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December 2022 Email Update

Tim Kelley • Sep 05, 2023

The November median sales price for single-family homes was $1,149,500 (9.5% higher than November 2021) and for condos was $480,000 (4.0% lower than November 2021).  Higher interest rates continue to cool demand.  The number of single-family home sales was 48.2% lower and condos was 43.4% lower than last year.  Inventory continues to climb.  There is currently 2.2 months of single-family home inventory and 2.3 months of condo inventory.


The housing market shows more signs of cooling with national home prices dropping for the third straight month.  The median price has dropped 2.6% from June through September as rising mortgage rates make mortgages too expensive for some prospective buyers.   Buyers may see additional relief as the Federal Reserve announced that it will most likely raise rates by 0.5% versus the previous 0.75% increases after the last three sessions.  The 10-year Treasury dropped to 3.699% from 3.746% after the announcement.  Mortgage rates are typically set by adding a risk premium to the 10-year Treasury rate.


The Hawaii Tourism Authority (HTA) has determined that staff may have violated state procurement laws when awarding the Council for Native Hawaiian Advancement (CNHA) the U.S. tourism contract worth more than $100 million.  The HTA may have to bid the contract for the third time delaying the decision for over two years.  The HTA called a special board meeting to discuss the issue and investigate a secret meeting with Governor Ige and the Department of Business, Economic Development, and Tourism.  The Hawaii visitor industry is protesting the secret meeting demanding transparency in the procurement process.


The City and County of Honolulu has hired Municipal Debt Collections to enforce fines levied by the Department of Planning and Permitting (DPP) for illegal vacation rental activity as defined by Ordinance 22-7.  Owners of illegal vacation rentals will be fined $10,000 per day and the city has dedicated seven DPP workers to catch violators.  The city will first issue a notice of violation where the owner has 30 days to correct the violation.  The city will then impose fines until the violation has been corrected.  The owner has 60 days to pay the fine or they will be turned over to collections.  The city will place a lien on the property if the fine has not been paid in full after 90 days.  Mayor Rick Blangiardi claims that the city is able to scan 60 vacation websites every day searching for violators.


The city stopped taking new applications after receiving 8,000 since temporarily reopening in the city’s drive to spend the remaining funds allocated by the federal government.  Stott Property Management, LLC has received confirmation that some tenants have received more funding while others are still waiting on a decision.

A recent software upgrade that can partially screen applications has been put in place allowing the existing Department of Planning and Permitting personnel to complete the more technical reviews.  The DPP permit backlog has shrunk to about 6,000 pending permits and recent streamlining efforts by the legislature should help move the permit approvals along. Currently it takes an average of 298 days to approve a residential building permit.


A North Shore development received special approval to build three residences on micropiles, high strength concrete bars descending 12 to 20 feet below to tie into the coral substrate.  The project will not have any projected impact on coastal erosion and will avoid flooding even if the sea level rises 3.2 feet.  A single-family home was demolished on the land in 2016.  The owners applied for a special management area permit and received approval with only one dissenting vote.  Maybe a common sense approach is developing.


Living at Pipeline - North Shore of Oahu, HawaiiThe Civil Beat reported the lack of voter enthusiasm and reduced in-person voting options resulted in a 10% drop in statewide voter participation.  Oahu had only two places to vote in person on election day, Kapolei and Honolulu Hale. The wait times at Honolulu Hale reached over an hour as the 7:00 pm deadline to vote approached.  Many voters failed to receive their ballots in the mail and others still preferred to vote “old school.”  10,000 people voted in person versus the 6,600 that cast ballots at the polls two years ago.  As expected, Dr. Josh Green won the gubernatorial race receiving 65% of the votes.  Republicans did flip two races where the incumbents were charged with drunk driving and had their charges dropped on technicalities.  The voters in those two districts decided to hold their representatives accountable for their behavior.


In typical bureaucratic behavior, the U.S. Navy is discussing with federal officials on how much they will participate in a roundtable discussion convened by the state and federal environmental regulators.  According to the regional commander, “defense officials in Washington, D.C., are working out details about what level of participation there will be from the Navy.”  Work on the plan to chart fuel remediation contamination has been stalled for the past couple of months.


