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January 2023 Email Update

Tim Kelley • Sep 05, 2023

The December median sales price for single-family homes was $1,049,500 (0.5% lower than December 2021) and for condos was $502,500 (3.6% higher than December 2021).  Demand continues to remain drastically lower than 2021 numbers with closed sales dropping 46.6% lower for single-family homes and 39.3% lower for condos and pending sales dropping 47.3% lower for single-family homes and 45.2% lower for condos.  The supply of single-family homes almost doubled, and the supply of condos rose 23.7%.  There is currently 2.1 months of single-family homes inventory and 2.2 months of condo inventory.


You can review more detailed current and past real estate market data on our website using the link below.


Monthly StatisticsSteep property tax assessments are causing some Oahu property owners to question the values despite evidence that the buoyant real estate market has made their homes that much more valuable.  Tim fielded at least five calls from clients who wanted to protest the values but could not because the data failed to support their arguments.  Tracey recently spoke with an owner of a leasehold condo whose assessed value rose from $605,600 to $808,600 this past year.  Tracey looked at last year’s sales and told the owner that the assessment was below the 10% threshold to protest the value.  Tracey further advised the owner that her assessed value was approaching $1,000,000 where the tax rate for “Residential A” property jumps from 0.35% for every dollar to 0.45% up to $999,999 and 1.05% for every dollar at $1 million and above.  The letters to the editor at the Honolulu Star Advertiser have been filled with complaints about the assessments.  Mayor Rick Blangiardi pointed the finger at rich mainlanders arriving with boatloads of cash driving up prices and briefly mentioned the lack of housing inventory.  It apparently does not matter that study after study points to the red tape coming from state and county government contributing most to this “crisis.”


A recent Wall Street Journal article predicted more difficulty in the residential housing market for several reasons on both the sales and rental sides of the market.  Mr. Timiraos, the author, argues that the COVID-19 pandemic pulled forward the U.S. household formation growth percentages when more people wanted to live without roommates and more knowledge workers bought homes with room for home offices.  Timiraos estimates that normal household growth would have been half of the rate over the past 30 months if the pandemic had not occurred.  The housing market will face significant headwinds as a result of people seeking roommates to help pay for soaring rents coupled with the Federal Reserve’s rapid interest rate increases at the end of last year.  Mortgage rates have increased from about 4% in March to 6.3% at the end of December after peaking about 7% in October.  Fannie Mae economists predict that 2023 existing home sales will be below the average yearly home sales during the real estate bust from 2006 to 2011.  The Federal Reserve has raised rates seven times to a target range of 4.25% to 4.5% and economists predict further rate hikes in 2023.

Mayor Rick Blangiardi plans to ask the Honolulu City Council for an additional $33 million in federal funding for additional rent and utility relief as families continue to struggle with higher housing costs and inflation.  Blangiardi’s 2023 approach to the lack of affordable housing is heavy on giving money away and light on Oahu’s major driver in the lack of housing and bureaucratic red tape.  While he tries to focus on streamlining the Department of Planning and Permitting’s (DPP) operations, he fails to push for eliminating restrictive zoning and permitting procedures that hinder housing development.


Hawaii celebrated the first-born babies of the year and logged another year of people leaving the islands.  7,000 more Hawaii residents left to seek better opportunities and live in areas with a lower cost of living from July 2021 to July 2022.

The Marine Corps will station 15 new refueling aircraft and six MQ-9 Reaper drones in Kaneohe by August 2026.  The Marines are in the middle of structural changes aimed at island and coastal warfare in the Pacific Theatre.  The additional aircraft will require the demolition of a hanger built in 1941 and construction of a new hanger required to service the new aircraft.  The drones are designed to be quiet and stealthy and their operations should not impact the surrounding neighborhoods.

MQ-9 REAPER: The Most Dangerous Military Drone on EarthCongress appropriated and additional $1 billion to shut down the Navy’s Red Hill Fueling Station adding to the $1.1 billion already allocated to the project.  No detailed plan or breakdown was available to explain the need for spending $2.2 billion to complete the project in typical federal fashion.


