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June 2022 Email Update

Tim Kelley • Sep 05, 2023

The May median price for single-family homes was a record of $1,153,500 (17.9% higher than May 2021) and the median price for condos was a record $516,500 (12.8% higher than May 2021).  Higher prices and higher interest rates have led to a 15.1% drop in single-family home sales and that demand has shifted to condos resulting in a 15.1% increase.  Single-family home supply has increased slightly to 1.3 months of inventory and condo supply has shrunk to only 1.5 months of inventory.  Summer demand looks softer than 2021 with the number of pending sales dropping for both single-family homes (17.4% reduction) and condos (14.0% reduction).  Struggling homeowners and investors should seriously consider selling in the next few months if the market continues to slow.


The University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization (UHERO) updated their forecast by downgrading projected economic gains in 2022 and 2023.  Asian visitors have delayed their travel plans due to recent surges in COVID-19 cases due to the delta and omicron variants.  While the United States has lifted most government restrictions, significant return restrictions still exist in many Asian countries like Japan, Hawaii’s largest international market.  UHERO predicts that high inflation plus a 5% decline in real income due to expiring federal transfer payments will result in struggles for some families living paycheck to paycheck.  Oahu’s population losses will limit overall economic growth yet that is not likely to impact real estate prices or rents as supply remains tight.  The Red Hill shaft contamination could limit new home builds if the Board of Water Supply places a moratorium on new water meters.  You can see the entire report and video from the link below:


UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaii: Foreign visitors will provide lift, but risks have multiplied


The City of Honolulu limits tenants receiving rental assistance through the City of Honolulu’s Rental and Utility Relief Program to 18 months of assistance and roughly five hundred households have reached the limit.  A program that provided critical assistance when government enforced shutdowns prevented people from working, has become a crutch for some tenants.  Stott Property Management, LLC has seen most tenants receiving aid act responsibly and proactively work with the rental aid organizations to stay current on their rental payments and has witnessed some tenants refuse in to contribute any rent from their personal proceeds and fall far enough behind in rent payments to require eviction.  The city’s unfortunate policy of paying $2,500 towards delinquent rent and only $2,000 towards future rent has encouraged some tenants to fall several months behind in the hopes of attracting more aid and placing unnecessary pressure on landlords who must pay mortgages.  Stott Property Management, LLC has returned to its pre-pandemic enforcement of payment deadlines to minimize their client’s risk of losing collectable rental income.


A KHON2 article highlighting the shrinking supply of rental housing confirms that landlords will sell when government makes renting a difficult and money losing business.  It was a little shocking that the news organization failed to make any effort in finding out the causes of the shrinking rental market by interviewing landlords that were selling, property managers, or real estate agents.  David Ige and the state legislature put the burden of pandemic related government shutdowns on landlords by prohibiting evictions during the first sixteen months of the pandemic and then adding extra steps to an already tenant friendly eviction process.  Government officials consistently touted they were helping the situation by providing rental assistance yet failed to mention that rental assistance did not always cover the rent, and failed to allow landlords to apply for rental assistance without the cooperation of the tenants.  One of Stott Property Management, LLC’s clients will remove another rental property from the market when the owner will finally be free of a non-rent-paying tenant and will sell the condo.  An owner-occupant will most likely buy the property since high sales prices and rising interest rates make real estate investing on Oahu a poor option.


Hawaii’s tourism industry reported positive results for the month of April.  Visitor numbers reached 96% of pre-pandemic levels and more importantly, visitor spending rose 21% compared to April 2019 totals.  Average spending by U.S. West visitors reached $223 per person compared to the $171 per person averaged in April 2019 and overall spending by all U.S. visitors rose 24%.  While the headline numbers look promising, the article did not break out figures by visitor spending at hotels versus visitor spending at Hawaii small businesses.


