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Email Update January 2022

Tim Kelley • Jan 28, 2022

The December median sales price for single-family homes was $1,050,000 (20.7% higher than December 2020) and for condos was $485,000 (6.6% higher than December 2020).  The number of single-family homes that sold dropped 10% and the number of pending sales dropped 8.9% as a lack of supply constrains the market.  The inventory of single-family homes dropped from one month of inventory in November to 0.8 months of inventory in December.  Demand for condos continues to increase with a 13.1% increase in the number of sales and a 16.7% increase in the number of pending sales.  Median sales prices failed to set new records for the fourth month in a row despite extremely low inventory as housing affordability becomes an issue with buyers.


The University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization (UHERO) forecasts Hawaii muddling through another year as the state continues to struggle with the COVID-19 pandemic.  UHERO sees potential increased international tourism and federal handouts as the only engines for growth in 2022, both of which are beyond the state’s control.  Many families will struggle as high home prices in the form of rents or sales prices will hit budgets hard while federal pandemic related subsidies end.  UHERO predicts state gross domestic product figures will not return to 2019 levels until 2023 and visitor spending will not return to 2019 levels until 2025.

The Navy is scrambling to clean up their tap water system contaminated from spilled jet fuel from the underground Red Hill fuel storage facility and initially spread the pollution to other parts of the environment.  The Navy originally asked residents to run their water and flush toilets to remove contaminants while some residents complained of becoming overwhelmed from fumes.  The state Department of Health issued a cease-and-desist order when they learned that the Navy was flushing water from hydrants and failing to follow state guidance.  Apparently, the Navy has not seen the signs at runoff drains saying that the water flows to the ocean.  The Navy has belatedly hired a civil engineer from Purdue University and has flown in activated charcoal filtration systems to remove the jet fuel.  The effort includes a Navy dive team that is actively skimming contaminants from the surface of the Red Hill water shaft.  More than 3,000 people are currently living in Waikiki hotels while the effort to clean up the fuel spill continues, and the contamination has affected more than a dozen schools.  Engineers anticipate the process of flushing the military housing plumbing system will take 30 to 45 days. To learn more about any updates please click the link below:


Red Hill Bulk Fuel Storage Facility in Hawaii


A security fellow at the Truman National Security Project has described the Navy’s Red Hill water crisis as a problem that is years in the making.  He has accused military brass and national government figures of being lazy and negligent for solely focusing on pricey high-tech weapons systems and ignoring the aging infrastructure needed to support and maintain the military’s weapons systems and personnel.  It will fall on Congress to fund the project to replace the underground facility if the state of Hawaii gets its wishes.  The latest version of Congress’ annual defense bill has a provision directing the military to find alternatives to the 80-year-old Red Hill Bulk Fuel Storage Facility.  The state Department of Health concluded its contested hearing on December 28th by deciding the Navy must comply with an emergency order to empty the underground fuel tanks until it can upgrade the tanks to prevent future spills or build a new storage facility that does not threaten Oahu’s water supply.

In signs of the times, the shoreside dock at the USS Arizona Memorial visitor system has failed again and the National Park Service hopes its latest band-aid repair will take less than the 17 days that the September fix took.  The park service removed the ramp on December 15th to examine the damage and develop a fix.  They recently awarded a $5.8 million contract to replace the aging floating dock. If you want more updates please click the link below:


Pearl Harbor - National Memorial Park


In a refreshing twist, Mayor Rick Blangiardi, has limited large events to 50% capacity but otherwise resisted calls from the state Department of Health for new social distancing restrictions and is asking Oahu residents to take responsibility and use their own judgement to navigate the Omicron variant surge.  The record number of daily cases has exposed the failure and futility of Hawaii’s Safe Travels Program to prevent the spread of COVID-19 while creating bottlenecks and hassles for people flying to the islands.  Many airlines have suspended their bracelet programs designed to skip the processing lines at Hawaii’s airports due to costs and employee shortages.  Tim and Tracey recently had to wait 90 minutes for their daughter to receive clearance and meet them at baggage claim.  The long lines forced Hawaii airport workers to pull luggage off the carousel to make room for the next flight’s bags while visitors were waiting in the Safe Travels que.  Governor David Ige does not plan on any changes to the program as he continues to evaluate the program and “follow the science.”


