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October 2022 Email Update

Tim Kelley • Sep 05, 2023

The September median sales price for single-family homes was $1,100,000 (4.8% higher than September 2021) and for condos was $502,500 (5.1% higher than September 2021).  Rapidly rising mortgage rates are dampening demand.  There were 34.4% fewer single-family homes sold in September compared to September 2021 and 19.3% fewer condos.  The higher interest caused sellers to hesitate with 26.2% fewer single-family home listings and 18.6% fewer condo sales compared to the same month last year.  Inventory is creeping up in the slowing market with 43.9% more single-family homes available and 10.8% more condos available.  There is 1.9 months of single-family home inventory and 2.0 months of condos.


You can review more detailed current and past real estate market data on our website using the link below.


Monthly StatisticsYou may also listen to our Monthly Newsletter from our recently created podcast, Real Estate Tips of the Day & Quarterly Real Estate Articles by clicking the link below:Stott Real Estate, Inc. PodcastThe S & P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index showed the first drop in average home prices across the nation since January 2019, indicating that the pandemic-fueled home price surge has peaked.  The index reflects a three-month rolling average with a two-month delay and experts expect continued average price reductions over the coming months.  The July average of $389,500 is 0.3% lower than June yet 15.8% higher than July 2021.  While Sellers should expect lower prices than this Spring, Buyers should expect to pay more for a house than last year and higher monthly mortgage payments.  The average mortgage rate jumped from 6.29% to 6.70% during the week ending September 30th as turmoil in the bond market drove up interest rates, and Bank of Hawaii is offering fixed mortgage rates of 6.375% the week ending September 30th.  Expensive areas like San Francisco and Seattle experienced monthly price drops of 3.5% and 3.1% respectively and Oahu Sellers should expect the same.


Median asking rents, a leading indicator, have peaked according to three rental property companies in July.  CoStar Group reported a 0.1% drop in the September median rent, Rent.com showed a 2.8% drop in September median rent for one-bedroom apartments, and Realtor.com showed a modest drop in September median rent.  While asking rents are falling, tenants signing one-year leases will still pay monthly rent increases of 7.1% since most leases renew every twelve to 24 months.  Median rents have increased nationally 23% since August 2020.  Economists expect monthly rents to continue drifting lower as rents typically decrease in the winter months and fewer tenants are renewing leases and doubling up to save money in this inflationary environment.  During Tim’s monthly calculations of market rents, he noticed the monthly rents on new leases were roughly 10% lower than monthly rents in the spring.


Developers may get some well-deserved relief as top city planning and permitting officials resign citing differences in philosophy with Mayor Rick Blangiardi.  The Honolulu Star-Advertiser did not state the philosophical differences, but developers hope that the changes the mayor is pushing results in less micromanagement by overworked, critically understaffed, staff members.


The U.S. Navy has shortened the timeline to drain the Red Hill Fuel Tanks by 5 months after receiving pressure from the state and environmental groups to speed up the process.  The Navy has committed to shortening the repair timeline by two months and the defueling phase by three months.  The project reported that it expects to remove 1 million gallons of fuel from the tanks by July 2024 versus the initial report of completing the project by the end of 2024.  The Navy just admitted that hundreds of water samples taken in the first few weeks of the crisis were never tested for fuel contamination despite urging military residents to call a hotline if they thought their water was contaminated.  The Navy dumped the samples one month after collection resulting in valuable lost time to identifying the contaminants and finding the source of the leak.

Navy shortens Red Hill defueling timeline, trains personnel for spill drills. | Hawaii's Public RadioThe Federal Transit Authority (FTA) approved the Honolulu Authority for Rapid Transportation’s (HART’s) shortened route for the remaining $744 million in funding.  The FTA released $125 million of that funding and will release an additional $250 million of funding when HART awards the contract for the final leg of the construction.  HART must award the contract for Kakaako’s Civic Center station by 2024.

The city reopened the Rental and Utility Relief Program will opened October 3, 2022, to distribute the remaining $35 million of $225 million in pandemic-related federal funds.  The program will distribute monthly payments of up to $2,500 for eligible households.


The City and County of Honolulu finally condemned a Waikiki apartment building after acquiring the property for $3.04 million.  The city will refurbish the facility to create affordable senior housing.


