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November 2022 Email Update

Tim Kelley • Sep 05, 2023

Demand is decelerating rapidly with single-family home sales dropping to 222 (41.7% lower than October 2021) and condo sales dropping to 435 (28.8% lower than October 2021).  The October median sales price for single-family homes was $1,050,000 (5.0% higher than October 2021) and for condos was $520,000 (4.0% higher than October 2021).  The median sales price has been essentially flat for the past 14 months.  Motivated buyers who can afford to pay the higher mortgage rates are starting to see a larger selection of property with supply climbing to 2.1 months or inventory for both single-family homes and condos.


You can review more detailed current and past real estate market data on our website using the link below.


Monthly StatisticsYou may also listen to our Monthly Newsletter from our recently created podcast, Real Estate Tips of the Day & Quarterly Real Estate Articles by clicking the link below:Stott Real Estate, Inc. PodcastWhile it is too late to receive relief from residential A property tax rates, owner occupants can reduce their tax bills in February 2024 by filing for their home exemption.  The City and County of Honolulu Residential property tax rate is $3.50 for every $1,000 in value or 0.35%.  The property tax rate for residential A property is 0.45% for property valued up to $1 million and 1.05% for every dollar above $1 million.  The filing deadline is September 10th.  Visit the link below and fill out and mail the form before other priorities distract you.


CLAIM FOR HOME EXEMPTION FORMA federal judge has halted the City and County of Honolulu’s 90-day short-term rental law until April 26, 2023, in response to the Hawaii Legal Short-Term Rental Alliance’s lawsuit declaring the new law unconstitutional.  The lawsuit alleges that the new law interferes with the owners’ vested rights to own and rent property and violates state zoning law. The plaintiffs argue the bill caused immediate and devastating financial harm for property owners who purchased investment property and legally rented their property for 30 to 89 days.  The city started enforcing parts of the new law on October 24th that were not subject to the federal judge’s ruling.  Despite being understaffed by 80 people, the mayor is dedicating 7 full-time inspectors to his endeavor.  Those seven full-time inspectors might be better utilized helping work through the backlog of 8,000 permits.  The Honolulu Board of Realtors has provided guidance to landlords regarding the judge’s ruling:
 

·      90-day or longer leases are exempt.
·      Month-to-month leases, written or unwritten, are exempt since their tenancies are essentially indefinite per the state of Hawaii’s landlord tenant code.
·      Purchase leases like the early occupancy agreement for buyers and post occupancy agreements for sellers are exempt.

 
Changes to the City of Honolulu’s short-term rental program requirements as late as October 21st have frustrated legal short-term rental operators and bogged down the city’s online registration program.  The rushed website started accepting applications only one day prior to the new law’s effective date.  Per standard operating procedure, the DPP hotline was unable to handle the sixty phone calls from frustrated owners who were seeking answers and help with the cumbersome prospect.  DPP plans on enforcing fines on owners trying to follow the new law even though they are causing the delays claiming, “their hands are tied.”  A major hurdle is showing proof of liability insurance even though the short-term rental platforms like Airbnb and VRBO provide coverage that meets the requirements.  Investors who would like to continue renting short-term may register at the site below:


Short-Term Rentals


An October 24th front-page article in the Honolulu Star-Advertiser paints a bleak picture due to the new short-term rental law effective October 24th.  A couple who cleans Waikiki vacation rentals are holding their breath for fear of further economic hardship.  They used to mainly clean single-family homes until the 2019 passage of Ordinance 19-8.  Paul Brewbaker, a leading economist in Hawaii, states, “short-term rentals were a growing part of Oahu’s only factory.  If tourism production slumps, Oahu’s future looks a lot like Detroit in the 1970s after the closure of auto plants.  I don’t know how it isn’t obvious that some people will be way worse off.  A further decline could lead to more people leaving Oahu.  When Detroit’s economy shrank, people left.”


It is disheartening for Hawaii residents when the state announces “affordable rents” as part of a $150 million to subsidize middle income rental properties.  The state considers $2,287 affordable for a studio, $2,450 affordable for a one-bedroom, $2,940 affordable for a two-bedroom, and $3,396 affordable for a three-bedroom rental.  The state two-bedroom rents are $440 higher than the monthly rents for a well-apportioned two-bedroom condo in Moiliili with central air-conditioning and two assigned parking spaces.