Hawaii has a unique method of establishing district maps for the state and congressional seats.  The Hawaii State Reappointment Commission has nine members.  The Senate President, House Speaker, Senate Minority Leader, and House Minority Leader select two each and the commissioners select by supermajority the ninth member who serves as the chair.  The Hawaii State Constitution requires the county advisory councils help guide the Reappointment Commission and provide feedback based on public testimony.  The reasoning behind the process is that a commission of private citizens would be less likely to gerrymander the map and favor one party over the other.  The current Reappointment Commission has come under fire for voting to create a technical permitted interaction group to draw up and alter the maps for the entire state.  The permitted interaction groups are neither required to hold public meetings, publish minutes, nor publish meeting notices.  The lack of transparency has resulted in nine neighborhood boards passing nonbinding resolutions to reject the current map currently considered by the Reappointment Commission.  The current map combines parts of Kailua, Waimanalo, and Hawaii Kai into one district and breaks up Mililani into four separate house districts.  Protesters, including prior governor Neil Abercrombie, called for a rejection of the current map and for greater transparency with the process. Here's an official map that you can take a look at:


LAND USE DISTRICT BOUNDARIES MAPS – ISLAND OF O`AHU


The latest Mauna Kea master plan calls for a maximum of nine observatories at the summit by the end of 2033.  The plan calls for retiring four observatories and five current observatories if the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT) gets built.  The plan also limits the number parking and gathering places that that could replace decommissioned sites.  A separate effort by the state House of Representatives calls for a new management structure consisting of fifteen volunteers which excludes the University of Hawaii (UH).  Some people, including a group of Native Hawaiians, have accused UH of mismanaging the activity on the summit and polarizing the community.  Public remarks opposed to UH’s continued management of leased land claim Mauna Kea is sacred, observatories have desecrated the summit, and UH has ignored the concerns of the public including Native Hawaiians.  Public remarks in favor of UH’s involvement stress the need to continue activities in advancing astronomy, education, and scientific research world-wide. Want to know more about TMT? Please click the link below:


Thirty Meter Telescope


Mayor Rick Blangiardi signed the new 3% hotel tax into law that piles on the Hawaii’s Transient Accommodation Tax and General Excise Tax.  The tax that visitors will pay a total of 17.962% on top of their hotel bill.  The average daily room rate for a couple on Oahu is $379 (according to www.budgetyourtrip.com), therefore the tax for each day of a honeymoon or anniversary celebration runs $68.08.  That is the equivalent of a reasonably priced lunch or fun events if totaled over a week stay.  Hawaii economists have complained over the years that tourists are spending less and less each day on a Hawaii vacation.  It would be interesting to see a Hawaii economist study the impact of the ever-increasing taxes on visitors’ vacation spending.
 
Hawaii Pacific Health broke ground on their 15-year project to transform Straub Medical Center into a 750,000 square foot campus that will increase its capacity and add flexibility to its operations for health crisis like the COVID-19 pandemic case surge this past summer.  Some design features include a garage that the medical center can convert to additional clinical space if needed in times of emergency.  The project will not negatively impact current hospital operations since it will occur in phases.
 
Hawaii researchers are working to give evolution a nudge in helping coral systems survive rising temperatures.  The scientists are evaluating three methods to help the world’s coral systems to survive and thrive. 
·      Selectively breed coral with desirable traits.
·      Acclimate the coral to tolerate increasing temperature in a lab setting.
·      Modify the algae that give coral essential nutrients.
The group is careful to emphasize they are not involved in genetically modifying the coral so that the anti-GMO crowd does not work itself up into a frenzy.  The hope is that they can introduce the lab grown coral by pumping young coral into the ocean or using small robots to physically plant coral and future generations will spread their hardier traits naturally.
 
