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September 2022 Email Update

Tim Kelley • Sep 05, 2023

The August median price for single-family homes was $1,125,000 (7.2% higher than August 2021) and for condos was $498,000 (0.3% lower than August 2021) as higher mortgage interest rates and sales prices continue to dampen demand.  The number of single-family homes sold in August was 314, 26.1% lower than last year, and condos sold was 508, 24.7% lower than last year.  The number of closed sales has returned to pre-pandemic levels.  Properties under contract but not yet sold have dropped even more with the number of single-family homes under contract falling to 312, 24.8% lower than last year and condos under contract falling to 654, 33.2% lower than last year.  The reduction in demand has exceeded the reduction in new supply resulting in slightly higher inventories.  There are currently 1.7 months of single-family homes and 1.8 months of condos available.


The home exemption filing deadline for the City and County of Honolulu is September 30th for next year’s property taxes.  The home exemption is particularly important for owner occupants due to recent changes that charge property owners that don’t have an exemption higher property tax rate.  You can file a homeowner’s exemption by using the link below.


DEPARTMENT OF BUDGET AND FISCAL SERVICES REAL PROPERTY ASSESSMENT DIVISION


The Honolulu City Council is considering increased shoreline setbacks that potential buyers should pay attention to before purchasing an oceanfront lot for future development.  The new rule would raise the 40-foot setback to a minimum of 60 feet and up to 130 feet should the erosion and sea-level rise impact the property.  The rate of the setback increase would equal 70 times the annual erosion rate of the property and is based on the average 70-year house lifetime.

Housing affordability, or the lack thereof, was headlined in August by the Wall Street Journal.  Rising interest rates and rising home prices have resulted in a $650 monthly increase in June 2022 mortgage payments compared to January 2022.  Sellers will have to temper their expectations as fewer buyers will result in fewer bidding wars on available homes.


Homeowners building plans will suffer continued delays as the Department of Planning and Permitting (DPP) reported a backlog 8,000 permits in the initial processing phase or department review despite announcements by Mayor Rick Blangiardi that he would make addressing the backlog a priority.  City councilors promise to streamline the process instead of removing DPP from the review process and holding contractors accountable for their work.  Residential and commercial permits currently take six months to two years to get approved.


Visitor counts have reached the highest level since the months just prior to the COVID-19 pandemic with July domestic visitor counts exceeding the July 2019 numbers.  International traveler numbers are still down with Japan serving as the largest market for international visitors.  Visitor spending rose 5.8% compared to July 2019 to $11.16 billion.

The state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism (DBEDT) lowered its growth forecast for 2022 and 2023 due to high inflation and the resulting rise in interest rates.  DBEDT lowered its 2022 growth forecast to 2.6% from 3.2% and its 2023 growth forecast to 1.7 versus 2.5%.  Ironically, the state predicts weakness in the housing industry even though sales prices are at record highs and state politicians constantly talk about solving the housing shortage on the islands.  Tourism remains the bright spot with visitor counts reaching 86.8% of 2019 numbers and spending has reached record levels as a result of inflation.  DBEDT predicts that a shortage of workers will constrain future growth as Hawaii continues to experience a net migration of people out of the state searching for better opportunities.


Department of Business, Economic Development & TourismA study by Grassroot Institute of Hawaii puts to rest the bogus claim that mainland buyers drive up Hawaii home prices.  Data shows that the percentage of out-of-state buyers dropped the years between 2010 and 2020, the percentage of local buyers trended up, and out-of-state buyers were not bidding on the same properties as local buyers.  The main culprit for rising home prices is the large number of government barriers to development in the form of land use, zoning, and homebuilding regulations.  The main reason for Hawaii’s housing shortage is that Hawaii leads the nation in regulations resulting in a severe shortage.