The Honolulu Authority of Rapid Transportation does not have a solution for the 21 “Hammerhead” cracks along the rail route.  13 of the cracks can be filled with epoxy to keep out moisture and eight require more extensive repairs.  The limited rail service will be pushed out until the repairs have been approved and executed.

Pacific Business News’ Kam Napier highlighted the latest rule allowing Hawaiian Electric Company to charge the public higher rates during peak electricity usage from 5:00 to 9:00 pm.  He argues that the higher rates punish those working-class families who can’t shift their electricity usage to earlier in the day because they are at work.  The shift in peak usage to later in the day is a result of the state Public Utilities Commission (PUC) focus on adding solar energy to the islands renewable energy capacity.

The City and County of Honolulu is running out of time to name its new landfill location as the Board of Water Supply (BWS) rejects the six sites identified by the city.  All six sites are located above Oahu’s aquifer system that has become a source of increased sensitivity due to the U.S. Navy’s jet fuel contamination of the Red Hill Shaft.  The city does have the option of appealing and contends that the new landfills double liner design will protect the aquifer below from chemical contamination.

An Alaska Mokulele partnership has added a third interisland solution for mainland visitors joining Hawaiian and Southwest Airlines.  The new agreement starts in 2023 and is about booking convenience for Alaska Airline customers.  The new partnership will offer 10 interisland flights daily to Kapalua, Hana, Hilo, Waimea, and Kohala.  There are existing Mokulele flights to Molokai and Lanai.


Hawaii’s healthcare worker shortage continues to grow.  The chronic shortage started long before the COVID-19 pandemic and has grown to 3,873 job openings for nurses and nurse aids.  There are hundreds more job openings for medical assistants, personal care assistants, and phlebotomists (people who collect blood samples).

Moana Loa erupted for the first time since 1984 at about 11:30 on 11/27/2022 providing spectacular views of lava fountaining in a growing summit lake.  The vents are on a level part of the mountain and the lava is headed towards Hilo.  Scientists describe the path as the best possible route placing Hilo far from danger.  If it continues, the lava could take a week before hitting the outskirts of Hilo.  The eruption was accompanied by earthquakes, the largest measuring 4.2 on the Richter Scale.  Here is a link to drone footage over the flow.


Mauna Loa eruption: Aerial video show lava, ash spewing from Hawaii volcanoThe eruption has invited mischief.  An unknown individual planted an explosive device near the old Saddle Road and police closed off viewing of the eruption for five hours while neutralizing the device and concluding their investigation.  The lava continues to creep toward the Saddle Road during the seventh day of the eruption.

1,100 gallons of fire suppressant foam spilled at the Navy’s Red Hill fuel facility on 11/29/2022.  The spill is yet another contamination related event as the Navy struggles to drain the fuel tanks without causing more problems.


The University of Hawaii Wahine Volleyball (UH) team lost to the Louisiana State University Tigers (KSU) in the first round of the NCAA tournament.  UH entered the tournament seeded 8th and lost three sets to one to LSU despite LSU’s 16-win, 14-loss record.  The loss follows a pattern of UH failing to beat the top Division One teams after dominating the Big West Conference.

Environmental groups and the state are working towards reclaiming a 132,000 acre of state-owned land leased to the U.S. Army serving as a live artillery training ground.  The land sits between Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea and connects two federally owned training sites.  The lease expires in 2029 and the U.S. Army is trying to renew it.  The environmental impact statement (EIS) has gaps concerning pollution concerns and the type of live-fire activities taking place in the future.  The area known as Pohakuloa, supported several native plants and biologists have collected seeds in hopes of reintroducing them to the area.  The greatest threats to native species in the area come from invasive plants and animals like wild goats and sheep that have been allowed to run rampant.  The state hopes to reverse these negative trends if it ends the lease with the U.S. Army.


A preservation group, Friends of the Haiku Stairs, is trying to block the removal of the stairs, known as the Stairway to Heaven, and build support to reopen the popular hike.  The group would like to resurrect the city’s plan to provide legal access to the stairs and eventually provide funds to maintain the stairs.  The removal was scheduled to be completed by the end of this year and cost $1.3 million to remove by helicopter.  The project is expected to begin in 2023.  Proponents of the stairs argue that it will cost much more to remove, the removal will cause environmental damage, and hikers will continue to access the summit by the more dangerous remaining path or summit hike from Moanalua.