Governor Josh Green announced he will take the lead on eliminating the state’s dysfunctional building regulations that prohibit affordable housing construction.  Unfortunately, he did not address the state’s role in hindering housing construction in general, the source of the lack of supply resulting in unaffordable rents and prices.  Instead, he has invited the legislature to spend more taxpayer money to build the stock of affordable housing.


Green has reversed David Ige’s decision and restarted the public-private development of the New Aloha Stadium.  He would also like to shorten the timeline of the new multi-purpose stadium surrounded by mixed-use real estate development by a year.  Green would like the stadium ready before the estimated 2027 completion date.  Since Hawaii has recently shown it is unable to complete large projects on time and within a budget, the public-private partnership makes sense.  About 70 acres of the 98-acre project would be used for housing, hotels, offices, and retail spaces.  The state legislature set aside $350 million for the project via a more traditional state-built contract.

Aloha Stadium: A Lesson in Stadium DesignThe Department of Hawaiian Home Lands (DHHL) has finalized a $600 million project to build 177 apartments and develop 2,727 lots.  The plan has been submitted to the state legislature and asked for six bills to eliminate regulations impeding DHHL’s ability to complete the project in three years as required by last year’s law.  The plan allocates $540 million to develop the lots and $60 million to build 177 rental apartments.


Waimanalo neighbors have pushed back against DPP’s approval to expand President Obama’s seawall to support the development of an oceanfront compound consisting of three houses and a pool.  As part of the granting an exception to existing environmental laws, the Obamas’ friend and developer, Marty Nesbitt, was to replenish the sand in front of neighboring homes.  Neighbors have been scrambling to install sand-filled bags dubbed burritos to protect their own lots creating more beach erosion in Waimanalo.  Waimanalo’s Kaiona Beach Park’s erosion has exposed large drainage pipes where local families gather and play.  Nesbitt argues he should be able to continue building since he has met the “spirit of the agreement” even though neighbors disagree.


A bill introduced by Honolulu City Council member Andrea Tupola would refund permitting fees due to permitting delays at DPP.  Building permits are no longer valid after a year and DPP does not notify the applicants that they must pay a new fee to go to the back of the line.  DPP currently has 6,000 backlogged permits and three quarters of those permits are residential projects.  Many involve small projects like installing solar panels or building a fence.  Even Governor David Ige has been waiting several months for a permit to move an interior wall one foot to support his home renovation.  Hopefully Governor Josh Green is paying attention.

Failure to maintain Oahu’s fleet has resulted in 84 of the 207 Handi-vans being placed out of service.  The Handi-van service, designated for transporting disabled and blind people, currently has a 36% on-time record and riders are often left waiting at desigated areas for hours waiting on their rides resulting in missed appointments.  Rides have been cancelled with riders dropped off at unusual locations with no warning.  The call centers fail to answer the phones for stranded riders desperate to be picked up.  17% of callers have abandoned their calls due being on hold for hours.  The Department of Transportation Services has failed to replace about 40 vans per year and failed to properly maintain the remaining vans in service resulting in increased breakdowns.  The vans last about 6 to 7 years on average.

The Mauna Loa eruption that started on November 27th is no longer considered a threat to the highway that crosses the Big Island stopping 1.9 miles from the road.  The last fissure has stopped feeding the 12-mile-long lava flow.  While the current lava flow is considered over, the eruption was not yet considered dormant and could restart at any time and in any direction.  Scientists at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory later announced that the eruption ended on December 13th.  Kilauea started erupting again in the Halemaumau crater on January 4th.


See Mauna Loa Spew Fountains Of LavaThe New Year brought more firework related injuries and more calls from first responders to tighten enforcement.  The 37% drop in permits failed to predict the increased aerial pyrotechnic activity on Oahu and corresponding increase in firework related injuries requiring hospitalization.  The Honolulu Advertiser placed a front-page photo of smoke over Honolulu Harbor reminding Tim and Tracey of the New Year’s Eve nights driving home from Tracey’s parents’ house at 10 miles-per-hour due to the smoke that limited visibility to a few feet.  The smoke caused people with difficulty breathing to call for help and contributed to 11 traffic accidents.  It appears Honolulu revelers have fully emerged from their pandemic slumber. 


