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July 2022 Email Update

Tim Kelley • Sep 05, 2023

The June median price for single-family homes was $1,100,000 (12.4% higher than June 2021) and for condos was a record $534,000 (16.1% higher than June 2021).  The rapid rise in mortgage interest rates has already had a profound impact on demand.  There were 20.8% fewer single-family home sales last month compared to June 2021 and 14.2% fewer condo sales last month compared to June 2021.  Pending sales of single-family homes dropped 27.7% last month compared to June 2021 and pending sales of condos dropped 24.8% compared to June 2021.  The difficult interest rate environment may be discouraging some homeowners from selling since there were 18.9% fewer new listings of single-family homes last month compared to June 2021 and 12.5% fewer new listings of condos last month compared to June 2021.  Buyers do not have many choices yet since inventory is very tight.  There are only 1.5 months of single-family home inventory and 1.6 months of condo inventory.


Tim and Tracey listened to the mid-year update for Oahu’s housing market by Hawaii economist, Paul Brewbaker, last week.  Paul predicts that the demand for homes will fall 30% to 45% due to the recent rise in mortgage interest rates if earlier patterns hold, which it was a 15% drop for every 1% increase in mortgage rates; but he does not forecast a drop in prices due to limited supply.  Mortgage rates have reached about 5.75% due to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes and lenders placing a greater risk premium on mortgages.  Despite the rate hike, Brewbaker argues in economist speak that mortgage rates have turned negative due to inflation’s surge.  Tim shares a layman’s disagreement since the interest payments he has been paying on his mortgage have been far from negative.


A major area of concern centers on the recent lack of gross domestic product growth in Hawaii’s economy compared to the rest of the nation.  Hawaii has lagged the country by several percentage points recently and he estimates growth will be 15% lower in the future.  Lower productivity spells trouble for a government that continues to add to its liabilities to fund government operations.


The Supreme Court struck down Hawaii’s law restricting who may have a permit to carry a handgun in public.  Hawaii Police Chiefs will no longer have the discretion to deny law abiding citizens from carrying a handgun outside the home.  The Supreme Court sent George K. Young Jr. v. Hawaii back to the 9th District Circuit Court of Appeals for further consideration considering the Supreme Court’s ruling.  Young, a retired Hilo police officer, had his permit application rejected twice.  Hawaii had issued only four licenses to carry in the past twenty years. You can watch this video report from KITV4 News by clicking the link below:


New Supreme Court gun law gives gun owners more freedoms in Hawaii


Pay-to-play politics is front and center as the issue in Hawaii politics with the Justice Department’s indictments of Hawaii’s political class and private contractors who fill the politician’s re-election campaign coffers.  The most recently indicted executives donated a combined $830,000 to candidates in critical state and county offices and received $12.72 million in state contracts including three to provide consulting, engineering, and other construction services “as-needed.”  The three candidates seeking the Democratic nomination for Governor emphasized their opponents’ fundraising efforts and tried to either isolate themselves from the fallout or paint their opponents as cogs in the pay-to-play system.


The U.S. Navy is seeking an additional $1.1 to make repairs to Red Hill’s fuel facility so  that the underground fuel tanks can be safely drained.  The budget request follows a report released last month stating the Navy must complete major repairs to prevent another fuel spill that could further pollute the nearby ground water.  The state Department of Health must approve the defueling plan before proceeding.  Meanwhile, the Navy has been pumping 4.5 million gallons of water into the Halawa Stream even though there has been no indication of further contamination.  The tremendous waste of water is exacerbating a water shortage on West Oahu. Listen to Hawaii Public Radio's report by clicking the link below:


Red Hill fuel tanks need repairs before draining, Navy contractor report says


The City and County of Honolulu recycling programs rely heavily on transporting waste off the island since Hawaii does not have the capability to process the recycled material.  The city ships cardboard, newspaper, and paper to China and Indonesia while shipping glass to California.  According to a report, 620 tons of plastic waste ends up in the ocean and currents deposit the plastic on beaches months later.  The recycling efforts lease to over 145,000 miles of truck transportation and 4.2 million miles of container vessel transportation.  The city and county would be better off burning green waste, paper, and plastic in the H-Power plant and depositing crushed glass in landfills.  Japan has fourteen factories that grind glass down to silica powder and contractors can use the silica powder for beach sand, golf courses, agriculture, water purification, aquaculture, and heat control.  The Caldwell administration approved a recycling factory but the Department of Planning and Permitting could not approve the permits in a timely manner resulting in one more missed business opportunity for Hawaii entrepreneurs.


The City and County of Honolulu stopped taking applications for rent and utility relief on June 30th (when federal funding for the program ended).  Tenants needed to submit initial relief and recertification applications by the deadline for the remaining $30 million of $225 million in pandemic related funding.  The city considered first time applicants before funds were allocated to people applying for recertification.  Tenants must recertify every three months and can receive up to 18 months of assistance.

The Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI) arrested former Honolulu Prosecuting Attorney, Keith Kaneshiro, on Friday, June 17, 2022.  The FBI          alleges that a Honolulu businessman paid more than $45,000 in campaign contributions to prosecute a former employee.  The employer fired the employee in November 2011, contested her unemployment benefits, and a judge ruled employee eligible to receive benefits a year later.  The businessman persuaded Kaneshiro to investigate and prosecute the employee for working other jobs on company time.  The businessman and family later donated $45,000 to Kaneshiro’s campaign.  Though unrelated, Kaneshiro’s attitude and behavior mirrored that of his employee, assistant prosecutor Katherine Kealoha, who tried to frame her uncle in the theft of a mailbox.  The Justice Department successfully prosecuted Kealoha last year.


Windward Oahu residents can expect further traffic delays through May 2023 due to roadwork on the Pali Highway in Nuuanu and the Kalaniana’ole Highway in Waimanalo.  The resurfacing projects started in March 2021 and include sidewalk improvements, raised cross walks, and LED lighting.  The state Department of Transportation has pointed to supply chain issues contributing to the delays. If you have time for a drive, you can watch this video to enjoy the Pali views:


Pali Highway | HI-61 Pali Hwy 


Honolulu’s Chinatown is enjoying a turnaround after years of struggling with crime and homelessness.  The River of Life ministry agreed to switch from serving food at a Chinatown building that attracted long lines of homeless individuals to serving the population in mobile units that bring the food to locations closer to the homeless individuals.  The mission served about two hundred people a day when they were in Chinatown and now are serving over three hundred people per day from six locations.  The citizen patrols have noticed much less criminal activity, the neighborhood is much cleaner, and there is much less screaming and yelling.


Ocean Defenders Alliance removed 110 tires from Kaneohe Bay weighing 7,200 lbs. on June 26th.  The team of divers using lift bags have removed 219 tires from the bay during three dives over two years at Heeia Small Boat Harbor.  The $25 fee to have a tire dumped encourages the illegal activity.  Of the 110 tires pulled out of the bay, someone dumped eight from the pier Saturday evening according to the harbor master.  It makes one wonder why the harbor master does not intervene and prevent the illegal activity occurring right in front of him.  The tires leach chemicals into the bay harmful to rare coral species.  Volunteers take the tires to H-Power for incineration after divers have pulled the tires from the bay.


The Department of Defense has awarded the University of Hawaii $25 million to build a hybrid reef off the coast of Oahu to dissipate wave energy and protect Oahu’s shoreline.  Contractors will build the base of the reef with thin-walled concrete structures that scientists will attach heat-tolerant coral fragments which will eventually cover the base material.  The finished product will function like a typical fringe reef with a fore reef, a reef crest that absorbs most of the wave energy, and a protected back reef that supports more delicate species.  The goal is to have the man-made structure completely covered with life in five years with an increased biodiversity of fish.

Kailua hosted fireworks on the 4th of July for the first time in three years, but residents will have to wait at least another year for the return of the 4th of July parade.  Concerns about the COVID-19 summer surge convinced organizers to pause.


A plan to transfer naturally occurring bacteria to sterilize male mosquitos has gained the approval of the Department of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR) with the goal of saving two native birds, the akikiki on Kauai and kiwikui on Maui.  The male mosquitos do not bite and do not transmit disease.  The sterilized male mosquitos would mate with female mosquitos resulting in eggs that will not hatch.


Jocelyn Alo finished her illustrious college softball career with 122 home runs and officials awarded Alo the Most Outstanding Player of the 2022 College World Series by leading the Oklahoma Sooners to their second consecutive national championship.


Dean’s Drive Inn, a Kaneohe restaurant serving local plate lunches for 16 years and featured on Food Network’s Diners, Drive-ins, and Dives, is closing.  The owners cited rising costs of food and supplies as the main reason for ceasing operations. Check out some pictures of Dean's Drive Inn:


DEAN'S DRIVE INN PICTURES


Koloa Rum Company is expanding its offerings with new canned cocktails available in guava, pineapple, mango, and coconut.  Koloa blends the sparkling drinks blended with Koloa’s white rum.



Tim and Tracey have participated in the first two races of the 2022 North Shore Swim Series.  Tim has achieved his goal of completing the race without lifeguard assistance and Tracey aims to complete her sixth series of races.  Ocean activities have become a larger focus over the past two years since COVID-19 restrictions place limits on other types of outdoor activities.