Hawaii Stairway to Heaven Hike GoPro Drone (Haiku Stairs)The Nature Conservancy is offering a $2 million policy that will cover reef repairs due to Hurricanes or powerful Tropical Storms.  The Nature Conservancy’s plan follows the world’s first reef insurance for the Mexican coastal state of Quintana Roo.  The policy will be triggered by wind speeds of 57 mph within the proximity of Hawaii’s reefs.

Hawaii spinner dolphins are at risk of disease by the same bacteria threatening the Hawaii monk seal, Toxoplasmosis.  Feral cats host the bacteria, and the eggs are spread by the cat’s feces.  The bacteria can survive up to two years in the environment and are carried to the ocean by rainwater.  Two dolphins have been killed by Toxoplasmosis over the past decade and the disease has been found in 60 dolphins over the past thirty years.


Drone studies conducted by researchers have discovered that sand is moving from one end of Waikiki beach to another versus moving out to sea as initially suspected.  The information will be used for further beach management decisions.

Chainsaw drone could be the title of another B-rate horror flick, is a tool researchers are using to gain a closeup view of rapid Ohia death.  The drone grasps a branch of a tree and uses a circular saw to remove a branch for retrieval.  The scientists test the branch for fungal infection and map trees spreading the infection.  Rapid Ohia death is caused by two fungal infections of which there is no known cure.


The Maui Ocean Center proposed a $12 million building to house a sea turtle hospital, coral nursery, research laboratory, and classrooms on the aquarium’s existing property.  The Maui City Council expressed support for the plan and referred a zoning change proposal to the Maui Council Planning Commission.  The Maui Ocean Marine Institute, the organization that would move into the building, has been working out of shipping containers for the past six years.

Maui Ocean Center (The Aquarium Of Hawaii) Tour & Review with The LegendA battle pitting the little guy against the big guy comes in the form of a pig farmer who has been in business for twenty-two years and the new buyer of the property who shut off the water line to the piggery causing over 100 pigs to die.  The farmer is asking the state to help save the remaining pigs after the Hawaii Supreme Court rejected his petition.  The new buyer claims the lease is invalid because it represents a sublease of the land despite the lease being between the previous owner and the farmer.  State law stipulates that lease contracts are superior to the sale of property and the lease should remain in effect.  The Hawaii Supreme Court denied the request stating that the farmer had other means to support his claim. 



We often talk to owners about moving back into their rental property to claim the home exemption.  The rules have changed, and this video gives a bit more information regarding the benefit.


