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February 2022 Email Update

Tim Kelley • Feb 10, 2022

The January median sales price for single-family homes was $1,050,000 (18.9% higher than January 2021) and for condominiums was a record $510,000 (12.8% higher than January 2021).  Affordability appears to limit median price levels as single-family home prices have settled $1,050,000 for five of the past six months and condominium prices eked out a small $10,000 increase of the previous record set in August 2021.  Demand continues to exceed the new supply of resale homes and available inventory has dropped to 0.8 months of single-family homes and 1.6 months of condominiums.  Tim and Tracey recently listened to a seminar where the speaker addressed the opposing forces of interest rates versus the scarcity of supply.  Those forces seem to have reached a stalemate for the short term.  Only time will tell if recently rising interest rates suppress demand by reducing buyers’ ability to afford real estate at record prices.

The Omicron variant of the COVID-19 virus has temporarily dampened visitor counts delaying Hawaii’s tourism industry recovery.  Hawaii started the year with visitor numbers about 12% below 2019 numbers yet the percentage grew to about 30% below 2019 figures at the end of January as infection rates surged throughout the United States and the world.

Visits to the USS Arizona Memorial resumed on January 6th, 22 days after park officials suspended boat operations due to a damaged shoreside dock.  Contractors delivered the repaired dock and installed the day before and a contractor is fabricating a new dock and it will install the dock later this year.  Officials are monitoring the repaired dock to ensure continued safe operation. If you want more updates please click the link below:

Pearl Harbor - National Memorial Park

Hawaii lost 10,358 residents from July 2020 to July 2021, 0.7% of Hawaii’s population.  Hawaii only trailed Washington D.C., New York, and Illinois for districts and states losing the largest percentage of their population.  Hawaii economist, Carl Bonham, noted over the past few years, Hawaii lost 30,000 residents which roughly equals the reduction in private workforce from 675,700 in February 2020 to 650,000 workers in November.  The Hawaii Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism DBEDT analyzed the people leaving and concluded kamaaina “leaving for the mainland are both younger and more educated.”  It seems that those staying are old dummies like Tim.
 
The pandemic has not been kind to real estate investors on Oahu as government restrictions pummeled property owners by taking away the livelihood of many residents and then preventing landlords from evicting tenants who were not paying rent.  Governor David Ige did not lift the eviction moratorium until after the legislature made it much more difficult to evict tenants by:
 

  • · Defining when a tenant could be evicted based on how many months past due rent the tenant owed.
  • · Stretching the demand period from five days to fifteen days.
  • · Requiring mediation prior to an eviction hearing if the tenant requested it.

The governor’s stated goal was to prevent eviction efforts from overwhelming the courts and the new measures apparently have failed.  One of Stott Property Management, LLC’s (Stott PM) clients must wait until May 19th before the court will consider evicting a tenant who currently owes $12,000 in rent and who has refused to move even after receiving legal written notice to vacate over three months ago.  The judge ordered a second round of mediation even though a first one failed to produce an agreement.  A second tenant who abused the eviction moratorium owes over $48,000 in past due rent and damages and the court has still not issued a financial judgement against the tenant despite months of effort.  The lawyer Stott PM partners with summed up the current environment by saying, “the system is broken.”

The Honolulu City Council is again considering a bill that would alter the rules for short-term rentals by increasing the minimum stay from 30 days to three months unless the city issues a special permit.  An amendment reduced the bill’s originally six-month minimum stay because temporary workers like traveling nurses stay for less than six months and might have trouble finding a place to live as a result.  The proposed bill will only allow short-term rental operations in resort zoned areas like Ko Olina, Turtle Bay, Makaha, and parts of Waikiki.  One individual Tim met late last year asked why Oahu residents just lay down and accept ever increasing restrictions and Tim responded stating the city council decides what they think is best regardless of the feedback given.  True to form, most of the public testimony was against the measure, yet the city council voted to move the bill forward.  Not surprising, the hotel industry supported the measure.  A representative from Expedia asked why the city council considers the bill when the Department of Planning and Permitting never fully implemented the 2019 law regulating short-term rentals. Here's an official update:


Short-Term Rental News and Updates


The special attorney for the U.S. attorney general continues an investigation into allegations of law enforcement, elected officials, and their business supporters of conspiring to abuse their positions and punish their opponents.  A federal grand jury probed campaign donations in late January and questioned a past city council member and U.S. congress member under oath about donations received by a Honolulu engineering executive and his family.  The special attorney successfully prosecuted former Honolulu Police Department (HPD) police chief Louis Kealoha and his then wife, former Deputy Prosecuting Attorney Katherine Kealoha.  Federal prosecutors delivered target letters notifying former city Prosecutor Keith Kaneshiro and two of his deputies that they were under investigation.