David Ige has returned to form by scrapping the latest plan for Aloha Stadium in favor of a government run facility.  True to form, Governor Ige has stated that a government run facility is superior to a private partnership.  Given the state’s failure to build large projects on time and within budget, no one currently knows when the project will start and finish and how expensive it will be for taxpayers.  Two senior stadium officials are questioning the move since it will simply cause further delays.  One official was quoted by the Honolulu Star-Advertiser stating, “I don’t know what his plan is, but I can tell you that we are so far along in our procurement that we are ready to move and proceed, and we have been for quite some time.  We’ve been waiting for that green light.  So, I think my concern is any change at this point will cause a delay or will cause us to have to start over, and that’s what I would hate to see is to start this process over and kick this project out even further.”  The official also disputes that $350 million will be sufficient to cover the costs of the stadium’s build since it is based on a 2017 estimate.  The stadium was once projected to be built by 2023 and that has now been pushed back to at least 2027.  Maybe Ige can save money by having HART manage the project and both the rail system and stadium can be delayed indefinitely.  The University of Hawaii was clairvoyant in starting construction on the Warriors expanded on campus facility.


Demand at the Hawaii Food Bank is increasing as more families struggle to keep up with inflation.  A reduction in government help, a drop in donations, and supply chain issues have crimped supply as the holiday season approaches.  The Hawaii Food Bank currently helps about 120,000 people per month and those numbers will likely increase through the end of the year.


The Navy has towed the USS Bowfin to dry dock for six weeks of maintenance, repairs, and a new coat of paint.  The submarine was christened on December 7th, 1942, and earned the nickname, the Pearl Harbor Avenger.  The submarine has been a mainstay of Pearl Harbor tours.

USS Bowfin DrydockNew drone footage shows increasingly desperate homeowners erecting illegal coast hardening structures to keep their homes from falling onto the beach as the state struggles to develop a long-term solution.  One homeowner recently constructed a moss rock retaining wall along the beach and covered it with a lanai.  Another homeowner is constructing a cement retaining wall fronting the same beach.  The Department of Permitting and Planning has not responded to requests for comment.


Oceanit, a local tech company, has partnered with Hawaii Gas to pilot a pipe surface treatment to remove the risk of hydrogen embrittlement failure and to decrease operating costs.  Moving hydrogen through existing high-pressure systems has risks.  Hawaii Gas operates at lower pressures and is the only utility to blend hydrogen with natural gas in the United States.  In addition to creating a barrier to hydrogen penetration, the treatment provides an ultra-slick surface that minimizes drag.  The United States has over 3 million miles of pipeline and the use of hydrogen could further reduce the carbonization of fossil fuels.

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) urges relocation of the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT) to a different location and suggests a smaller facility.  The EPA comments state that local indigenous people are most negatively impacted by the project even though the project yields net economic benefits to the Big Island and the state.  TMT opponents were both surprised and pleased by the report.


Bellows Air Force Base is erecting fencing along the perimeter of the base as required by the federal government’s anti-terrorism efforts.  The contractors are trying to keep the fence on the Bellow’s side of the ridge, but the terrain does require fencing on some parts of the ridgeline.

Maui has taken the rare common-sense approach of allowing the homeless to sleep in their cars at a county lot versus being forced to trudge around the island and sleep in homeless camps.  The step should save the county millions while providing a safer alternative to rest.


Seabird fallout season has begun on Hawaii and the Hawaii Wildlife Center is again asking residents to drop off grounded fledglings to centers like Kailua’s Feather and Fur Animal Hospital and other vets on the Leeward Side and North Shore.  Young seabirds leave their burrows out to sea guided by moonlight, and many become disoriented by urban lights and circle around them until they land exhausted or collide with structures.  The grounded fledglings are vulnerable to predators, starvation, or getting hit by cars.  Hundreds of seabirds are downed each year in need of rescue.  560 seabirds were rescued last year with a 96% release rate.  Here is a link to Hawaii Wildlife Center’s website.


HAWAI‘I WILDLIFE CENTER


For more than 40 years, Hawaiian botanists have risked life and limb to find endangered plants and collect cuttings, flowers, or seeds.  The ordeal involves rappelling down cliff faces of 1,000 feet, hanging from helicopters, or hiking for days to remote locations.  Botanists can now rely on drones equipped with a fishing pole like appendage to collect the material necessary to replenish the endangered plants.

Tim and Tracey’s cat, Snowflake, passed away last year and Buddy has reached a ripe old age of 13 and sleeps most of the day.  The silver lining is that a Kolea has adopted Tim and Tracey’s front yard as part of its territory.  Here is a link to a video of the Kolea hunting for bugs.


