th with wind gust between 40 and 60 mph knocking down trees and disrupting power across the island.  A combination of saturated ground from a month of rain combined with the high winds toppled large trees blocking roads and sidewalks.  Falling trees and mudslides are more likely to happen in the next few days according to weather forecasters.



Kaimana, the Hawaiian monk seal who gave birth on Waikiki Beach six years ago, gave birth to the Hawaii’s first pup in 2023.  The pup was named U’i Mea Ola, U’i for short, which is Hawaiian for “beautiful survivor.”


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By Tim Kelley 09 Jan, 2024
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By Tim Kelley 09 Jan, 2024
The December median price for single-family homes was $996,500 (5.1% lower than December 2022) and for condos was $510,000 (1.5% higher than December 2022). Demand continues to fall with 9.9% fewer single-family homes and 24.4% fewer condos sold this December compared to the same month last year. Single-family home sales have fallen twenty-three consecutive months and condo sales have dropped for nineteen straight months. The number of available properties, both single-family homes and condos, appears to be stabilizing yet scarce. There are still only 2.8 months of single-family home and 3.2 months of condo inventory. You can review more detailed current and past real estate market data on our website using the link below. Monthly Statistics October 2023 Market Update A U.S. Court District judge issued a summary judgement granting the Hawaii Legal Short-Term Rental Alliance (HILSTRA) a permanent injunction against a provision of Ordinance 22-7 prohibiting home rental periods between thirty and 89 days for property owners who were following the 30-day minimum rental period before the laws effective date of October 23 rd , 2022. HILSTRA successfully argued that the new law caused immediate and devastating economic harm to landlords and operators legally renting their properties. The permanent injunction will make the thirty to 89-day ban on newer rental properties difficult to enforce. The city has not decided if it will appeal the decision. An article by Civil Beat summarized decades of action or lack of action resulting in the years-long slog many homeowners and contractors experience at the Department of Planning and Permitting (DPP) waiting on permit approval. Back in the 1970’s, a contractor could obtain a building permit the same day by walking plans to each DPP department for signatures and being able to fix issues on the spot when an experienced examiner pointed them out. A loss of institutional knowledge when experienced examiners retired, increased regulation, a failure to update technology, and the removal of face-to-face interaction has resulted in November 2022 permit times of 330 days on average for a residential permit and 420 days on average for a commercial permit. DPP reported an average of a six-month delay in October, easy solar power permits have skewed the numbers since building permits still languish. DPP’s largest problem is hiring since people with an architecture or engineering background can make $20,000 to $50,000 more in the private sector and “don’t get yelled at as much.” Additionally, the Honolulu City Council issued a rash of new regulations from 2016 through 2020 requiring DPP to establish a new department and additional review step. DPP’s director has received additional funding to hire people to reduce the backlog, however, contractors are still waiting “longer than ever” for a permit in the meantime. National Home sales fell to a 13-year low in October and November sales rose slightly above October’s low due to lower mortgage rates. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes have seized up the resale housing market and negatively impacted related businesses like furniture and home improvement stores. The furniture industry and home improvement sector have experienced four straight quarters of falling sales resulting in fewer jobs. Employment related to real estate has stagnated and some real estate agents are reconsidering their career path, particularly after the court verdict that may impact the way clients pay Buyer’s Agents. Economists think mortgage rates will have to drop at least an additional percentage before more sellers become willing to trade their currently low mortgage rates for a new home with a higher rate. Some good news came in the form of growing new home construction and a rise in building permits. The Hawaii Tourism Authority (HTA) reported 731,233 visitors arrived in Hawaii this past November, essentially the same number arriving the November prior. The number is 9.6% lower than the arrivals in November 2019, just prior to the pandemic. International visitors, including Japan, continue to significantly lag the pre-pandemic numbers. In an ironic development, the six-month old panel established by Governor Josh Green to accelerate affordable housing development, approved a school impact fee waiver for a developer to convert a commercial property into a 52-unit apartment building. The waiver does not have any impact on needed building permits. Green’s emergency proclamation was issued with the goal of building 50,000 housing units statewide, but only 1,300 more affordable rental units are in the pipeline. The Department of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR) fined a Sunset Beach homeowner for illegally pouring concrete on the beach to shore up his eroding property. Desperate homeowners have littered the surrounding coastline with boulders, sandbags, and black tarps as the state struggles to enforce laws preventing shoreline hardening that leads to accelerated beach loss. Pictures Soaring hurricane insurance rates are causing some condominium complexes to secure coverage that does not completely cover replacement costs. The rising costs are occurring despite Hawaii not experiencing a direct hit in 31 years because of the global nature of the reinsurance market. An association’s decision to reduce insurance coverage can make it difficult for home buyers to obtain mortgages and pay higher rates. A local insurance expert estimates almost four hundred condo complexes do not have