A Hawaiian airlines flight from Phoenix to Honolulu highlighted the wisdom in wearing seatbelts even when the seatbelt sign has turned off.  Unexpected turbulence landed 20 passengers in the hospital, 11 seriously injured during the “mass casualty emergency.”  The Honolulu Star Advertiser provided photos of the cabin showing holes in the ceiling panels caused by passengers slamming into the ceiling when the plane dipped suddenly.  Fortunately, no one was killed.  Six-time Grammy award nominee, Amy Hanaiali’i performed on Tim and Tracey’s Hawaiian Airlines flight from Kauai while waiting three hours on the tarmac on the same day to get home.  She was so gracious to help pass the time and it was a treat for all.


A controversial federal fishing permit for cultural practices was approved for the national conservatory monument, Papahanaumokuakea.  The permit allows native Hawaiian people to conduct cultural fishing operations in the monument and recoup up to $15,000 in costs through “customary exchange,” or selling their fish.  Opponents question the permits since native Hawaiians did not fish in the areas prior to the monument’s establishment.  Cultural practices included fishing from the shore, not 130 miles from Kauai and 280 miles from Oahu.  The chair of the monument’s Reserve Advisory Council argued, “why are you going to go up there when you have fish available right off your shoreline?”  The council does not expect NOAA to accept the recommendation since the goals are inconsistent with the goals of the sanctuary.

Hawaii researchers tagged a nine-foot tiger shark that sent back thousands of reports on the shark’s location and ocean temperatures.  The shark swam in depths of more than 1,600 feet and in waters ranging from 50 to 80 degrees Fahrenheit.  The trial provides proof that data can be collected below the surface where satellites are unable to measure.  Researchers hope the additional data will better guide conservation efforts.


A study published December 22nd provides strong evidence the magma chambers of Mauna Loa and Kilauea are connected deep underground.  The theory explains why both Mauna Loa and Kilauea eruptions ended about the same time.  The pancake like structures at depths of 10 to 100 kilometers, called sills, channel magma both laterally and upward supplying the two volcanic chambers.



The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service announced that 275,000 acres on Kauai, Maui, and the Big Island will be designated critical habitat for the iiwi, the most threatened of the Hawaii honeycreepers.  An estimated 600,000 of the red birds with curved beaks and black wings live on the Big Island (90%), Maui (9%), and Kauai (1%).  The designation of land is in response to a lawsuit by the Center of Biological Diversity.