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By Tim Kelley 09 Jan, 2024
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By Tim Kelley 09 Jan, 2024
The December median price for single-family homes was $996,500 (5.1% lower than December 2022) and for condos was $510,000 (1.5% higher than December 2022). Demand continues to fall with 9.9% fewer single-family homes and 24.4% fewer condos sold this December compared to the same month last year. Single-family home sales have fallen twenty-three consecutive months and condo sales have dropped for nineteen straight months. The number of available properties, both single-family homes and condos, appears to be stabilizing yet scarce. There are still only 2.8 months of single-family home and 3.2 months of condo inventory. You can review more detailed current and past real estate market data on our website using the link below. Monthly Statistics October 2023 Market Update A U.S. Court District judge issued a summary judgement granting the Hawaii Legal Short-Term Rental Alliance (HILSTRA) a permanent injunction against a provision of Ordinance 22-7 prohibiting home rental periods between thirty and 89 days for property owners who were following the 30-day minimum rental period before the laws effective date of October 23 rd , 2022. HILSTRA successfully argued that the new law caused immediate and devastating economic harm to landlords and operators legally renting their properties. The permanent injunction will make the thirty to 89-day ban on newer rental properties difficult to enforce. The city has not decided if it will appeal the decision. An article by Civil Beat summarized decades of action or lack of action resulting in the years-long slog many homeowners and contractors experience at the Department of Planning and Permitting (DPP) waiting on permit approval. Back in the 1970’s, a contractor could obtain a building permit the same day by walking plans to each DPP department for signatures and being able to fix issues on the spot when an experienced examiner pointed them out. A loss of institutional knowledge when experienced examiners retired, increased regulation, a failure to update technology, and the removal of face-to-face interaction has resulted in November 2022 permit times of 330 days on average for a residential permit and 420 days on average for a commercial permit. DPP reported an average of a six-month delay in October, easy solar power permits have skewed the numbers since building permits still languish. DPP’s largest problem is hiring since people with an architecture or engineering background can make $20,000 to $50,000 more in the private sector and “don’t get yelled at as much.” Additionally, the Honolulu City Council issued a rash of new regulations from 2016 through 2020 requiring DPP to establish a new department and additional review step. DPP’s director has received additional funding to hire people to reduce the backlog, however, contractors are still waiting “longer than ever” for a permit in the meantime. National Home sales fell to a 13-year low in October and November sales rose slightly above October’s low due to lower mortgage rates. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes have seized up the resale housing market and negatively impacted related businesses like furniture and home improvement stores. The furniture industry and home improvement sector have experienced four straight quarters of falling sales resulting in fewer jobs. Employment related to real estate has stagnated and some real estate agents are reconsidering their career path, particularly after the court verdict that may impact the way clients pay Buyer’s Agents. Economists think mortgage rates will have to drop at least an additional percentage before more sellers become willing to trade their currently low mortgage rates for a new home with a higher rate. Some good news came in the form of growing new home construction and a rise in building permits. The Hawaii Tourism Authority (HTA) reported 731,233 visitors arrived in Hawaii this past November, essentially the same number arriving the November prior. The number is 9.6% lower than the arrivals in November 2019, just prior to the pandemic. International visitors, including Japan, continue to significantly lag the pre-pandemic numbers. In an ironic development, the six-month old panel established by Governor Josh Green to accelerate affordable housing development, approved a school impact fee waiver for a developer to convert a commercial property into a 52-unit apartment building. The waiver does not have any impact on needed building permits. Green’s emergency proclamation was issued with the goal of building 50,000 housing units statewide, but only 1,300 more affordable rental units are in the pipeline. The Department of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR) fined a Sunset Beach homeowner for illegally pouring concrete on the beach to shore up his eroding property. Desperate homeowners have littered the surrounding coastline with boulders, sandbags, and black tarps as the state struggles to enforce laws preventing shoreline hardening that leads to accelerated beach loss. Pictures Soaring hurricane insurance rates are causing some condominium complexes to secure coverage that does not completely cover replacement costs. The rising costs are occurring despite Hawaii not experiencing a direct hit in 31 years because of the global nature of the reinsurance market. An association’s decision to reduce insurance coverage can make it difficult for home buyers to obtain mortgages and pay higher rates. A local insurance expert estimates almost four hundred condo complexes do not have full coverage including luxury buildings in Kakaako. Joint Task Force Red Hill (JTFRH) announced it finished the gravity draining portion of the defueling operation of the Navy’s underground fuel tank facility on December 15 th , 2023, removing almost 150 million gallons of fuel from