The U.S. Navy has agreed to the state Department of Health’s (DOH) emergency order to drain the Red Hill underground fuel tanks by June 30, 2022, and to close the facility by November 1 2022.  The U.S. Navy will end years of tension with environmentalists who argued that the U.S. Navy was failing to operate the tanks safely and could not quickly detect fuel leaks nor prevent major fuel leaks in the future.  The military quickly built the Red Hill underground fuel tanks during World War II addressing concerns that the military’s above-ground fuel tanks were vulnerable to attack.  The U.S. Navy must continue cleaning up the jet fuel contaminated Red Hill shaft. Here's a quick video from KHON2:


DOH orders Navy to empty Red Hill underground storage tanks, treat contaminated drinking water


The DOH fined the U.S. Marine Corps $240,250 for discharging insufficiently treated sewage into Kailua Bay between August 2020 and February 2022 and failing to promptly notify DOH when the discharges above the acceptable limits occurred.  DOH ordered upgrades to Kaneohe Marine Corps Base wastewater treatment facility to prevent accidental releases of bacteria laden wastewater in the bay.  The U.S. Marine Corps has requested a contested case hearing regarding the fines and required corrective actions while “working to improve operations and oversight, upgrade our (wastewater treatment facility) to eliminate reoccurrence of these issues, and to more efficiently treat wastewater and implement additions to the facility that will reduce the overall water consumption of the installation.”  It seems obvious that wastewater treatment is not and should not be a core competency of the U.S. Marine Corps.


Rational financial decision-making continues to elude the state legislature.  Legislators failed to approve the Hawaii Tourism Authority’s $64 million request for rooftop repairs for the Hawaii Convention Center.  Animosity between the legislature and HTA has resulted in spending hundreds of thousands of dollars for repairing preventable water damage to a state-owned building.  Additionally, the state puts future business at risk since conventions do not want to hold events in water damaged facilities. You can take a video tour by clicking the link below:


Hawaii Convention Center Site Inspection Experience


The state Department of Health (DOH) has fallen behind its revised schedule of moving all state mental health patients to the new Kaneohe facility after letting the new facility sit empty for more than a year.  The DOH has moved only one-third of the patients after committing to moving all the patients to the facility by the end of May in its April briefing to state legislators.  The DOH is trying to shift the blame to poor construction while failing to identify safety and health issues like using the wrong door handles, hinges, and poorly draining showers while the building sat empty over the past year.  The DOH and union officials have still not agreed on building policies.

The state of Hawaii has still not settled on an acceptable form of baseline electrical power to maintain grid stability but has initially decided that burning trees was the wrong answer.  The state Public Utilities Commission (PUC) rejected Honua Ola Bioenergy’s plan to produce energy by burning eucalyptus trees stating that the project’s plan to capture carbon was speculative and that operations would produce significant greenhouse gases.


The Honolulu City Council passed the recovery plan proposed by the Honolulu Authority on Rapid Transportation 6-3. The recovery plan ends the rail line in Kakaako versus the planned station at Ala Moana and eliminates a 1,600-space parking garage at Pearl Highlands.  Councilmember Heidi Tsuneyoshi voted against the recovery plan because elimination of the parking garage designed to accommodate passengers from Central Oahu and the North Shore.  The price tag for the parking garage was $330 million or $200,000 for each parking stall.  Only the government officials and contractors can justify construction costs that exceed the cost of privately built studio apartments.

The city council passed an annual budget that includes funds to remove the Haiku Stairs, popularly known as the Stairway to Heaven.  People looking for a major workout before enjoying the view may soon only have the Koko Head Stairs, popularly known as Stairmaster from Hell, as an option.


Two Mauna Kea observatories, the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope, and the Submillimeter Arrays, participated in a world-wide eight radio telescope project to create the image of the black hole, Sagittarius A*, located at the center of the Milky Way.  This is the second time the two Hawaii-based telescopes helped create black hole images.  Powehi was the first black hole ever photographed in 2017.  Powehi, the black hole with a Hawaiian name meaning “the adorned fathomless dark creation,” is 1,000 times larger than Sagittarius A*. Here's a great video from MAUI NOW:


Hawaiʻi telescope helps reveal first image of Black Hole at the center of the Milky Way Galaxy


The University of Hawaii Rainbow Warriors volleyball team repeated as national champions by sweeping arch-rival Long Beach State in the NCAA Men’s Collegiate Volleyball Championship final Saturday, May 5, 2022.  UH’s successful defense involved a sweep of North Greenville, a come from behind five-set victory against Ball State, and then the sweep of Long Beach State.  The Rainbow Warriors definitively answered the question of the superior Big West team by sweeping Long Beach State in the finals of the Big West tournament and the NCAA tournament.  Long Beach State won the national championship in 2018 and 2019 and UH won the national championship in 2021 and 2022.  There was no 2020 champion due to the pandemic.