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By Tim Kelley 09 Jan, 2024
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By Tim Kelley 09 Jan, 2024
The December median price for single-family homes was $996,500 (5.1% lower than December 2022) and for condos was $510,000 (1.5% higher than December 2022). Demand continues to fall with 9.9% fewer single-family homes and 24.4% fewer condos sold this December compared to the same month last year. Single-family home sales have fallen twenty-three consecutive months and condo sales have dropped for nineteen straight months. The number of available properties, both single-family homes and condos, appears to be stabilizing yet scarce. There are still only 2.8 months of single-family home and 3.2 months of condo inventory. You can review more detailed current and past real estate market data on our website using the link below. Monthly Statistics October 2023 Market Update A U.S. Court District judge issued a summary judgement granting the Hawaii Legal Short-Term Rental Alliance (HILSTRA) a permanent injunction against a provision of Ordinance 22-7 prohibiting home rental periods between thirty and 89 days for property owners who were following the 30-day minimum rental period before the laws effective date of October 23 rd , 2022. HILSTRA successfully argued that the new law caused immediate and devastating economic harm to landlords and operators legally renting their properties. The permanent injunction will make the thirty to 89-day ban on newer rental properties difficult to enforce. The city has not decided if it will appeal the decision. An article by Civil Beat summarized decades of action or lack of action resulting in the years-long slog many homeowners and contractors experience at the Department of Planning and Permitting (DPP) waiting on permit approval. Back in the 1970’s, a contractor could obtain a building permit the same day by walking plans to each DPP department for signatures and being able to fix issues on the spot when an experienced examiner pointed them out. A loss of institutional knowledge when experienced examiners retired, increased regulation, a failure to update technology, and the removal of face-to-face interaction has resulted in November 2022 permit times of 330 days on average for a residential permit and 420 days on average for a commercial permit. DPP reported an average of a six-month delay in October, easy solar power permits have skewed the numbers since building permits still languish. DPP’s largest problem is hiring since people with an architecture or engineering background can make $20,000 to $50,000 more in the private sector and “don’t get yelled at as much.” Additionally, the Honolulu City Council issued a rash of new regulations from 2016 through 2020 requiring DPP to establish a new department and additional review step. DPP’s director has received additional funding to hire people to reduce the backlog, however, contractors are still waiting “longer than ever” for a permit in the meantime. National Home sales fell to a 13-year low in October and November sales rose slightly above October’s low due to lower mortgage rates. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes have seized up the resale housing market and negatively impacted related businesses like furniture and home improvement stores. The furniture industry and home improvement sector have experienced four straight quarters of falling sales resulting in fewer jobs. Employment related to real estate has stagnated and some real estate agents are reconsidering their career path, particularly after the court verdict that may impact the way clients pay Buyer’s Agents. Economists think mortgage rates will have to drop at least an additional percentage before more sellers become willing to trade their currently low mortgage rates for a new home with a higher rate. Some good news came in the form of growing new home construction and a rise in building permits. The Hawaii Tourism Authority (HTA) reported 731,233 visitors arrived in Hawaii this past November, essentially the same number arriving the November prior. The number is 9.6% lower than the arrivals in November 2019, just prior to the pandemic. International visitors, including Japan, continue to significantly lag the pre-pandemic numbers. In an ironic development, the six-month old panel established by Governor Josh Green to accelerate affordable housing development, approved a school impact fee waiver for a developer to convert a commercial property into a 52-unit apartment building. The waiver does not have any impact on needed building permits. Green’s emergency proclamation was issued with the goal of building 50,000 housing units statewide, but only 1,300 more affordable rental units are in the pipeline. The Department of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR) fined a Sunset Beach homeowner for illegally pouring concrete on the beach to shore up his eroding property. Desperate homeowners have littered the surrounding coastline with boulders, sandbags, and black tarps as the state struggles to enforce laws preventing shoreline hardening that leads to accelerated beach loss. Pictures Soaring hurricane insurance rates are causing some condominium complexes to secure coverage that does not completely cover replacement costs. The rising costs are occurring despite Hawaii not experiencing a direct hit in 31 years because of the global nature of the reinsurance market. An association’s decision to reduce insurance coverage can make it difficult for home buyers to obtain mortgages and pay higher rates. A local insurance expert estimates almost four hundred condo complexes do not have full coverage including luxury buildings in Kakaako. Joint Task Force Red Hill (JTFRH) announced it finished the gravity draining portion of the defueling operation of the Navy’s underground fuel tank facility on December 15 th , 2023, removing almost 150 million gallons of fuel from