The special attorney recently indicted three top officials in ex-Mayor Kirk Caldwell’s organization allegedly conspiring to divert $250,000 in government funds to pay then-indicted Honolulu Police Chief Louis Kealoha in a retirement settlement.  Federal prosecutors allege that the three convinced the Honolulu Police Department (HPD) to pay for the settlement out of funds to pay police salaries and then lie about the source of the deficit to use funds from a program using federal funding to fill the shortfall without involving the Honolulu City Council.  One of the accused officials allegedly explained to HPD that they must conceal the source of the budget shortfall to avoid bringing the issue in front of the “nine bananas” (city council members).  The decision to pay a settlement to the indicted police chief raised eyebrows at the time and the court eventually sentenced Kealoha to seven years in prison for conspiracy, fraud, and obstruction of justice.

The U.S. Navy has announced that it will begin draining the underground tanks at the Red Hill fuel storage facility in compliance with the state of Hawaii’s emergency order.  The Navy has stated that it has already spent $250 million on cleanup efforts and housing military families that no longer had access to potable water in their homes.  While the Navy is temporarily housing military families in Waikiki during the cleanup, residents in Ewa Beach’s Kapilina neighborhood are still stuck living in rental houses with fuel contaminated water.  Rental managers initially told the residents the neighborhood consisting of former military housing did not receive water from the Navy’s contaminated Red Hill water shaft, but that information turned out to be untrue.  Several residents experienced serious illnesses from drinking and bathing in the contaminated water.  Residents have sued the San Francisco based company that owns Kapilina Beach Homes because they have been slow to release residents from their leases and have continued to charge rent in violation of the state of Hawaii’s landlord tenant code. Here's a small clip from Hawai'i Public Radio about this matter:


Tenants Sue Kapilina Beach Homes Over Tainted Navy Water


The University of Hawaii (UH) Board of Regents approved an updated master plan for the summit of Mauna Kea for the next twenty years that calls for reducing the number of telescopes from thirteen to nine by 2033.  The board supported the construction of the controversial Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT) provided that a fifth telescope is retired.  Most of the public comments during the meeting came from vocal Native Hawaiian activists who reject any plan that includes TMT construction.  Attempts to restart construction will likely result in more protests and confrontation on the Big Island.

Proponents of continued astronomical activity on Mauna Kea’s summit highlighted astronomy’s $110 million contribution in direct spending and an overall economic contribution of twice that amount.  Telescope operations have injected into the state’s economy over the past fifty years.  Scientists fear that astronomy in the Northern Hemisphere will suffer a major blow if Hawaii removes the telescopes from the summit as some state legislators are considering.  Limitations of spaced based telescopes still highlight the need for high altitude land-based infrastructure.

Maui’s Kaanapali Beach Resort is contending with the same beach erosion challenges as Waikiki and has teamed up with the state Department of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR) to fund a $11 million sand replenishment project.  The beach is the size that it was three decades ago and hope the project will restore the beach for the next twenty years.  Contractors will collect the sand from an 8.5-acre sand deposit about 150 feet offshore and transfer the sand to the shore using a bridge system.  Narrowing beaches will threaten infrastructure built close to the shoreline including hotels and roads. Here's a summary from Office of Conservation and Coastal Lands:


Kāʻanapali Beach Restoration Project Executive Summary


Who would have thought Hawaii would be running out of black cinder, a particular volcanic rock version that fountaining lava expels and then the rock cools before significant exposure to oxygen?  Hawaii’s $80 million flower and nursery plant industry, landscapers, gardeners, and coffee farmers heavily use black cinder.  Hawaii’s current commercial supplies are becoming depleted, and the state will pay a research team to search public and private lands for large deposits of black cinder.  Regulators require farmers exporting potted plants from Hawaii to use black cinder as the planting medium.