A bill to provide relief for older buildings that must comply with the automated sprinkler requirements has stalled with the city council resulting in great uncertainty as associations struggle to comply with the requirements.  The current law allows associations to do the following:

“13.3.2.26.2.3 Notwithstanding any other provision of this paragraph (15), the association of apartment owners of a condominium or the cooperative housing corporation of an existing high-rise  residential building 10 floors or higher may opt out of the automatic fire sprinkler system requirement; provided that, a majority of unit owners of a condominium or a majority of shareholders of a cooperative housing corporation vote to opt out of the requirement within three years of the completion of the building fire and life safety evaluation at a regularly scheduled or special meeting of the owners or shareholders, convened and noticed in accordance with the condominium’s or cooperative housing corporation’s by-laws; and provided further, that the building receives a passing score on the building fire and life safety evaluation through the implementation of alternative fire prevention and fire safety systems. An association of apartment owners of a condominium or a cooperative housing corporation that has opted out of the automatic fire sprinkler system requirement shall provide verifiable, public disclosure of its action to all current and future owners shareholders and residents. Verifiable public disclosure shall include signs posted in the building’s public notification areas and real estate sales disclosures as may be required by Hawaii real estate industry practices.”


A Wall-Street Journal article on 11/1/2022 serves as a warning to investors looking to diversify their portfolio through private real estate funds versus public real estate funds.  Private real estate investment trusts (REITs) are offered by wall-street firms like Blackrock who set valuations monthly based on the funds underlying cash flow from apartment buildings and commercial buildings.  Public REITs trade on the stock market and are updated every time a share is bought and sold.  Private REITs have appreciated about 10% while public REITs have fallen 26% this year prompting some financial advisors to advise selling private REITs before the correction occurs.  A popular 1031 Exchange has been to sell an investment property and then purchase shares in a Delaware trust that invests in commercial real estate.   While it provides strong cash flow in a low interest rate environment, these trusts can struggle when interest rates rise.  Investors in 2008 and 2009 had their equity wiped out when these types of vehicles underlying real estate values prevented them from refinancing, resulting in a wave of foreclosures.


Tim and Tracey have been inundated by phone calls from investors that would like to buy their investment properties.  These investors start calling the home number at 4:00 am and the phone rings throughout the morning.  Tim listed his home phone number and cell phone numbers on the Do Not Call Registry and have been rewarded with a bit more silence.  If you are receiving an unacceptable number of sales calls, you may register your number at the following site:


NATIONAL DO NOT CALL REGISTRY


The state board approved a variance for a 1005-unit Moiliili tower that will provide over 50% of the units to low-income families.  DPP has first right of refusal if a affordable-unit condo is sold within the first ten years according to the agreement.


A retired DPP plans examiner pleaded guilty to accepting $100,000 in bribes to pre-screen plans and expedite permit approvals.  The examiner set up a business to help accept bribes and told the FBI that the $100,000 was a loan from an architect.  The examiner had retired in 2017 and was indicted March 17, 2021.  The architect pleaded guilty on April 7, 2021, for paying more than $89,000 in bribes.  The architect will be sentenced on December 1st and the examiner will be sentenced on March 9, 2023. 

The Board of Water Supply has started looking into methods to remove fuel contamination from wells to provide safe drinking water should the pollution spread from the Red Hill Shaft.  Treatment technologies include gravity separation, biologically active filtration, ozonation, ultraviolet oxidation, granulation activated carbon, dissolved air floatation, and coagulation and flocculation.  One method may not be sufficient to resolve the contamination alone since multiple types of fuel have leaked since the fuel tanks were built.  The treatment study is scheduled for a 2023 completion.


The Navy’s water woes continue as a water main break on a 36-inch line serving 90,000 residents forced service-members to boil their water to make it safe to drink.  The Navy did not have a repair timeline in place claiming the repair is “complicated.”  On October 17th, a fourth water main broke and the Navy announced that it would delay defueling the Red Hill fuel tanks as a result.  The Navy’s struggles to maintain its drinking water infrastructure begs for a Board of Water Supply management takeover.

The military started unpacking 1 million gallons of fuel from pipelines in preparation of draining the Red Hill Fuel Tanks on October 25th, two weeks after water main breaks forced 90,000 families to boil tap water.  The procedure allows the military to repair, modify, and enhance the pipelines to remove the fuel as safely as possible.  The procedure took about six days even though fuel movement took about 12 hours to complete.  The remainder of the time involved putting safety measures in place.  The 3.5-mile pipeline is gravity driven and engineers will use pumps to remove any residual fuel from the pipes.  The tanks currently hold 104 million gallons of fuel and the Navy plans on emptying the tanks by June 2024.  The Navy plans on closing the facility in 2027 after it cleans the sludge and other waste left in the tanks and pipelines after the fuel is drained and cleaning up the petroleum contamination in the soil and groundwater.  The Navy hopes to consult with the community for alternatives to the site for nonfuel purposes such as a hydroelectric plant.