The ocean is a dangerous place, particularly when swimming alone.  The latest reminder occurred when an internationally acclaimed dancer drowned swimming alone in swimmer-friendly Kailua Bay.  The woman was in fantastic shape but not a particularly strong swimmer, according to her husband, and found herself in trouble even though she did not venture too far from shore. Here are some pictures of corals in Hawaii:


Corals in Hawaii Pictures


The UH Rainbow Warriors football team had to withdraw from the Hawaii Bowl because at least thirty of the team’s players, coaches, and staff have tested positive for the coronavirus and must quarantine.  The withdrawal comes among a rash of cancelled or rescheduled sports due to the rapidly spreading Omicron Variant first detected in November.


Papakilo Database, a collection of Native Hawaiian documents, has grown from thirteen collections totaling about 500,000 records from seven partners to seventy collections totaling about 1,200,000 records from eighteen partners since its inception 10 years ago.  Many Native Hawaiian historians consider the database as the go-to source by providing writings about Native Hawaiians by Native Hawaiians in the native tongue.  Papakilo means a foundation for seeking, searching, and observing.  Documents include Hawaiian-language newspapers, genealogical and place names listings, and oral history collections from hula masters.  Researchers used to make appointments to visit multiple locations including Bishop Museum and Hawaii State archives to locate materials over the span of months.  Historians can now find the same in about five minutes due to efforts over the past decade.  The link below leads to educational videos created by the Office of Hawaiian Affairs.


Office of Hawaiian Affairs


Scientists are hoping to see higher humpback whale breeding in Hawaii this year as ocean temperatures off Alaska drop from temperatures 5 degrees Fahrenheit above average from 2013 through 2016.  The warmer water temperatures resulted in a sharp reduction in krill and scientists suspect that female the lack of food interrupts the whale’s reproductive cycle if they do not build up sufficient fat reserves to make the trip to Hawaii.  Female whales do not eat throughout the Hawaii migration.  Researchers noted a 50% drop in humpback whales off Maui in the winter of 2015-2016, an 80% reduction in mother-calf pairs between 2013 and 2018, and 39% fewer adults between 2013 and 2018.  While the moratorium on commercial whale hunting has helped humpback whale populations recover, rising ocean temperatures could threaten current numbers if food becomes increasingly scarce. Check out this video from University of Hawaii and their research in Hawaiian waters:


UAV Humpback Whale Footage


Tim and Tracey have come to realize that grocery shopping while hungry results in an expensive bill and interesting impulse buys.  Foodland in the Ala Moana Center may have the answer.  They recently opened ELEVEN on the Piikoi Street side of the store featuring handcrafted cocktails, small plates, and desserts.  Of course, shopping in the store after a couple of cocktails may produce a similar result as shopping on an empty stomach.