Cultural site impacts and rising costs have doomed two planned solar farms on Oahu expected to produce electricity to power 57,000 homes.  The solar farms included the two largest proposed battery systems storing electricity produced during the day to provide power during peak usage in the evening.  Hawaiian Electric Company (HECO) must provide enough renewable energy to offset its planned September 2022 shutdown of Oahu’s coal fired main base-load power generator.  The facility provides 16% of Oahu’s peak power needs. 

The loss of starting UH football players to the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) transfer portal created a messy transition when UH Warriors head coach Todd Graham resigned on January 14th over player complaints about his leadership style.  UH captains, quarterback Chevan Cordeiro and linebacker Darius Muasau, will be playing for different college football teams next year along with several other UH starters.  UH first offered the position to previous head coach, June Jones, but wrote in his contract that UH could veto June Jones’ hiring decisions, require Jones to mentor his replacement, and step down in two years.  June turned down the offer after reading the first few pages of the proposed contract.  Mayor Rick Blangiardi, a former UH player and coach, publicly criticized UH leadership for failing to hire Jones.  UH hired past UH quarterback, Timmy Chang, who accepted the position.  Chang coached with June Jones and Southern Methodist University (SMU) and plans to install a version of the run-and-shoot offense that he thrived in when breaking the NCAA passing yardage record in 2004.  June Jones was quick to voice his support for coach Timmy Chang and Chang expects to seek Jones’ counsel as he takes the reins. To learn more about UH Athletics please click the link below:


The Official Athletics Website


Sea Life Park is reopening its seabird sanctuary and rehabilitation facility after closing it for renovations in September 2021.  The public will name the first two residents, a brown booby and a wedge-tailed shearwater.  Conservationists release some birds to the wild after treatment and a health assessment while others become permanent residents due to chronic injuries.  Permanent residents include wedge-tail shearwaters, a brown booby, a sooty shearwater, and a great frigate bird.  You can read more about Sea Life Park’s conservation programs by clicking on the following link.


Sea Life Park Hawaii


Humpback whale activity has been very active this winter with 278 whale sightings across the state from 9:00 to 9:15 am on Saturday, 1/29/2022.  Cooler artic water temperatures have resulted in a larger number of whales making the trip to Hawaii’s breeding grounds.  Tim and Tracey have spoken to friends who saw humpback whales outside of Kailua Bay as they were paddling in their one-man canoes.  One individual quickly paddled away when spotting a calf without the mother to avoid separating the two and spooking the mother.  To Tim and Tracey’s disappointment, they did not spot any whales when paddling outside Kailua Bay, but they do think they heard whale spouts while enjoying their time on the water.


Tim and Tracey just returned from a three-day weekend on Kauai and witnessed the increased whale activity firsthand while boating off the Napali Coast.  They watched three sets of mothers with their infants and watched a newborn repeatedly breach as it played in the ocean swells.  Weekend activities included a kayak and hike to a spectacular waterfall, and a hike through Waimea canyon.  Tim and Tracey saw the same valley on the Napali coast from a ridge and from the water.  The link below includes a short video of the adventures.