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By Tim Kelley 09 Jan, 2024
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By Tim Kelley 09 Jan, 2024
The December median price for single-family homes was $996,500 (5.1% lower than December 2022) and for condos was $510,000 (1.5% higher than December 2022). Demand continues to fall with 9.9% fewer single-family homes and 24.4% fewer condos sold this December compared to the same month last year. Single-family home sales have fallen twenty-three consecutive months and condo sales have dropped for nineteen straight months. The number of available properties, both single-family homes and condos, appears to be stabilizing yet scarce. There are still only 2.8 months of single-family home and 3.2 months of condo inventory. You can review more detailed current and past real estate market data on our website using the link below. Monthly Statistics October 2023 Market Update A U.S. Court District judge issued a summary judgement granting the Hawaii Legal Short-Term Rental Alliance (HILSTRA) a permanent injunction against a provision of Ordinance 22-7 prohibiting home rental periods between thirty and 89 days for property owners who were following the 30-day minimum rental period before the laws effective date of October 23 rd , 2022. HILSTRA successfully argued that the new law caused immediate and devastating economic harm to landlords and operators legally renting their properties. The permanent injunction will make the thirty to 89-day ban on newer rental properties difficult to enforce. The city has not decided if it will appeal the decision. An article by Civil Beat summarized decades of action or lack of action resulting in the years-long slog many homeowners and contractors experience at the Department of Planning and Permitting (DPP) waiting on permit approval. Back in the 1970’s, a contractor could obtain a building permit the same day by walking plans to each DPP department for signatures and being able to fix issues on the spot when an experienced examiner pointed them out. A loss of institutional knowledge when experienced examiners retired, increased regulation, a failure to update technology, and the removal of face-to-face interaction has resulted in November 2022 permit times of 330 days on average for a residential permit and 420 days on average for a commercial permit. DPP reported an average of a six-month delay in October, easy solar power permits have skewed the numbers since building permits still languish. DPP’s largest problem is hiring since people with an architecture or engineering background can make $20,000 to $50,000 more in the private sector and “don’t get yelled at as much.” Additionally, the Honolulu City Council issued a rash of new regulations from 2016 through 2020 requiring DPP to establish a new department and additional review step. DPP’s director has received additional funding to hire people to reduce the backlog, however, contractors are still waiting “longer than ever” for a permit in the meantime. National Home sales fell to a 13-year low in October and November sales rose slightly above October’s low due to lower mortgage rates. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes have seized up the resale housing market and negatively impacted related businesses like furniture and home improvement stores. The furniture industry and home improvement sector have experienced four straight quarters of falling sales resulting in fewer jobs. Employment related to real estate has stagnated and some real estate agents are reconsidering their career path, particularly after the court verdict that may impact the way clients pay Buyer’s Agents. Economists think mortgage rates will have to drop at least an additional percentage before more sellers become willing to trade their currently low mortgage rates for a new home with a higher rate. Some good news came in the form of growing new home construction and a rise in building permits. The Hawaii Tourism Authority (HTA) reported 731,233 visitors arrived in Hawaii this past November, essentially the same number arriving the November prior. The number is 9.6% lower than the arrivals in November 2019, just prior to the pandemic. International visitors, including Japan, continue to significantly lag the pre-pandemic numbers. In an ironic development, the six-month old panel established by Governor Josh Green to accelerate affordable housing development, approved a school impact fee waiver for a developer to convert a commercial property into a 52-unit apartment building. The waiver does not have any impact on needed building permits. Green’s emergency proclamation was issued with the goal of building 50,000 housing units statewide, but only 1,300 more affordable rental units are in the pipeline. The Department of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR) fined a Sunset Beach homeowner for illegally pouring concrete on the beach to shore up his eroding property. Desperate homeowners have littered the surrounding coastline with boulders, sandbags, and black tarps as the state struggles to enforce laws preventing shoreline hardening that leads to accelerated beach loss. Pictures Soaring hurricane insurance rates are causing some condominium complexes to secure coverage that does not completely cover replacement costs. The rising costs are occurring despite Hawaii not experiencing a direct hit in 31 years because of the global nature of the reinsurance market. An association’s decision to reduce insurance coverage can make it difficult for home buyers to obtain mortgages and pay higher rates. A local insurance expert estimates almost four hundred condo complexes do not have full coverage including luxury buildings in Kakaako. Joint Task Force Red Hill (JTFRH) announced it finished the gravity draining portion of the defueling operation of the Navy’s underground fuel tank facility on December 15 th , 2023, removing almost 150 million gallons of fuel from