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By Tim Kelley 09 Jan, 2024
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By Tim Kelley 09 Jan, 2024
The December median price for single-family homes was $996,500 (5.1% lower than December 2022) and for condos was $510,000 (1.5% higher than December 2022). Demand continues to fall with 9.9% fewer single-family homes and 24.4% fewer condos sold this December compared to the same month last year. Single-family home sales have fallen twenty-three consecutive months and condo sales have dropped for nineteen straight months. The number of available properties, both single-family homes and condos, appears to be stabilizing yet scarce. There are still only 2.8 months of single-family home and 3.2 months of condo inventory. You can review more detailed current and past real estate market data on our website using the link below. Monthly Statistics October 2023 Market Update A U.S. Court District judge issued a summary judgement granting the Hawaii Legal Short-Term Rental Alliance (HILSTRA) a permanent injunction against a provision of Ordinance 22-7 prohibiting home rental periods between thirty and 89 days for property owners who were following the 30-day minimum rental period before the laws effective date of October 23 rd , 2022. HILSTRA successfully argued that the new law caused immediate and devastating economic harm to landlords and operators legally renting their properties. The permanent injunction will make the thirty to 89-day ban on newer rental properties difficult to enforce. The city has not decided if it will appeal the decision. An article by Civil Beat summarized decades of action or lack of action resulting in the years-long slog many homeowners and contractors experience at the Department of Planning and Permitting (DPP) waiting on permit approval. Back in the 1970’s, a contractor could obtain a building permit the same day by walking plans to each DPP department for signatures and being able to fix issues on the spot when an experienced examiner pointed them out. A loss of institutional knowledge when experienced examiners retired, increased regulation, a failure to update technology, and the removal of face-to-face interaction has resulted in November 2022 permit times of 330 days on average for a residential permit and 420 days on average for a commercial permit. DPP reported an average of a six-month delay in October, easy solar power permits have skewed the numbers since building permits still languish. DPP’s largest problem is hiring since people with an architecture or engineering background can make $20,000 to $50,000 more in the private sector and “don’t get yelled at as much.” Additionally, the Honolulu City Council issued a rash of new regulations from 2016 through 2020 requiring DPP to establish a new department and additional review step. DPP’s director has received additional funding to hire people to reduce the backlog, however, contractors are still waiting “longer than ever” for a permit in the meantime. National Home sales fell to a 13-year low in October and November sales rose slightly above October’s low due to lower mortgage rates. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes have seized up the resale housing market and negatively impacted related businesses like furniture and home improvement stores. The furniture industry and home improvement sector have experienced four straight quarters of falling sales resulting in fewer jobs. Employment related to real estate has stagnated and some real estate agents are reconsidering their career path, particularly after the court verdict that may impact the way clients pay Buyer’s Agents. Economists think mortgage rates will have to drop at least an additional percentage before more sellers become willing to trade their currently low mortgage rates for a new home with a higher rate. Some good news came in the form of growing new home construction and a rise in building permits. The Hawaii Tourism Authority (HTA) reported 731,233 visitors arrived in Hawaii this past November, essentially the same number arriving the November prior. The number is 9.6% lower than the arrivals in November 2019, just prior to the pandemic. International visitors, including Japan, continue to significantly lag the pre-pandemic numbers. In an ironic development, the six-month old panel established by Governor Josh Green to accelerate affordable housing development, approved a school impact fee waiver for a developer to convert a commercial property into a 52-unit apartment building. The waiver does not have any impact on needed building permits. Green’s emergency proclamation was issued with the goal of building 50,000 housing units statewide, but only 1,300 more affordable rental units are in the pipeline. The Department of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR) fined a Sunset Beach homeowner for illegally pouring concrete on the beach to shore up his eroding property. Desperate homeowners have littered the surrounding coastline with boulders, sandbags, and black tarps as the state struggles to enforce laws preventing shoreline hardening that leads to accelerated beach loss. Pictures Soaring hurricane insurance rates are causing some condominium complexes to secure coverage that does not completely cover replacement costs. The rising costs are occurring despite Hawaii not experiencing a direct hit in 31 years because of the global nature of the reinsurance market. An association’s decision to reduce insurance coverage can make it difficult for home buyers to obtain mortgages and pay higher rates. A local insurance expert estimates almost four hundred condo complexes do not have full coverage including luxury buildings in Kakaako. Joint Task Force Red Hill (JTFRH) announced it finished the gravity draining portion of the defueling operation of the Navy’s underground fuel tank facility on December 15 th , 2023, removing almost 150 million gallons of fuel from