UH Rainbow Warrior baseball finished the season in strong fashion.  Head coach Rich Hill led the Bows to its best record in the Big West over 10 years finishing 19-11 in the conference for third place.  UH hired him with the hopes that he could help break the string of mediocre seasons.


UH tennis player, Andre Ilagan, became only the second UH student to participate in the NCAA Men’s Singles Championship.  Ilagan is a home-grown talent that played high school tennis at Farrington High School and stayed home to play for UH.  Ilagan often surprised higher ranking national tennis players who underestimated the 5’8” athlete by hitting the ball harder and more accurately than his physically larger opponents.  Ilagan plans on playing one more year at UH despite graduating with a degree in finance to build on his tremendous season.  He lost in the first round of the tournament, 6-3, 6-7, 6-2 to Alabama’s top ranked tennis player.


Former Campbell High School phenom Jocelyn Alo led the #1 Oklahoma Sooners to the College World Series again this year.  Alo, credited with having one of the most beautiful swings in softball and baseball, holds the record for most home runs over a college career (currently 117) while batting an astonishing .497 this season as of June 1, 2022.


The Hawaii Food & Wine Festival announced its schedule of events from October 20, 2022, through November 6, 2022, that takes place on Maui, Oahu, and The Big Island over three weekends.  World recognized chefs, Alan Wong, and Roy Yamaguchi, started the festival 12 years ago to highlight local talent and Hawaii’s local ingredients.  Use the link below to find the event’s schedule.


HAWAI'I FOOD & WINE FESTIVAL


Out-of-state visitors must make reservations to Diamond Head State Monument.  The reservation system started on May 12, 2022, and park officials turned away approximately 40% of the people that arrived at 6:00 am resulting in a minor bottleneck at the park entrance.  State residents may visit the park without a reservation and paying the park fee by showing a Hawaii driver’s license or state-issued ID.  The goal is to help preserve the park and visitor experience by limiting the number of visitors every hour and spreading out the visits during the day.  The city first successfully implemented the reservation system at Haunama Bay and the state hopes to replicate the park reservation system at Hawaii’s most popular sites.  Visitors can make reservations fourteen days in advance by visiting the following website:


DIVISION OF STATE PARKS

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By Tim Kelley 09 Jan, 2024
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By Tim Kelley 09 Jan, 2024
The December median price for single-family homes was $996,500 (5.1% lower than December 2022) and for condos was $510,000 (1.5% higher than December 2022). Demand continues to fall with 9.9% fewer single-family homes and 24.4% fewer condos sold this December compared to the same month last year. Single-family home sales have fallen twenty-three consecutive months and condo sales have dropped for nineteen straight months. The number of available properties, both single-family homes and condos, appears to be stabilizing yet scarce. There are still only 2.8 months of single-family home and 3.2 months of condo inventory. You can review more detailed current and past real estate market data on our website using the link below. Monthly Statistics October 2023 Market Update A U.S. Court District judge issued a summary judgement granting the Hawaii Legal Short-Term Rental Alliance (HILSTRA) a permanent injunction against a provision of Ordinance 22-7 prohibiting home rental periods between thirty and 89 days for property owners who were following the 30-day minimum rental period before the laws effective date of October 23 rd , 2022. HILSTRA successfully argued that the new law caused immediate and devastating economic harm to landlords and operators legally renting their properties. The permanent injunction will make the thirty to 89-day ban on newer rental properties difficult to enforce. The city has not decided if it will appeal the decision. An article by Civil Beat summarized decades of action or lack of action resulting in the years-long slog many homeowners and contractors experience at the Department of Planning and Permitting (DPP) waiting on permit approval. Back in the 1970’s, a contractor could obtain a building permit the same day by walking plans to each DPP department for signatures and being able to fix issues on the spot when an experienced examiner pointed them out. A loss of institutional knowledge when experienced examiners retired, increased regulation, a failure to update technology, and the removal of face-to-face interaction has resulted in November 2022 permit times of 330 days on average for a residential permit and 420 days on average for a commercial permit. DPP reported an average of a six-month delay in October, easy solar power permits have skewed the numbers since building permits still languish. DPP’s largest problem is hiring since people with an architecture or engineering background can make $20,000 to $50,000 more in the private sector and “don’t get yelled at as much.” Additionally, the Honolulu City Council issued a rash of new regulations from 2016 through 2020 requiring DPP to establish a new department and additional review step. DPP’s director has received additional funding to hire people to reduce the backlog, however, contractors are still waiting “longer than ever” for a permit in the meantime. National Home sales fell to a 13-year low in October and November sales rose slightly above October’s low due to lower mortgage rates. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes have seized up the resale housing market and negatively impacted related businesses like furniture and home improvement stores. The furniture industry and home improvement sector have experienced four straight quarters of falling sales resulting in fewer jobs. Employment related to real estate has stagnated and some real estate agents are reconsidering their career path, particularly after the court verdict that may impact the way clients pay Buyer’s Agents. Economists think mortgage rates will have to drop at least an additional percentage before more sellers become willing to trade their currently low mortgage rates for a new home with a higher rate. Some good news came in the form of growing new home construction and a rise in building permits. The Hawaii Tourism Authority (HTA) reported 731,233 visitors arrived in Hawaii this past November, essentially the same number arriving the November prior. The number is 9.6% lower than the arrivals in November 2019, just prior to the pandemic. International visitors, including Japan, continue to significantly lag the pre-pandemic numbers. In an ironic development, the six-month old panel established by Governor Josh Green to accelerate affordable housing development, approved a school impact fee waiver for a developer to convert a commercial property into a 52-unit apartment building. The waiver does not have any impact on needed building permits. Green’s emergency proclamation was issued with the goal of building 50,000 housing units statewide, but only 1,300 more affordable rental units are in the pipeline. The Department of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR) fined a Sunset Beach homeowner for illegally pouring concrete on the beach to shore up his eroding property. Desperate homeowners have littered the surrounding coastline with boulders, sandbags, and black tarps as the state struggles to enforce laws preventing shoreline hardening that leads to accelerated beach loss. Pictures Soaring hurricane insurance rates are causing some condominium complexes to secure coverage that does not completely cover replacement costs. The rising costs are occurring despite Hawaii not experiencing a direct hit in 31 years because of the global nature of the reinsurance market. An association’s decision to reduce insurance coverage can make it difficult for home buyers to obtain mortgages and pay higher rates. A local insurance expert estimates almost four hundred condo complexes do not have full coverage including luxury buildings in Kakaako. Joint Task Force Red Hill (JTFRH) announced it finished the gravity draining portion of the defueling operation of the Navy’s underground fuel tank facility on December 15 th , 2023, removing almost 150 million gallons