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By Tim Kelley 09 Jan, 2024
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By Tim Kelley 09 Jan, 2024
The December median price for single-family homes was $996,500 (5.1% lower than December 2022) and for condos was $510,000 (1.5% higher than December 2022). Demand continues to fall with 9.9% fewer single-family homes and 24.4% fewer condos sold this December compared to the same month last year. Single-family home sales have fallen twenty-three consecutive months and condo sales have dropped for nineteen straight months. The number of available properties, both single-family homes and condos, appears to be stabilizing yet scarce. There are still only 2.8 months of single-family home and 3.2 months of condo inventory. You can review more detailed current and past real estate market data on our website using the link below. Monthly Statistics October 2023 Market Update A U.S. Court District judge issued a summary judgement granting the Hawaii Legal Short-Term Rental Alliance (HILSTRA) a permanent injunction against a provision of Ordinance 22-7 prohibiting home rental periods between thirty and 89 days for property owners who were following the 30-day minimum rental period before the laws effective date of October 23 rd , 2022. HILSTRA successfully argued that the new law caused immediate and devastating economic harm to landlords and operators legally renting their properties. The permanent injunction will make the thirty to 89-day ban on newer rental properties difficult to enforce. The city has not decided if it will appeal the decision. An article by Civil Beat summarized decades of action or lack of action resulting in the years-long slog many homeowners and contractors experience at the Department of Planning and Permitting (DPP) waiting on permit approval. Back in the 1970’s, a contractor could obtain a building permit the same day by walking plans to each DPP department for signatures and being able to fix issues on the spot when an experienced examiner pointed them out. A loss of institutional knowledge when experienced examiners retired, increased regulation, a failure to update technology, and the removal of face-to-face interaction has resulted in November 2022 permit times of 330 days on average for a residential permit and 420 days on average for a commercial permit. DPP reported an average of a six-month delay in October, easy solar power permits have skewed the numbers since building permits still languish. DPP’s largest problem is hiring since people with an architecture or engineering background can make $20,000 to $50,000 more in the private sector and “don’t get yelled at as much.” Additionally, the Honolulu City Council issued a rash of new regulations from 2016 through 2020 requiring DPP to establish a new department and additional review step. DPP’s director has received additional funding to hire people to reduce the backlog, however, contractors are still waiting “longer than ever” for a permit in the meantime. National Home sales fell to a 13-year low in October and November sales rose slightly above October’s low due to lower mortgage rates. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes have seized up the resale housing market and negatively impacted related businesses like furniture and home improvement stores. The furniture industry and home improvement sector have experienced four straight quarters of falling sales resulting in fewer jobs. Employment related to real estate has stagnated and some real estate agents are reconsidering their career path, particularly after the court verdict that may impact the way clients pay Buyer’s Agents. Economists think mortgage rates will have to drop at least an additional percentage before more sellers become willing to trade their currently low mortgage rates for a new home with a higher rate. Some good news came in the form of growing new home construction and a rise in building permits. The Hawaii Tourism Authority (HTA) reported 731,233 visitors arrived in Hawaii this past November, essentially the same number arriving the November prior. The number is 9.6% lower than the arrivals in November 2019, just prior to the pandemic. International visitors, including Japan, continue to significantly lag the pre-pandemic numbers. In an ironic development, the six-month old panel established by Governor Josh Green to accelerate affordable housing development, approved a school impact fee waiver for a developer to convert a commercial property into a 52-unit apartment building. The waiver does not have any impact on needed building permits. Green’s emergency proclamation was issued with the goal of building 50,000 housing units statewide, but only 1,300 more affordable rental units are in the pipeline. The Department of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR) fined a Sunset Beach homeowner for illegally pouring concrete on the beach to shore up his eroding property. Desperate homeowners have littered the surrounding coastline with boulders, sandbags, and black tarps as the state struggles to enforce laws preventing shoreline hardening that leads to accelerated beach loss. Pictures Soaring hurricane insurance rates are causing some condominium complexes to secure coverage that does not completely cover replacement costs. The rising costs are occurring despite Hawaii not experiencing a direct hit in 31 years because of the global nature of the reinsurance market. An association’s decision to reduce insurance coverage can make it difficult for home buyers to obtain mortgages and pay higher rates. A local insurance expert estimates almost four hundred condo complexes do not have full coverage including luxury buildings in Kakaako. Joint Task Force Red Hill (JTFRH) announced it finished the gravity draining portion of the defueling operation of the Navy’s underground fuel tank facility on December 15 th , 2023, removing almost 150 million gallons of fuel from