Mauna Loa is showing signs of a new eruption after 38 years of quiet.  Elevated seismic activity and ground swelling suggest that magma may be filling the mountain.  The Hawaiian Volcano Observatory started issuing daily updates on 10/6/2022.  40-50 small earthquakes have been shaking the mountain daily at a rate of two to three per hour.  The Hawaii County of Civil Defense has been helping the state develop an evacuation plan should the mountain erupt.  The lava is fast moving, and it only took three hours to reach the Kona coast in 1950.  The Hawaii Volcanoes National Parks has closed the summit since evacuations are very difficult at an elevation of 14,000 feet.  Residents around the volcano have been encouraged to pack a “go” bag in case of an eruption.  Here is a link to the national park services site for the most recent updates.

National Park Service | Hawai'i VolcanoesHawaii is experimenting with a new asphalt that includes recycled plastic from consumers and recovered from the ocean.  The state will pave a stretch of Fort Weaver Road in Ewa Beach from Kilaha Street to Puuloa Beach Park.  The mixture looks like asphalt, smells like asphalt, and compacts like asphalt.  The state will monitor the wear performance of the pavement over the next 18 months and make sure there is no escaping plastic.  The state is also experimenting with a mixture of 50% recycled asphalt from old roads to reduce the amount of new asphalt that must be created.


Haseko has announced the planned opening of a 52-acre recreational lagoon and commercial development in 2023 that includes three wave pools, restaurants, a coffee shop, bar, boardwalk, and dock.  Lagoon tours in 12-person electric boats are planned.  The facility plans on attracting a larger percentage of the local population initially.  Haseko anticipates offering surf lessons in the wave pool that creates two- to six-foot breaking but not barreling waves.


A recently completed study by Hawaii scientists documented the benefits of ocean sanctuaries like the Papahanaumokuakea Marine Sanctuary.  The study started in 2016 and documented a 54% increase of yellowfin tuna, a 12% increase of bigeye tuna, and an 8% increase of various reef fish in and near the sanctuary.  The study offers good news to the tuna fishing industry who have resisted creating expansive marine protected areas due to the loss of fishing grounds.  Scientists hope the study will help promote better management of our ocean resources.


Downed seabirds may have a new “Buddy” to help them out in their time of need.  Turtle Bay is testing a program using specially trained dogs to find downed seabirds hidden from their human rescuers.  The dog teams have found 90% of hidden seabird carcasses and conservationists hope that translates to dogs finding live birds before they are hunted by predators.  Here is a link to find help for any distressed sea creature that you come across.


Report a Sighting or Animal in DistressA new study by University of Hawaii found that the diversity of algae living symbiotically with the coral varies significantly from one part of Kaneohe Bay to another.  Algae provide most of the energy coral needs to survive. Researchers collected and logged 600 rice coral colony specimens throughout Kanoehe Bay and found that two types of algae are commonly found in the coral.  Cladocopium is more broadly present and heat resistant Durusdinium is found in coral at shallower depths and provides the coral added resistance to heat stress.  Coral in the extreme North and South of the bay showed lower levels of the heat resistant strains than the rest of the bay since is receives less daily sunlight.


The VinFast Ironman Triathalon Championship returned to Kona for the first time in three years.  The 2020 event was cancelled, and the 2021 Championship was hosted in Utah.  Approximately 30,000 people attended the event this year.


Tracey loves glass balls found on the shores of Oahu.  She just found out about a book titled “Glass Ball Marks,“ which provides information about what the markings on the glass balls signify.  If you have glass balls found on the ocean shores, you may want to take a look at this book.



Georgia may have made headlines earlier this year by supposedly restricting voter access, but Hawaii quietly perfected the art.  Tim did not receive a ballot in the mail like he should, found out that the Kaneohe voter assistance office closed two weeks prior to election day, drove one hour round trip to Honolulu, walked 2,370 steps or 1.2 miles to Honolulu Hale, and waited in line 40 minutes to cast his ballot.  Fortunately, Tim has a tremendous staff who took care of business while Tim made the effort to vote.  Tim likes to vote to often cancel Tracey’s votes, which is their running joke each election year.