the site. The last tanker of fuel departed on December 20 th for the Philippines, one of several U.S. sites in the Pacific chosen to receive the drained fuel. Workers must pump about 60,000 gallons of remaining fuel and remove about 30,000 gallons of “sludge.” JTFRH scheduled the removal of the remaining fuel by the end of January, six months earlier than planned. JTF-Red Hill Commander Provides Gravity Defueling Update A jury will decide the merits of a dispute between developer Howard Hughes Corp, developer of Ward Village in Kakaako and the Honolulu Authority for Rapid Transportation (HART) over the cost of the land HART seeks to build the rail project’s Kakaako station. The estimated price tag is $200 million, and HART has already spent $23.3 million in legal fees as of 2021. Howard Hughes Corp. disagrees with HART about receiving “special benefits” and HART using the “special benefits” to calculate the amount paid for the land. HART’s “expert appraiser” valued the land HART wants to take from Howard Hughes Corp. at $14 million. There is no current plan to build the Kakaako station at the heart of the dispute after Mayor Blangiardi postponed the construction of the final 1.25 miles of the line because of cost overruns. The U.S. Army agreed to lease the state Department of Transportation at Kawaihapai Airfield, previously known as Dillingham Airfield on the North Shore, paving the way for continued commercial activity by local businesses. State has less than 30 days to reach deal with military on Dillingham Airfield Heavy rains on December 20 th caused a mudslide on the Pali Highway, closing the Honolulu-bound lanes through the busy holiday weekend. Heavy rainfall has often resulted in mudslides closing the Pali. Multiple landslides in February of 2019 caused the state to declare the Pali Highway a natural disaster area. State construction crews spent months reinforcing the hillside above the Pali Highway and extending the tunnel to protect cars from falling debris. Pali Hwy closed through weekend as crews clear landslide Contractors removed and packed up the Caltech Submillimeter Observatory telescope on Mauna Kea for shipment for Chile in December, the first of five telescopes scientists must decommission on the Mauna Kea summit to make room for the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT). TMT construction remains in limbo as the National Science Foundation completes more environmental studies and the new Mauna Kea Summit Oversight Authority takes over management of the summit. Caltech Submillimeter Observatory Telescope Removal The University of Hawaii’s (UH) new Reserve Officer Training Corps (ROTC) program commissioned its first Ensign on the deck of the Battleship, USS Missouri in December. The newly commissioned officer will serve on the USS Shiloh, based in Pearl Harbor, after completing the three-month Basic Division Officer Course. Tim graduated from Tulane University back in 1989 on a ROTC scholarship and served on the USS Cavalla, a fast-attack submarine based out of Pearl Harbor. A recently released study by an Arizona State University student and former Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology researcher reports fishing of herbivore species to less than 80% of the reef’s unfished density results in lower coral reef health due to the buildup of algae, the fish’s food. The state Department of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR) is considering additional reef fishing restrictions to prevent the overfishing of Hawaii’s coral reef systems. DLNR deployed its one millionth hatchery grown sea urchin in Kaneohe Bay to control two species of invasive seaweed that can suffocate coral reef patches in the bay. Once a month, a team collects twenty-five of the mini “seaweed mowers” and induces them to spawn resulting in larvae 24 hours later. Researchers siphon the swimming larvae off the top and place them in larvae rearing tanks to protect the delicate animals during development. After 28 days, the team grows a biofilm on clear corrugated roofing material that the larvae attach to and start to look like little urchins called spat. Three weeks later, researchers move the spat to grow-out tanks when they are the size of a pencil eraser and then deployed to the bay once they reach the size of a dime. Sea Life Park Hawaii kicked off “The Year of the Honu,” commemorating 50 years of its Honu Conservation program. The conservation program has released over 17,000 turtle hatchlings into the wild over its 50 years in operation. Sea Life Park Events The Lahaina wildfire destroyed Kohala Brewery and its owners rebuilding plan involves brewing their recipes at Kona Brewing Company. The arrangement allows Kohala Brewery to continue shipping beer to customers and take advantage of Kona Brewing Company’s state-of-the-art facility that allows for more tighter quality control and consistency. The second phase of Kohala’s recovery includes rebuilding the taproom and retail business. Oahu craft beer afficionados have a new option available, Howzit Brewing. The Kakaako brewery recently opened a brewery and tasting room in Ward Village. The owner was born on Oahu, learned his trade in the Pacific Northwest craft beer scene, and returned to Oahu to start his own enterprise. December provided a reminder of the danger involved with hiking some of Oahu’s trails. Fortunately, the hiker did not die from the fall. Rescuers found the hiker after a three-day search 1,000 feet below the Pali Notches Trail. The hiker suffered a fractured cheekbone, broken wrist, and several puncture wounds. Five units of about thirteen experienced hikers participated in the search to find the hiker. ‘It’s a miracle’: Hiker who fell 1,000 feet on Oahu trail, was missing for days thanks his rescue.  Take a look at our Another Day in Paradise's Video Another Day in Paradise: Waterfalls
By Tim Kelley 08 Dec, 2023
Stott Real Estate, Inc.
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