of fuel from the site. The last tanker of fuel departed on December 20 th for the Philippines, one of several U.S. sites in the Pacific chosen to receive the drained fuel. Workers must pump about 60,000 gallons of remaining fuel and remove about 30,000 gallons of “sludge.” JTFRH scheduled the removal of the remaining fuel by the end of January, six months earlier than planned. JTF-Red Hill Commander Provides Gravity Defueling Update A jury will decide the merits of a dispute between developer Howard Hughes Corp, developer of Ward Village in Kakaako and the Honolulu Authority for Rapid Transportation (HART) over the cost of the land HART seeks to build the rail project’s Kakaako station. The estimated price tag is $200 million, and HART has already spent $23.3 million in legal fees as of 2021. Howard Hughes Corp. disagrees with HART about receiving “special benefits” and HART using the “special benefits” to calculate the amount paid for the land. HART’s “expert appraiser” valued the land HART wants to take from Howard Hughes Corp. at $14 million. There is no current plan to build the Kakaako station at the heart of the dispute after Mayor Blangiardi postponed the construction of the final 1.25 miles of the line because of cost overruns. The U.S. Army agreed to lease the state Department of Transportation at Kawaihapai Airfield, previously known as Dillingham Airfield on the North Shore, paving the way for continued commercial activity by local businesses. State has less than 30 days to reach deal with military on Dillingham Airfield Heavy rains on December 20 th caused a mudslide on the Pali Highway, closing the Honolulu-bound lanes through the busy holiday weekend. Heavy rainfall has often resulted in mudslides closing the Pali. Multiple landslides in February of 2019 caused the state to declare the Pali Highway a natural disaster area. State construction crews spent months reinforcing the hillside above the Pali Highway and extending the tunnel to protect cars from falling debris. Pali Hwy closed through weekend as crews clear landslide Contractors removed and packed up the Caltech Submillimeter Observatory telescope on Mauna Kea for shipment for Chile in December, the first of five telescopes scientists must decommission on the Mauna Kea summit to make room for the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT). TMT construction remains in limbo as the National Science Foundation completes more environmental studies and the new Mauna Kea Summit Oversight Authority takes over management of the summit. Caltech Submillimeter Observatory Telescope Removal The University of Hawaii’s (UH) new Reserve Officer Training Corps (ROTC) program commissioned its first Ensign on the deck of the Battleship, USS Missouri in December. The newly commissioned officer will serve on the USS Shiloh, based in Pearl Harbor, after completing the three-month Basic Division Officer Course. Tim graduated from Tulane University back in 1989 on a ROTC scholarship and served on the USS Cavalla, a fast-attack submarine based out of Pearl Harbor. A recently released study by an Arizona State University student and former Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology researcher reports fishing of herbivore species to less than 80% of the reef’s unfished density results in lower coral reef health due to the buildup of algae, the fish’s food. The state Department of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR) is considering additional reef fishing restrictions to prevent the overfishing of Hawaii’s coral reef systems. DLNR deployed its one millionth hatchery grown sea urchin in Kaneohe Bay to control two species of invasive seaweed that can suffocate coral reef patches in the bay. Once a month, a team collects twenty-five of the mini “seaweed mowers” and induces them to spawn resulting in larvae 24 hours later. Researchers siphon the swimming larvae off the top and place them in larvae rearing tanks to protect the delicate animals during development. After 28 days, the team grows a biofilm on clear corrugated roofing material that the larvae attach to and start to look like little urchins called spat. Three weeks later, researchers move the spat to grow-out tanks when they are the size of a pencil eraser and then deployed to the bay once they reach the size of a dime. Sea Life Park Hawaii kicked off “The Year of the Honu,” commemorating 50 years of its Honu Conservation program. The conservation program has released over 17,000 turtle hatchlings into the wild over its 50 years in operation. Sea Life Park Events The Lahaina wildfire destroyed Kohala Brewery and its owners rebuilding plan involves brewing their recipes at Kona Brewing Company. The arrangement allows Kohala Brewery to continue shipping beer to customers and take advantage of Kona Brewing Company’s state-of-the-art facility that allows for more tighter quality control and consistency. The second phase of Kohala’s recovery includes rebuilding the taproom and retail business. Oahu craft beer afficionados have a new option available, Howzit Brewing. The Kakaako brewery recently opened a brewery and tasting room in Ward Village. The owner was born on Oahu, learned his trade in the Pacific Northwest craft beer scene, and returned to Oahu to start his own enterprise. December provided a reminder of the danger involved with hiking some of Oahu’s trails. Fortunately, the hiker did not die from the fall. Rescuers found the hiker after a three-day search 1,000 feet below the Pali Notches Trail. The hiker suffered a fractured cheekbone, broken wrist, and several puncture wounds. Five units of about thirteen experienced hikers participated in the search to find the hiker. ‘It’s a miracle’: Hiker who fell 1,000 feet on Oahu trail, was missing for days thanks his rescue.  Take a look at our Another Day in Paradise's Video Another Day in Paradise: Waterfalls
By Tim Kelley 08 Dec, 2023
Stott Real Estate, Inc.
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