Condo owners have another financial headache to contend with as described in a Civil Beat article.  Honolulu has the second highest maintenance fees in the country behind New York City.  The average maintenance fee in Honolulu is $762 per month compared to the national average of $286 per month.  The average Honolulu maintenance fee is equal to a single-family home mortgage elsewhere making Honolulu condos as expensive as many single-family homes.  High insurance premiums, expensive maintenance items (elevators, central A/C, etc.), and wages drive the high fees and prices continue to rise as a building ages.


Hawaii residents lead the nation in life expectancy at an average lifespan of 80.7 years.  Hawaii is the only state to exceed the 80-year threshold and its average life expectancy is nine years higher than last place Mississippi.


A new state agency is not only developing affordable housing property for teachers on Maui, but it also redefined the term.  The Honolulu Star Advertiser reported that David Ige release $15 million to build housing in Lahainaluna.  Tim imagined an apartment complex with upwards of 50 units to provide much needed housing for Maui’s educators.  However, since public contractors are involved, Maui County projects that the money will build 10 to 16 homes at a cost of $937,500 to $1.5 million per home.  The per unit cost exceeds Maui’s median home price by over $100,000 at the lower estimate and begs the question?  Why doesn’t Maui County just go out and purchase homes on the real estate market?  There are many answers, and most are too snarky to include in this paragraph.  The state proves once again that it should just get out of the way and deregulate the housing market so private contractors can actually build affordable housing.


"A BILL FOR AN ACT RELATING TO LAND"


Governor David Ige signed a new emergency proclamation suspending the state licensing requirement for visiting nurses and doctors as the state’s hospitals are operating at capacity even though the COVID-19 summer surge is easing.  Staffing shortages continue as 800 to 1,000 healthcare workers are unavailable on any given day due to sickness.


The Honolulu Authority for Rapid Transportation (HART) started extensive operational testing on Monday, 8/29/2022 with much shorter delays than previous efforts.  The first test run started 10 minutes late because one of the stations was not ready to receive the train.  The next day’s test run started 5 minutes late due to delayed train maintenance.  The testing is expected to run at least 90 days and the system must pass 98.5% of the time over 30 days.  HART still has construction hurdles to resolve before the first leg of the project can be turned over to the city.  The Federal Transit Authority has not approved the shortened 18.75 mile, 19 station route and engineers must review the severity of cracks discovered in station supports.


Chinatown residents, encouraged by a smaller homeless population and an increased police presence, picked up trash and painted over graffiti on buildings on August 27th and August 28th.  The residents and businesspeople were joined by Mayor Rick Blangiardi, Honolulu Prosecutor Steve Alm, and Police Chief Joe Logan.  Neighbors hope that the new civic involvement creates the type of positive momentum that Chinatown has struggled to create over the past few decades.


Oahu’s first solar farm backed by batteries started selling electricity to Hawaiian Electric Company in August.  The 39-Megawatt facility is the first of seven projects slated to come online in the next couple of years as HECO scrambles to replace the power supplied by its coal-powered plant scheduled to close in September.  HECO announced it will raise residential rates by 7% to support its renewable energy push.


Mililani I Solar now sending clean energy to Oahu gridThe University of Hawaii is not waiting around for the planned replacement of Aloha Stadium to seat enough fans to support a Division I football program.  Too many steps are required to replace the rusted stadium and Hawaii has repeatedly failed to complete large projects on time, on budget, if ever.  The modification will increase seating to 16,909 in time for the 2023 football season.  The next hurdle will be convincing 16,000 people to attend a home game.


Hawaiian Airlines has teamed up with the University of Hawaii to expand its aviation maintenance certification and training program by donating $1 million per year and offering experienced employees to help train and educate students.  The initiative aims to double enrollment to 100 students per semester and shorten the apprenticeship timeline by two years.  The aviation industry is struggling with a shortage of certified mechanics and must hire an estimated 610,000 mechanics over the next decade to keep up with air travel demand.