the site. The last tanker of fuel departed on December 20 th for the Philippines, one of several U.S. sites in the Pacific chosen to receive the drained fuel. Workers must pump about 60,000 gallons of remaining fuel and remove about 30,000 gallons of “sludge.” JTFRH scheduled the removal of the remaining fuel by the end of January, six months earlier than planned. JTF-Red Hill Commander Provides Gravity Defueling Update A jury will decide the merits of a dispute between developer Howard Hughes Corp, developer of Ward Village in Kakaako and the Honolulu Authority for Rapid Transportation (HART) over the cost of the land HART seeks to build the rail project’s Kakaako station. The estimated price tag is $200 million, and HART has already spent $23.3 million in legal fees as of 2021. Howard Hughes Corp. disagrees with HART about receiving “special benefits” and HART using the “special benefits” to calculate the amount paid for the land. HART’s “expert appraiser” valued the land HART wants to take from Howard Hughes Corp. at $14 million. There is no current plan to build the Kakaako station at the heart of the dispute after Mayor Blangiardi postponed the construction of the final 1.25 miles of the line because of cost overruns. The U.S. Army agreed to lease the state Department of Transportation at Kawaihapai Airfield, previously known as Dillingham Airfield on the North Shore, paving the way for continued commercial activity by local businesses. State has less than 30 days to reach deal with military on Dillingham Airfield Heavy rains on December 20 th caused a mudslide on the Pali Highway, closing the Honolulu-bound lanes through the busy holiday weekend. Heavy rainfall has often resulted in mudslides closing the Pali. Multiple landslides in February of 2019 caused the state to declare the Pali Highway a natural disaster area. State construction crews spent months reinforcing the hillside above the Pali Highway and extending the tunnel to protect cars from falling debris. Pali Hwy closed through weekend as crews clear landslide Contractors removed and packed up the Caltech Submillimeter Observatory telescope on Mauna Kea for shipment for Chile in December, the first of five telescopes scientists must decommission on the Mauna Kea summit to make room for the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT). TMT construction remains in limbo as the National Science Foundation completes more environmental studies and the new Mauna Kea Summit Oversight Authority takes over management of the summit. Caltech Submillimeter Observatory Telescope Removal The University of Hawaii’s (UH) new Reserve Officer Training Corps (ROTC) program commissioned its first Ensign on the deck of the Battleship, USS Missouri in December. The newly commissioned officer will serve on the USS Shiloh, based in Pearl Harbor, after completing the three-month Basic Division Officer Course. Tim graduated from Tulane University back in 1989 on a ROTC scholarship and served on the USS Cavalla, a fast-attack submarine based out of Pearl Harbor. A recently released study by an Arizona State University student and former Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology researcher reports fishing of herbivore species to less than 80% of the reef’s unfished density results in lower coral reef health due to the buildup of algae, the fish’s food. The state Department of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR) is considering additional reef fishing restrictions to prevent the overfishing of Hawaii’s coral reef systems. DLNR deployed its one millionth hatchery grown sea urchin in Kaneohe Bay to control two species of invasive seaweed that can suffocate coral reef patches in the bay. Once a month, a team collects twenty-five of the mini “seaweed mowers” and induces them to spawn resulting in larvae 24 hours later. Researchers siphon the swimming larvae off the top and place them in larvae rearing tanks to protect the delicate animals during development. After 28 days, the team grows a biofilm on clear corrugated roofing material that the larvae attach to and start to look like little urchins called spat. Three weeks later, researchers move the spat to grow-out tanks when they are the size of a pencil eraser and then deployed to the bay once they reach the size of a dime. Sea Life Park Hawaii kicked off “The Year of the Honu,” commemorating 50 years of its Honu Conservation program. The conservation program has released over 17,000 turtle hatchlings into the wild over its 50 years in operation. Sea Life Park Events The Lahaina wildfire destroyed Kohala Brewery and its owners rebuilding plan involves brewing their recipes at Kona Brewing Company. The arrangement allows Kohala Brewery to continue shipping beer to customers and take advantage of Kona Brewing Company’s state-of-the-art facility that allows for more tighter quality control and consistency. The second phase of Kohala’s recovery includes rebuilding the taproom and retail business. Oahu craft beer afficionados have a new option available, Howzit Brewing. The Kakaako brewery recently opened a brewery and tasting room in Ward Village. The owner was born on Oahu, learned his trade in the Pacific Northwest craft beer scene, and returned to Oahu to start his own enterprise. December provided a reminder of the danger involved with hiking some of Oahu’s trails. Fortunately, the hiker did not die from the fall. Rescuers found the hiker after a three-day search 1,000 feet below the Pali Notches Trail. The hiker suffered a fractured cheekbone, broken wrist, and several puncture wounds. Five units of about thirteen experienced hikers participated in the search to find the hiker. ‘It’s a miracle’: Hiker who fell 1,000 feet on Oahu trail, was missing for days thanks his rescue.  Take a look at our Another Day in Paradise's Video Another Day in Paradise: Waterfalls
By Tim Kelley 08 Dec, 2023
Stott Real Estate, Inc.
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