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By Tim Kelley 09 Jan, 2024
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By Tim Kelley 09 Jan, 2024
The December median price for single-family homes was $996,500 (5.1% lower than December 2022) and for condos was $510,000 (1.5% higher than December 2022). Demand continues to fall with 9.9% fewer single-family homes and 24.4% fewer condos sold this December compared to the same month last year. Single-family home sales have fallen twenty-three consecutive months and condo sales have dropped for nineteen straight months. The number of available properties, both single-family homes and condos, appears to be stabilizing yet scarce. There are still only 2.8 months of single-family home and 3.2 months of condo inventory. You can review more detailed current and past real estate market data on our website using the link below. Monthly Statistics October 2023 Market Update A U.S. Court District judge issued a summary judgement granting the Hawaii Legal Short-Term Rental Alliance (HILSTRA) a permanent injunction against a provision of Ordinance 22-7 prohibiting home rental periods between thirty and 89 days for property owners who were following the 30-day minimum rental period before the laws effective date of October 23 rd , 2022. HILSTRA successfully argued that the new law caused immediate and devastating economic harm to landlords and operators legally renting their properties. The permanent injunction will make the thirty to 89-day ban on newer rental properties difficult to enforce. The city has not decided if it will appeal the decision. An article by Civil Beat summarized decades of action or lack of action resulting in the years-long slog many homeowners and contractors experience at the Department of Planning and Permitting (DPP) waiting on permit approval. Back in the 1970’s, a contractor could obtain a building permit the same day by walking plans to each DPP department for signatures and being able to fix issues on the spot when an experienced examiner pointed them out. A loss of institutional knowledge when experienced examiners retired, increased regulation, a failure to update technology, and the removal of face-to-face interaction has resulted in November 2022 permit times of 330 days on average for a residential permit and 420 days on average for a commercial permit. DPP reported an average of a six-month delay in October, easy solar power permits have skewed the numbers since building permits still languish. DPP’s largest problem is hiring since people with an architecture or engineering background can make $20,000 to $50,000 more in the private sector and “don’t get yelled at as much.” Additionally, the Honolulu City Council issued a rash of new regulations from 2016 through 2020 requiring DPP to establish a new department and additional review step. DPP’s director has received additional funding to hire people to reduce the backlog, however, contractors are still waiting “longer than ever” for a permit in the meantime. National Home sales fell to a 13-year low in October and November sales rose slightly above October’s low due to lower mortgage rates. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes have seized up the resale housing market and negatively impacted related businesses like furniture and home improvement stores. The furniture industry and home improvement sector have experienced four straight quarters of falling sales resulting in fewer jobs. Employment related to real estate has stagnated and some real estate agents are reconsidering their career path, particularly after the court verdict that may impact the way clients pay Buyer’s Agents. Economists think mortgage rates will have to drop at least an additional percentage before more sellers become willing to trade their currently low mortgage rates for a new home with a higher rate. Some good news came in the form of growing new home construction and a rise in building permits. The Hawaii Tourism Authority (HTA) reported 731,233 visitors arrived in Hawaii this past November, essentially the same number arriving the November prior. The number is 9.6% lower than the arrivals in November 2019, just prior to the pandemic. International visitors, including Japan, continue to significantly lag the pre-pandemic numbers. In an ironic development, the six-month old panel established by Governor Josh Green to accelerate affordable housing development, approved a school impact fee waiver for a developer to convert a commercial property into a 52-unit apartment building. The waiver does not have any impact on needed building permits. Green’s emergency proclamation was issued with the goal of building 50,000 housing units statewide, but only 1,300 more affordable rental units are in the pipeline. The Department of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR) fined a Sunset Beach homeowner for illegally pouring concrete on the beach to shore up his eroding property. Desperate homeowners have littered the surrounding coastline with boulders, sandbags, and black tarps as the state struggles to enforce laws preventing shoreline hardening that leads to accelerated beach loss. Pictures Soaring hurricane insurance rates are causing some condominium complexes to secure coverage that does not completely cover replacement costs. The rising costs are occurring despite Hawaii not experiencing a direct hit in 31 years because of the global nature of the reinsurance market. An association’s decision to reduce insurance coverage can make it difficult for home buyers to obtain mortgages and pay higher rates. A local insurance expert estimates almost four hundred condo complexes do not have full coverage including luxury buildings in Kakaako. Joint Task Force Red Hill (JTFRH) announced it finished the gravity draining portion of the defueling operation of the Navy’s underground fuel tank facility on December 15 th , 2023, removing almost 150 million gallons of fuel from