The Honolulu Little League All-Star Team capped a championship run at the Little League World Series in Williamsport, PA with a 13-3 victory over Curacau on August 28th.  The team of 12-year-olds dominated the tournament winning six games by a combined score of 60-5 and won four games by the ten-run mercy rule.  The coach from Tennessee complemented the kids and head coach after his team’s 5-1 loss by stating, “they might be the best United States team that’s ever been through here.  I hate that they are so good, but I also hate that they are all so nice.  Their coach Gerald is so great.  Their kids are so well-mannered and very respectful.”  Congratulations to the boys.

Feral pigs have invaded the upscale Aina Haina neighborhood whose population has exploded during the COVID-19 pandemic ruining landscaping and threatening residents.  Pigs have been important part of Hawaiian culture and is still an important source of protein.  Early in the pandemic, neighbors started feeding the pigs mangos and other scraps.  Well-fed pigs will reproduce prolifically, and a sow can deliver two litters per year often totaling thirteen piglets.  The neighborhood board has asked residents to refrain from feeding the pigs.


As Hawaii’s feral pig population grows, a ‘non-toxic’ birth control could offer a solutionWaikiki Elementary School fourth graders named Rocky’s latest son, Koalani which means heavenly warrior in Hawaii. The children claimed that it fits Koalani’s independent nature and may be appropriate as the son of a seal named after a fictitious boxer in Philadelphia.



Koalani was weaned on August 18th and relocated by the state Department of Land and Natural Resources to a remote Oahu beach where he can grow up in the company of other monk seals.  He received is flipper tags and a morbillivirus vaccine before being set free.  A pup’s naivete’ and curiosity helps reduce stress during the relocation process.  While Rocky was nursing Koalani, Rocky’s granddaughter, Imikai, gave birth to Rocky’s great-granddaughter, RQ88.  RQ88 is the fifth known monk seal to be born on Lanai since 2014.  Hawaii monk seals are one of the most endangered seals species and receive both federal and state protection.