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By Tim Kelley 09 Jan, 2024
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By Tim Kelley 09 Jan, 2024
The December median price for single-family homes was $996,500 (5.1% lower than December 2022) and for condos was $510,000 (1.5% higher than December 2022). Demand continues to fall with 9.9% fewer single-family homes and 24.4% fewer condos sold this December compared to the same month last year. Single-family home sales have fallen twenty-three consecutive months and condo sales have dropped for nineteen straight months. The number of available properties, both single-family homes and condos, appears to be stabilizing yet scarce. There are still only 2.8 months of single-family home and 3.2 months of condo inventory. You can review more detailed current and past real estate market data on our website using the link below. Monthly Statistics October 2023 Market Update A U.S. Court District judge issued a summary judgement granting the Hawaii Legal Short-Term Rental Alliance (HILSTRA) a permanent injunction against a provision of Ordinance 22-7 prohibiting home rental periods between thirty and 89 days for property owners who were following the 30-day minimum rental period before the laws effective date of October 23 rd , 2022. HILSTRA successfully argued that the new law caused immediate and devastating economic harm to landlords and operators legally renting their properties. The permanent injunction will make the thirty to 89-day ban on newer rental properties difficult to enforce. The city has not decided if it will appeal the decision. An article by Civil Beat summarized decades of action or lack of action resulting in the years-long slog many homeowners and contractors experience at the Department of Planning and Permitting (DPP) waiting on permit approval. Back in the 1970’s, a contractor could obtain a building permit the same day by walking plans to each DPP department for signatures and being able to fix issues on the spot when an experienced examiner pointed them out. A loss of institutional knowledge when experienced examiners retired, increased regulation, a failure to update technology, and the removal of face-to-face interaction has resulted in November 2022 permit times of 330 days on average for a residential permit and 420 days on average for a commercial permit. DPP reported an average of a six-month delay in October, easy solar power permits have skewed the numbers since building permits still languish. DPP’s largest problem is hiring since people with an architecture or engineering background can make $20,000 to $50,000 more in the private sector and “don’t get yelled at as much.” Additionally, the Honolulu City Council issued a rash of new regulations from 2016 through 2020 requiring DPP to establish a new department and additional review step. DPP’s director has received additional funding to hire people to reduce the backlog, however, contractors are still waiting “longer than ever” for a permit in the meantime. National Home sales fell to a 13-year low in October and November sales rose slightly above October’s low due to lower mortgage rates. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes have seized up the resale housing market and negatively impacted related businesses like furniture and home improvement stores. The furniture industry and home improvement sector have experienced four straight quarters of falling sales resulting in fewer jobs. Employment related to real estate has stagnated and some real estate agents are reconsidering their career path, particularly after the court verdict that may impact the way clients pay Buyer’s Agents. Economists think mortgage rates will have to drop at least an additional percentage before more sellers become willing to trade their currently low mortgage rates for a new home with a higher rate. Some good news came in the form of growing new home construction and a rise in building permits. The Hawaii Tourism Authority (HTA) reported 731,233 visitors arrived in Hawaii this past November, essentially the same number arriving the November prior. The number is 9.6% lower than the arrivals in November 2019, just prior to the pandemic. International visitors, including Japan, continue to significantly lag the pre-pandemic numbers. In an ironic development, the six-month old panel established by Governor Josh Green to accelerate affordable housing development, approved a school impact fee waiver for a developer to convert a commercial property into a 52-unit apartment building. The waiver does not have any impact on needed building permits. Green’s emergency proclamation was issued with the goal of building 50,000 housing units statewide, but only 1,300 more affordable rental units are in the pipeline. The Department of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR) fined a Sunset Beach homeowner for illegally pouring concrete on the beach to shore up his eroding property. Desperate homeowners have littered the surrounding coastline with boulders, sandbags, and black tarps as the state struggles to enforce laws preventing shoreline hardening that leads to accelerated beach loss. Pictures Soaring hurricane insurance rates are causing some condominium complexes to secure coverage that does not completely cover replacement costs. The rising costs are occurring despite Hawaii not experiencing a direct hit in 31 years because of the global nature of the reinsurance market. An association’s decision to reduce insurance coverage can make it difficult for home buyers to obtain mortgages and pay higher rates. A local insurance expert estimates almost four hundred condo complexes do not have full coverage including luxury buildings in Kakaako. Joint Task Force Red Hill (JTFRH) announced it finished the gravity draining portion of the defueling operation of the Navy’s underground fuel tank facility on December 15 th , 2023, removing almost 150 million gallons of fuel from