the site. The last tanker of fuel departed on December 20 th for the Philippines, one of several U.S. sites in the Pacific chosen to receive the drained fuel. Workers must pump about 60,000 gallons of remaining fuel and remove about 30,000 gallons of “sludge.” JTFRH scheduled the removal of the remaining fuel by the end of January, six months earlier than planned. JTF-Red Hill Commander Provides Gravity Defueling Update A jury will decide the merits of a dispute between developer Howard Hughes Corp, developer of Ward Village in Kakaako and the Honolulu Authority for Rapid Transportation (HART) over the cost of the land HART seeks to build the rail project’s Kakaako station. The estimated price tag is $200 million, and HART has already spent $23.3 million in legal fees as of 2021. Howard Hughes Corp. disagrees with HART about receiving “special benefits” and HART using the “special benefits” to calculate the amount paid for the land. HART’s “expert appraiser” valued the land HART wants to take from Howard Hughes Corp. at $14 million. There is no current plan to build the Kakaako station at the heart of the dispute after Mayor Blangiardi postponed the construction of the final 1.25 miles of the line because of cost overruns. The U.S. Army agreed to lease the state Department of Transportation at Kawaihapai Airfield, previously known as Dillingham Airfield on the North Shore, paving the way for continued commercial activity by local businesses. State has less than 30 days to reach deal with military on Dillingham Airfield Heavy rains on December 20 th caused a mudslide on the Pali Highway, closing the Honolulu-bound lanes through the busy holiday weekend. Heavy rainfall has often resulted in mudslides closing the Pali. Multiple landslides in February of 2019 caused the state to declare the Pali Highway a natural disaster area. State construction crews spent months reinforcing the hillside above the Pali Highway and extending the tunnel to protect cars from falling debris. Pali Hwy closed through weekend as crews clear landslide Contractors removed and packed up the Caltech Submillimeter Observatory telescope on Mauna Kea for shipment for Chile in December, the first of five telescopes scientists must decommission on the Mauna Kea summit to make room for the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT). TMT construction remains in limbo as the National Science Foundation completes more environmental studies and the new Mauna Kea Summit Oversight Authority takes over management of the summit. Caltech Submillimeter Observatory Telescope Removal The University of Hawaii’s (UH) new Reserve Officer Training Corps (ROTC) program commissioned its first Ensign on the deck of the Battleship, USS Missouri in December. The newly commissioned officer will serve on the USS Shiloh, based in Pearl Harbor, after completing the three-month Basic Division Officer Course. Tim graduated from Tulane University back in 1989 on a ROTC scholarship and served on the USS Cavalla, a fast-attack submarine based out of Pearl Harbor. A recently released study by an Arizona State University student and former Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology researcher reports fishing of herbivore species to less than 80% of the reef’s unfished density results in lower coral reef health due to the buildup of algae, the fish’s food. The state Department of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR) is considering additional reef fishing restrictions to prevent the overfishing of Hawaii’s coral reef systems. DLNR deployed its one millionth hatchery grown sea urchin in Kaneohe Bay to control two species of invasive seaweed that can suffocate coral reef patches in the bay. Once a month, a team collects twenty-five of the mini “seaweed mowers” and induces them to spawn resulting in larvae 24 hours later. Researchers siphon the swimming larvae off the top and place them in larvae rearing tanks to protect the delicate animals during development. After 28 days, the team grows a biofilm on clear corrugated roofing material that the larvae attach to and start to look like little urchins called spat. Three weeks later, researchers move the spat to grow-out tanks when they are the size of a pencil eraser and then deployed to the bay once they reach the size of a dime. Sea Life Park Hawaii kicked off “The Year of the Honu,” commemorating 50 years of its Honu Conservation program. The conservation program has released over 17,000 turtle hatchlings into the wild over its 50 years in operation. Sea Life Park Events The Lahaina wildfire destroyed Kohala Brewery and its owners rebuilding plan involves brewing their recipes at Kona Brewing Company. The arrangement allows Kohala Brewery to continue shipping beer to customers and take advantage of Kona Brewing Company’s state-of-the-art facility that allows for more tighter quality control and consistency. The second phase of Kohala’s recovery includes rebuilding the taproom and retail business. Oahu craft beer afficionados have a new option available, Howzit Brewing. The Kakaako brewery recently opened a brewery and tasting room in Ward Village. The owner was born on Oahu, learned his trade in the Pacific Northwest craft beer scene, and returned to Oahu to start his own enterprise. December provided a reminder of the danger involved with hiking some of Oahu’s trails. Fortunately, the hiker did not die from the fall. Rescuers found the hiker after a three-day search 1,000 feet below the Pali Notches Trail. The hiker suffered a fractured cheekbone, broken wrist, and several puncture wounds. Five units of about thirteen experienced hikers participated in the search to find the hiker. ‘It’s a miracle’: Hiker who fell 1,000 feet on Oahu trail, was missing for days thanks his rescue.  Take a look at our Another Day in Paradise's Video Another Day in Paradise: Waterfalls
By Tim Kelley 08 Dec, 2023
Stott Real Estate, Inc.
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