the site. The last tanker of fuel departed on December 20 th for the Philippines, one of several U.S. sites in the Pacific chosen to receive the drained fuel. Workers must pump about 60,000 gallons of remaining fuel and remove about 30,000 gallons of “sludge.” JTFRH scheduled the removal of the remaining fuel by the end of January, six months earlier than planned. JTF-Red Hill Commander Provides Gravity Defueling Update A jury will decide the merits of a dispute between developer Howard Hughes Corp, developer of Ward Village in Kakaako and the Honolulu Authority for Rapid Transportation (HART) over the cost of the land HART seeks to build the rail project’s Kakaako station. The estimated price tag is $200 million, and HART has already spent $23.3 million in legal fees as of 2021. Howard Hughes Corp. disagrees with HART about receiving “special benefits” and HART using the “special benefits” to calculate the amount paid for the land. HART’s “expert appraiser” valued the land HART wants to take from Howard Hughes Corp. at $14 million. There is no current plan to build the Kakaako station at the heart of the dispute after Mayor Blangiardi postponed the construction of the final 1.25 miles of the line because of cost overruns. The U.S. Army agreed to lease the state Department of Transportation at Kawaihapai Airfield, previously known as Dillingham Airfield on the North Shore, paving the way for continued commercial activity by local businesses. State has less than 30 days to reach deal with military on Dillingham Airfield Heavy rains on December 20 th caused a mudslide on the Pali Highway, closing the Honolulu-bound lanes through the busy holiday weekend. Heavy rainfall has often resulted in mudslides closing the Pali. Multiple landslides in February of 2019 caused the state to declare the Pali Highway a natural disaster area. State construction crews spent months reinforcing the hillside above the Pali Highway and extending the tunnel to protect cars from falling debris. Pali Hwy closed through weekend as crews clear landslide Contractors removed and packed up the Caltech Submillimeter Observatory telescope on Mauna Kea for shipment for Chile in December, the first of five telescopes scientists must decommission on the Mauna Kea summit to make room for the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT). TMT construction remains in limbo as the National Science Foundation completes more environmental studies and the new Mauna Kea Summit Oversight Authority takes over management of the summit. Caltech Submillimeter Observatory Telescope Removal The University of Hawaii’s (UH) new Reserve Officer Training Corps (ROTC) program commissioned its first Ensign on the deck of the Battleship, USS Missouri in December. The newly commissioned officer will serve on the USS Shiloh, based in Pearl Harbor, after completing the three-month Basic Division Officer Course. Tim graduated from Tulane University back in 1989 on a ROTC scholarship and served on the USS Cavalla, a fast-attack submarine based out of Pearl Harbor. A recently released study by an Arizona State University student and former Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology researcher reports fishing of herbivore species to less than 80% of the reef’s unfished density results in lower coral reef health due to the buildup of algae, the fish’s food. The state Department of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR) is considering additional reef fishing restrictions to prevent the overfishing of Hawaii’s coral reef systems. DLNR deployed its one millionth hatchery grown sea urchin in Kaneohe Bay to control two species of invasive seaweed that can suffocate coral reef patches in the bay. Once a month, a team collects twenty-five of the mini “seaweed mowers” and induces them to spawn resulting in larvae 24 hours later. Researchers siphon the swimming larvae off the top and place them in larvae rearing tanks to protect the delicate animals during development. After 28 days, the team grows a biofilm on clear corrugated roofing material that the larvae attach to and start to look like little urchins called spat. Three weeks later, researchers move the spat to grow-out tanks when they are the size of a pencil eraser and then deployed to the bay once they reach the size of a dime. Sea Life Park Hawaii kicked off “The Year of the Honu,” commemorating 50 years of its Honu Conservation program. The conservation program has released over 17,000 turtle hatchlings into the wild over its 50 years in operation. Sea Life Park Events The Lahaina wildfire destroyed Kohala Brewery and its owners rebuilding plan involves brewing their recipes at Kona Brewing Company. The arrangement allows Kohala Brewery to continue shipping beer to customers and take advantage of Kona Brewing Company’s state-of-the-art facility that allows for more tighter quality control and consistency. The second phase of Kohala’s recovery includes rebuilding the taproom and retail business. Oahu craft beer afficionados have a new option available, Howzit Brewing. The Kakaako brewery recently opened a brewery and tasting room in Ward Village. The owner was born on Oahu, learned his trade in the Pacific Northwest craft beer scene, and returned to Oahu to start his own enterprise. December provided a reminder of the danger involved with hiking some of Oahu’s trails. Fortunately, the hiker did not die from the fall. Rescuers found the hiker after a three-day search 1,000 feet below the Pali Notches Trail. The hiker suffered a fractured cheekbone, broken wrist, and several puncture wounds. Five units of about thirteen experienced hikers participated in the search to find the hiker. ‘It’s a miracle’: Hiker who fell 1,000 feet on Oahu trail, was missing for days thanks his rescue.  Take a look at our Another Day in Paradise's Video Another Day in Paradise: Waterfalls
By Tim Kelley 08 Dec, 2023
Stott Real Estate, Inc.
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