the site. The last tanker of fuel departed on December 20 th for the Philippines, one of several U.S. sites in the Pacific chosen to receive the drained fuel. Workers must pump about 60,000 gallons of remaining fuel and remove about 30,000 gallons of “sludge.” JTFRH scheduled the removal of the remaining fuel by the end of January, six months earlier than planned. JTF-Red Hill Commander Provides Gravity Defueling Update A jury will decide the merits of a dispute between developer Howard Hughes Corp, developer of Ward Village in Kakaako and the Honolulu Authority for Rapid Transportation (HART) over the cost of the land HART seeks to build the rail project’s Kakaako station. The estimated price tag is $200 million, and HART has already spent $23.3 million in legal fees as of 2021. Howard Hughes Corp. disagrees with HART about receiving “special benefits” and HART using the “special benefits” to calculate the amount paid for the land. HART’s “expert appraiser” valued the land HART wants to take from Howard Hughes Corp. at $14 million. There is no current plan to build the Kakaako station at the heart of the dispute after Mayor Blangiardi postponed the construction of the final 1.25 miles of the line because of cost overruns. The U.S. Army agreed to lease the state Department of Transportation at Kawaihapai Airfield, previously known as Dillingham Airfield on the North Shore, paving the way for continued commercial activity by local businesses. State has less than 30 days to reach deal with military on Dillingham Airfield Heavy rains on December 20 th caused a mudslide on the Pali Highway, closing the Honolulu-bound lanes through the busy holiday weekend. Heavy rainfall has often resulted in mudslides closing the Pali. Multiple landslides in February of 2019 caused the state to declare the Pali Highway a natural disaster area. State construction crews spent months reinforcing the hillside above the Pali Highway and extending the tunnel to protect cars from falling debris. Pali Hwy closed through weekend as crews clear landslide Contractors removed and packed up the Caltech Submillimeter Observatory telescope on Mauna Kea for shipment for Chile in December, the first of five telescopes scientists must decommission on the Mauna Kea summit to make room for the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT). TMT construction remains in limbo as the National Science Foundation completes more environmental studies and the new Mauna Kea Summit Oversight Authority takes over management of the summit. Caltech Submillimeter Observatory Telescope Removal The University of Hawaii’s (UH) new Reserve Officer Training Corps (ROTC) program commissioned its first Ensign on the deck of the Battleship, USS Missouri in December. The newly commissioned officer will serve on the USS Shiloh, based in Pearl Harbor, after completing the three-month Basic Division Officer Course. Tim graduated from Tulane University back in 1989 on a ROTC scholarship and served on the USS Cavalla, a fast-attack submarine based out of Pearl Harbor. A recently released study by an Arizona State University student and former Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology researcher reports fishing of herbivore species to less than 80% of the reef’s unfished density results in lower coral reef health due to the buildup of algae, the fish’s food. The state Department of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR) is considering additional reef fishing restrictions to prevent the overfishing of Hawaii’s coral reef systems. DLNR deployed its one millionth hatchery grown sea urchin in Kaneohe Bay to control two species of invasive seaweed that can suffocate coral reef patches in the bay. Once a month, a team collects twenty-five of the mini “seaweed mowers” and induces them to spawn resulting in larvae 24 hours later. Researchers siphon the swimming larvae off the top and place them in larvae rearing tanks to protect the delicate animals during development. After 28 days, the team grows a biofilm on clear corrugated roofing material that the larvae attach to and start to look like little urchins called spat. Three weeks later, researchers move the spat to grow-out tanks when they are the size of a pencil eraser and then deployed to the bay once they reach the size of a dime. Sea Life Park Hawaii kicked off “The Year of the Honu,” commemorating 50 years of its Honu Conservation program. The conservation program has released over 17,000 turtle hatchlings into the wild over its 50 years in operation. Sea Life Park Events The Lahaina wildfire destroyed Kohala Brewery and its owners rebuilding plan involves brewing their recipes at Kona Brewing Company. The arrangement allows Kohala Brewery to continue shipping beer to customers and take advantage of Kona Brewing Company’s state-of-the-art facility that allows for more tighter quality control and consistency. The second phase of Kohala’s recovery includes rebuilding the taproom and retail business. Oahu craft beer afficionados have a new option available, Howzit Brewing. The Kakaako brewery recently opened a brewery and tasting room in Ward Village. The owner was born on Oahu, learned his trade in the Pacific Northwest craft beer scene, and returned to Oahu to start his own enterprise. December provided a reminder of the danger involved with hiking some of Oahu’s trails. Fortunately, the hiker did not die from the fall. Rescuers found the hiker after a three-day search 1,000 feet below the Pali Notches Trail. The hiker suffered a fractured cheekbone, broken wrist, and several puncture wounds. Five units of about thirteen experienced hikers participated in the search to find the hiker. ‘It’s a miracle’: Hiker who fell 1,000 feet on Oahu trail, was missing for days thanks his rescue.  Take a look at our Another Day in Paradise's Video Another Day in Paradise: Waterfalls
By Tim Kelley 08 Dec, 2023
Stott Real Estate, Inc.
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