the site. The last tanker of fuel departed on December 20 th for the Philippines, one of several U.S. sites in the Pacific chosen to receive the drained fuel. Workers must pump about 60,000 gallons of remaining fuel and remove about 30,000 gallons of “sludge.” JTFRH scheduled the removal of the remaining fuel by the end of January, six months earlier than planned. JTF-Red Hill Commander Provides Gravity Defueling Update A jury will decide the merits of a dispute between developer Howard Hughes Corp, developer of Ward Village in Kakaako and the Honolulu Authority for Rapid Transportation (HART) over the cost of the land HART seeks to build the rail project’s Kakaako station. The estimated price tag is $200 million, and HART has already spent $23.3 million in legal fees as of 2021. Howard Hughes Corp. disagrees with HART about receiving “special benefits” and HART using the “special benefits” to calculate the amount paid for the land. HART’s “expert appraiser” valued the land HART wants to take from Howard Hughes Corp. at $14 million. There is no current plan to build the Kakaako station at the heart of the dispute after Mayor Blangiardi postponed the construction of the final 1.25 miles of the line because of cost overruns. The U.S. Army agreed to lease the state Department of Transportation at Kawaihapai Airfield, previously known as Dillingham Airfield on the North Shore, paving the way for continued commercial activity by local businesses. State has less than 30 days to reach deal with military on Dillingham Airfield Heavy rains on December 20 th caused a mudslide on the Pali Highway, closing the Honolulu-bound lanes through the busy holiday weekend. Heavy rainfall has often resulted in mudslides closing the Pali. Multiple landslides in February of 2019 caused the state to declare the Pali Highway a natural disaster area. State construction crews spent months reinforcing the hillside above the Pali Highway and extending the tunnel to protect cars from falling debris. Pali Hwy closed through weekend as crews clear landslide Contractors removed and packed up the Caltech Submillimeter Observatory telescope on Mauna Kea for shipment for Chile in December, the first of five telescopes scientists must decommission on the Mauna Kea summit to make room for the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT). TMT construction remains in limbo as the National Science Foundation completes more environmental studies and the new Mauna Kea Summit Oversight Authority takes over management of the summit. Caltech Submillimeter Observatory Telescope Removal The University of Hawaii’s (UH) new Reserve Officer Training Corps (ROTC) program commissioned its first Ensign on the deck of the Battleship, USS Missouri in December. The newly commissioned officer will serve on the USS Shiloh, based in Pearl Harbor, after completing the three-month Basic Division Officer Course. Tim graduated from Tulane University back in 1989 on a ROTC scholarship and served on the USS Cavalla, a fast-attack submarine based out of Pearl Harbor. A recently released study by an Arizona State University student and former Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology researcher reports fishing of herbivore species to less than 80% of the reef’s unfished density results in lower coral reef health due to the buildup of algae, the fish’s food. The state Department of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR) is considering additional reef fishing restrictions to prevent the overfishing of Hawaii’s coral reef systems. DLNR deployed its one millionth hatchery grown sea urchin in Kaneohe Bay to control two species of invasive seaweed that can suffocate coral reef patches in the bay. Once a month, a team collects twenty-five of the mini “seaweed mowers” and induces them to spawn resulting in larvae 24 hours later. Researchers siphon the swimming larvae off the top and place them in larvae rearing tanks to protect the delicate animals during development. After 28 days, the team grows a biofilm on clear corrugated roofing material that the larvae attach to and start to look like little urchins called spat. Three weeks later, researchers move the spat to grow-out tanks when they are the size of a pencil eraser and then deployed to the bay once they reach the size of a dime. Sea Life Park Hawaii kicked off “The Year of the Honu,” commemorating 50 years of its Honu Conservation program. The conservation program has released over 17,000 turtle hatchlings into the wild over its 50 years in operation. Sea Life Park Events The Lahaina wildfire destroyed Kohala Brewery and its owners rebuilding plan involves brewing their recipes at Kona Brewing Company. The arrangement allows Kohala Brewery to continue shipping beer to customers and take advantage of Kona Brewing Company’s state-of-the-art facility that allows for more tighter quality control and consistency. The second phase of Kohala’s recovery includes rebuilding the taproom and retail business. Oahu craft beer afficionados have a new option available, Howzit Brewing. The Kakaako brewery recently opened a brewery and tasting room in Ward Village. The owner was born on Oahu, learned his trade in the Pacific Northwest craft beer scene, and returned to Oahu to start his own enterprise. December provided a reminder of the danger involved with hiking some of Oahu’s trails. Fortunately, the hiker did not die from the fall. Rescuers found the hiker after a three-day search 1,000 feet below the Pali Notches Trail. The hiker suffered a fractured cheekbone, broken wrist, and several puncture wounds. Five units of about thirteen experienced hikers participated in the search to find the hiker. ‘It’s a miracle’: Hiker who fell 1,000 feet on Oahu trail, was missing for days thanks his rescue.  Take a look at our Another Day in Paradise's Video Another Day in Paradise: Waterfalls
By Tim Kelley 08 Dec, 2023
Stott Real Estate, Inc.
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