the site. The last tanker of fuel departed on December 20 th for the Philippines, one of several U.S. sites in the Pacific chosen to receive the drained fuel. Workers must pump about 60,000 gallons of remaining fuel and remove about 30,000 gallons of “sludge.” JTFRH scheduled the removal of the remaining fuel by the end of January, six months earlier than planned. JTF-Red Hill Commander Provides Gravity Defueling Update A jury will decide the merits of a dispute between developer Howard Hughes Corp, developer of Ward Village in Kakaako and the Honolulu Authority for Rapid Transportation (HART) over the cost of the land HART seeks to build the rail project’s Kakaako station. The estimated price tag is $200 million, and HART has already spent $23.3 million in legal fees as of 2021. Howard Hughes Corp. disagrees with HART about receiving “special benefits” and HART using the “special benefits” to calculate the amount paid for the land. HART’s “expert appraiser” valued the land HART wants to take from Howard Hughes Corp. at $14 million. There is no current plan to build the Kakaako station at the heart of the dispute after Mayor Blangiardi postponed the construction of the final 1.25 miles of the line because of cost overruns. The U.S. Army agreed to lease the state Department of Transportation at Kawaihapai Airfield, previously known as Dillingham Airfield on the North Shore, paving the way for continued commercial activity by local businesses. State has less than 30 days to reach deal with military on Dillingham Airfield Heavy rains on December 20 th caused a mudslide on the Pali Highway, closing the Honolulu-bound lanes through the busy holiday weekend. Heavy rainfall has often resulted in mudslides closing the Pali. Multiple landslides in February of 2019 caused the state to declare the Pali Highway a natural disaster area. State construction crews spent months reinforcing the hillside above the Pali Highway and extending the tunnel to protect cars from falling debris. Pali Hwy closed through weekend as crews clear landslide Contractors removed and packed up the Caltech Submillimeter Observatory telescope on Mauna Kea for shipment for Chile in December, the first of five telescopes scientists must decommission on the Mauna Kea summit to make room for the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT). TMT construction remains in limbo as the National Science Foundation completes more environmental studies and the new Mauna Kea Summit Oversight Authority takes over management of the summit. Caltech Submillimeter Observatory Telescope Removal The University of Hawaii’s (UH) new Reserve Officer Training Corps (ROTC) program commissioned its first Ensign on the deck of the Battleship, USS Missouri in December. The newly commissioned officer will serve on the USS Shiloh, based in Pearl Harbor, after completing the three-month Basic Division Officer Course. Tim graduated from Tulane University back in 1989 on a ROTC scholarship and served on the USS Cavalla, a fast-attack submarine based out of Pearl Harbor. A recently released study by an Arizona State University student and former Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology researcher reports fishing of herbivore species to less than 80% of the reef’s unfished density results in lower coral reef health due to the buildup of algae, the fish’s food. The state Department of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR) is considering additional reef fishing restrictions to prevent the overfishing of Hawaii’s coral reef systems. DLNR deployed its one millionth hatchery grown sea urchin in Kaneohe Bay to control two species of invasive seaweed that can suffocate coral reef patches in the bay. Once a month, a team collects twenty-five of the mini “seaweed mowers” and induces them to spawn resulting in larvae 24 hours later. Researchers siphon the swimming larvae off the top and place them in larvae rearing tanks to protect the delicate animals during development. After 28 days, the team grows a biofilm on clear corrugated roofing material that the larvae attach to and start to look like little urchins called spat. Three weeks later, researchers move the spat to grow-out tanks when they are the size of a pencil eraser and then deployed to the bay once they reach the size of a dime. Sea Life Park Hawaii kicked off “The Year of the Honu,” commemorating 50 years of its Honu Conservation program. The conservation program has released over 17,000 turtle hatchlings into the wild over its 50 years in operation. Sea Life Park Events The Lahaina wildfire destroyed Kohala Brewery and its owners rebuilding plan involves brewing their recipes at Kona Brewing Company. The arrangement allows Kohala Brewery to continue shipping beer to customers and take advantage of Kona Brewing Company’s state-of-the-art facility that allows for more tighter quality control and consistency. The second phase of Kohala’s recovery includes rebuilding the taproom and retail business. Oahu craft beer afficionados have a new option available, Howzit Brewing. The Kakaako brewery recently opened a brewery and tasting room in Ward Village. The owner was born on Oahu, learned his trade in the Pacific Northwest craft beer scene, and returned to Oahu to start his own enterprise. December provided a reminder of the danger involved with hiking some of Oahu’s trails. Fortunately, the hiker did not die from the fall. Rescuers found the hiker after a three-day search 1,000 feet below the Pali Notches Trail. The hiker suffered a fractured cheekbone, broken wrist, and several puncture wounds. Five units of about thirteen experienced hikers participated in the search to find the hiker. ‘It’s a miracle’: Hiker who fell 1,000 feet on Oahu trail, was missing for days thanks his rescue.  Take a look at our Another Day in Paradise's Video Another Day in Paradise: Waterfalls
By Tim Kelley 08 Dec, 2023
Stott Real Estate, Inc.
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