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By Tim Kelley 09 Jan, 2024
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By Tim Kelley 09 Jan, 2024
The December median price for single-family homes was $996,500 (5.1% lower than December 2022) and for condos was $510,000 (1.5% higher than December 2022). Demand continues to fall with 9.9% fewer single-family homes and 24.4% fewer condos sold this December compared to the same month last year. Single-family home sales have fallen twenty-three consecutive months and condo sales have dropped for nineteen straight months. The number of available properties, both single-family homes and condos, appears to be stabilizing yet scarce. There are still only 2.8 months of single-family home and 3.2 months of condo inventory. You can review more detailed current and past real estate market data on our website using the link below. Monthly Statistics October 2023 Market Update A U.S. Court District judge issued a summary judgement granting the Hawaii Legal Short-Term Rental Alliance (HILSTRA) a permanent injunction against a provision of Ordinance 22-7 prohibiting home rental periods between thirty and 89 days for property owners who were following the 30-day minimum rental period before the laws effective date of October 23 rd , 2022. HILSTRA successfully argued that the new law caused immediate and devastating economic harm to landlords and operators legally renting their properties. The permanent injunction will make the thirty to 89-day ban on newer rental properties difficult to enforce. The city has not decided if it will appeal the decision. An article by Civil Beat summarized decades of action or lack of action resulting in the years-long slog many homeowners and contractors experience at the Department of Planning and Permitting (DPP) waiting on permit approval. Back in the 1970’s, a contractor could obtain a building permit the same day by walking plans to each DPP department for signatures and being able to fix issues on the spot when an experienced examiner pointed them out. A loss of institutional knowledge when experienced examiners retired, increased regulation, a failure to update technology, and the removal of face-to-face interaction has resulted in November 2022 permit times of 330 days on average for a residential permit and 420 days on average for a commercial permit. DPP reported an average of a six-month delay in October, easy solar power permits have skewed the numbers since building permits still languish. DPP’s largest problem is hiring since people with an architecture or engineering background can make $20,000 to $50,000 more in the private sector and “don’t get yelled at as much.” Additionally, the Honolulu City Council issued a rash of new regulations from 2016 through 2020 requiring DPP to establish a new department and additional review step. DPP’s director has received additional funding to hire people to reduce the backlog, however, contractors are still waiting “longer than ever” for a permit in the meantime. National Home sales fell to a 13-year low in October and November sales rose slightly above October’s low due to lower mortgage rates. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes have seized up the resale housing market and negatively impacted related businesses like furniture and home improvement stores. The furniture industry and home improvement sector have experienced four straight quarters of falling sales resulting in fewer jobs. Employment related to real estate has stagnated and some real estate agents are reconsidering their career path, particularly after the court verdict that may impact the way clients pay Buyer’s Agents. Economists think mortgage rates will have to drop at least an additional percentage before more sellers become willing to trade their currently low mortgage rates for a new home with a higher rate. Some good news came in the form of growing new home construction and a rise in building permits. The Hawaii Tourism Authority (HTA) reported 731,233 visitors arrived in Hawaii this past November, essentially the same number arriving the November prior. The number is 9.6% lower than the arrivals in November 2019, just prior to the pandemic. International visitors, including Japan, continue to significantly lag the pre-pandemic numbers. In an ironic development, the six-month old panel established by Governor Josh Green to accelerate affordable housing development, approved a school impact fee waiver for a developer to convert a commercial property into a 52-unit apartment building. The waiver does not have any impact on needed building permits. Green’s emergency proclamation was issued with the goal of building 50,000 housing units statewide, but only 1,300 more affordable rental units are in the pipeline. The Department of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR) fined a Sunset Beach homeowner for illegally pouring concrete on the beach to shore up his eroding property. Desperate homeowners have littered the surrounding coastline with boulders, sandbags, and black tarps as the state struggles to enforce laws preventing shoreline hardening that leads to accelerated beach loss. Pictures Soaring hurricane insurance rates are causing some condominium complexes to secure coverage that does not completely cover replacement costs. The rising costs are occurring despite Hawaii not experiencing a direct hit in 31 years because of the global nature of the reinsurance market. An association’s decision to reduce insurance coverage can make it difficult for home buyers to obtain mortgages and pay higher rates. A local insurance expert estimates almost four hundred condo complexes do not have full coverage including luxury buildings in Kakaako. Joint Task Force Red Hill (JTFRH) announced it finished the gravity draining portion of the defueling operation of the Navy’s underground fuel tank facility on December 15 th , 2023, removing almost 150 million gallons of fuel from