full coverage including luxury buildings in Kakaako. Joint Task Force Red Hill (JTFRH) announced it finished the gravity draining portion of the defueling operation of the Navy’s underground fuel tank facility on December 15 th , 2023, removing almost 150 million gallons of fuel from the site. The last tanker of fuel departed on December 20 th for the Philippines, one of several U.S. sites in the Pacific chosen to receive the drained fuel. Workers must pump about 60,000 gallons of remaining fuel and remove about 30,000 gallons of “sludge.” JTFRH scheduled the removal of the remaining fuel by the end of January, six months earlier than planned. JTF-Red Hill Commander Provides Gravity Defueling Update A jury will decide the merits of a dispute between developer Howard Hughes Corp, developer of Ward Village in Kakaako and the Honolulu Authority for Rapid Transportation (HART) over the cost of the land HART seeks to build the rail project’s Kakaako station. The estimated price tag is $200 million, and HART has already spent $23.3 million in legal fees as of 2021. Howard Hughes Corp. disagrees with HART about receiving “special benefits” and HART using the “special benefits” to calculate the amount paid for the land. HART’s “expert appraiser” valued the land HART wants to take from Howard Hughes Corp. at $14 million. There is no current plan to build the Kakaako station at the heart of the dispute after Mayor Blangiardi postponed the construction of the final 1.25 miles of the line because of cost overruns. The U.S. Army agreed to lease the state Department of Transportation at Kawaihapai Airfield, previously known as Dillingham Airfield on the North Shore, paving the way for continued commercial activity by local businesses. State has less than 30 days to reach deal with military on Dillingham Airfield Heavy rains on December 20 th caused a mudslide on the Pali Highway, closing the Honolulu-bound lanes through the busy holiday weekend. Heavy rainfall has often resulted in mudslides closing the Pali. Multiple landslides in February of 2019 caused the state to declare the Pali Highway a natural disaster area. State construction crews spent months reinforcing the hillside above the Pali Highway and extending the tunnel to protect cars from falling debris. Pali Hwy closed through weekend as crews clear landslide Contractors removed and packed up the Caltech Submillimeter Observatory telescope on Mauna Kea for shipment for Chile in December, the first of five telescopes scientists must decommission on the Mauna Kea summit to make room for the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT). TMT construction remains in limbo as the National Science Foundation completes more environmental studies and the new Mauna Kea Summit Oversight Authority takes over management of the summit. Caltech Submillimeter Observatory Telescope Removal The University of Hawaii’s (UH) new Reserve Officer Training Corps (ROTC) program commissioned its first Ensign on the deck of the Battleship, USS Missouri in December. The newly commissioned officer will serve on the USS Shiloh, based in Pearl Harbor, after completing the three-month Basic Division Officer Course. Tim graduated from Tulane University back in 1989 on a ROTC scholarship and served on the USS Cavalla, a fast-attack submarine based out of Pearl Harbor. A recently released study by an Arizona State University student and former Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology researcher reports fishing of herbivore species to less than 80% of the reef’s unfished density results in lower coral reef health due to the buildup of algae, the fish’s food. The state Department of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR) is considering additional reef fishing restrictions to prevent the overfishing of Hawaii’s coral reef systems. DLNR deployed its one millionth hatchery grown sea urchin in Kaneohe Bay to control two species of invasive seaweed that can suffocate coral reef patches in the bay. Once a month, a team collects twenty-five of the mini “seaweed mowers” and induces them to spawn resulting in larvae 24 hours later. Researchers siphon the swimming larvae off the top and place them in larvae rearing tanks to protect the delicate animals during development. After 28 days, the team grows a biofilm on clear corrugated roofing material that the larvae attach to and start to look like little urchins called spat. Three weeks later, researchers move the spat to grow-out tanks when they are the size of a pencil eraser and then deployed to the bay once they reach the size of a dime. Sea Life Park Hawaii kicked off “The Year of the Honu,” commemorating 50 years of its Honu Conservation program. The conservation program has released over 17,000 turtle hatchlings into the wild over its 50 years in operation. Sea Life Park Events The Lahaina wildfire destroyed Kohala Brewery and its owners rebuilding plan involves brewing their recipes at Kona Brewing Company. The arrangement allows Kohala Brewery to continue shipping beer to customers and take advantage of Kona Brewing Company’s state-of-the-art facility that allows for more tighter quality control and consistency. The second phase of Kohala’s recovery includes rebuilding the taproom and retail business. Oahu craft beer afficionados have a new option available, Howzit Brewing. The Kakaako brewery recently opened a brewery and tasting room in Ward Village. The owner was born on Oahu, learned his trade in the Pacific Northwest craft beer scene, and returned to Oahu to start his own enterprise. December provided a reminder of the danger involved with hiking some of Oahu’s trails. Fortunately, the hiker did not die from the fall. Rescuers found the hiker after a three-day search 1,000 feet below the Pali Notches Trail. The hiker suffered a fractured cheekbone, broken wrist, and several puncture wounds. Five units of about thirteen experienced hikers participated in the search to find the hiker. ‘It’s a miracle’: Hiker who fell 1,000 feet on Oahu trail, was missing for days thanks his rescue.  Take a look at our Another Day in Paradise's Video Another Day in Paradise: Waterfalls
By Tim Kelley 08 Dec, 2023
Stott Real Estate, Inc.
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