the site. The last tanker of fuel departed on December 20 th for the Philippines, one of several U.S. sites in the Pacific chosen to receive the drained fuel. Workers must pump about 60,000 gallons of remaining fuel and remove about 30,000 gallons of “sludge.” JTFRH scheduled the removal of the remaining fuel by the end of January, six months earlier than planned. JTF-Red Hill Commander Provides Gravity Defueling Update A jury will decide the merits of a dispute between developer Howard Hughes Corp, developer of Ward Village in Kakaako and the Honolulu Authority for Rapid Transportation (HART) over the cost of the land HART seeks to build the rail project’s Kakaako station. The estimated price tag is $200 million, and HART has already spent $23.3 million in legal fees as of 2021. Howard Hughes Corp. disagrees with HART about receiving “special benefits” and HART using the “special benefits” to calculate the amount paid for the land. HART’s “expert appraiser” valued the land HART wants to take from Howard Hughes Corp. at $14 million. There is no current plan to build the Kakaako station at the heart of the dispute after Mayor Blangiardi postponed the construction of the final 1.25 miles of the line because of cost overruns. The U.S. Army agreed to lease the state Department of Transportation at Kawaihapai Airfield, previously known as Dillingham Airfield on the North Shore, paving the way for continued commercial activity by local businesses. State has less than 30 days to reach deal with military on Dillingham Airfield Heavy rains on December 20 th caused a mudslide on the Pali Highway, closing the Honolulu-bound lanes through the busy holiday weekend. Heavy rainfall has often resulted in mudslides closing the Pali. Multiple landslides in February of 2019 caused the state to declare the Pali Highway a natural disaster area. State construction crews spent months reinforcing the hillside above the Pali Highway and extending the tunnel to protect cars from falling debris. Pali Hwy closed through weekend as crews clear landslide Contractors removed and packed up the Caltech Submillimeter Observatory telescope on Mauna Kea for shipment for Chile in December, the first of five telescopes scientists must decommission on the Mauna Kea summit to make room for the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT). TMT construction remains in limbo as the National Science Foundation completes more environmental studies and the new Mauna Kea Summit Oversight Authority takes over management of the summit. Caltech Submillimeter Observatory Telescope Removal The University of Hawaii’s (UH) new Reserve Officer Training Corps (ROTC) program commissioned its first Ensign on the deck of the Battleship, USS Missouri in December. The newly commissioned officer will serve on the USS Shiloh, based in Pearl Harbor, after completing the three-month Basic Division Officer Course. Tim graduated from Tulane University back in 1989 on a ROTC scholarship and served on the USS Cavalla, a fast-attack submarine based out of Pearl Harbor. A recently released study by an Arizona State University student and former Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology researcher reports fishing of herbivore species to less than 80% of the reef’s unfished density results in lower coral reef health due to the buildup of algae, the fish’s food. The state Department of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR) is considering additional reef fishing restrictions to prevent the overfishing of Hawaii’s coral reef systems. DLNR deployed its one millionth hatchery grown sea urchin in Kaneohe Bay to control two species of invasive seaweed that can suffocate coral reef patches in the bay. Once a month, a team collects twenty-five of the mini “seaweed mowers” and induces them to spawn resulting in larvae 24 hours later. Researchers siphon the swimming larvae off the top and place them in larvae rearing tanks to protect the delicate animals during development. After 28 days, the team grows a biofilm on clear corrugated roofing material that the larvae attach to and start to look like little urchins called spat. Three weeks later, researchers move the spat to grow-out tanks when they are the size of a pencil eraser and then deployed to the bay once they reach the size of a dime. Sea Life Park Hawaii kicked off “The Year of the Honu,” commemorating 50 years of its Honu Conservation program. The conservation program has released over 17,000 turtle hatchlings into the wild over its 50 years in operation. Sea Life Park Events The Lahaina wildfire destroyed Kohala Brewery and its owners rebuilding plan involves brewing their recipes at Kona Brewing Company. The arrangement allows Kohala Brewery to continue shipping beer to customers and take advantage of Kona Brewing Company’s state-of-the-art facility that allows for more tighter quality control and consistency. The second phase of Kohala’s recovery includes rebuilding the taproom and retail business. Oahu craft beer afficionados have a new option available, Howzit Brewing. The Kakaako brewery recently opened a brewery and tasting room in Ward Village. The owner was born on Oahu, learned his trade in the Pacific Northwest craft beer scene, and returned to Oahu to start his own enterprise. December provided a reminder of the danger involved with hiking some of Oahu’s trails. Fortunately, the hiker did not die from the fall. Rescuers found the hiker after a three-day search 1,000 feet below the Pali Notches Trail. The hiker suffered a fractured cheekbone, broken wrist, and several puncture wounds. Five units of about thirteen experienced hikers participated in the search to find the hiker. ‘It’s a miracle’: Hiker who fell 1,000 feet on Oahu trail, was missing for days thanks his rescue.  Take a look at our Another Day in Paradise's Video Another Day in Paradise: Waterfalls
By Tim Kelley 08 Dec, 2023
Stott Real Estate, Inc.
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