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February 2023 Email Update

Tim Kelley • Sep 05, 2023

The January median price for single-family homes was $970,000 (7.6% lower than January 2022) and for condos was $495,000 (2.9% lower than January 2022) as demand continues to stagnate.  The median price for single family homes dropped below $1,000,000 for the first time in 18 months and demand for both single-family homes and condos was less than half compared to last year.  New listings have continued to exceed demand and inventory has been creeping up.  There are currently 2.0 months of single-family home inventory and 2.4 months of condo inventory.  Available properties are taking twice as long to sell compared to last year, many skittish buyers are cancelling contracts during the inspection period, and sellers are giving concessions more frequently to close sales.

Rents have stalled as well with affordability driving many renters to team up and become roommates once again.  Stott Property Management, LLC has been forced to lower some asking rents as vacant units sit on the market much longer than previous years.  The nationwide trend impacts Tim and Tracey’s Austin duplex that has been vacant for over a month in Texas despite offering the third lowest asking rent in the area.


You can review more detailed current and past real estate market data on our website using the link below.

Monthly StatisticsHawaii Landlords should continue to pay attention to proposed legislation when deciding whether to sell or continue renting.  The latest gem relates to bed bugs that are notoriously hard to detect and treat.  A new law would make it illegal to rent a property when the landlord “knowingly” has a bed bug problem.  Yes, they are a nuisance, but the state department of health does not see them as a health threat.  Let’s hope this new bill does not become law.
 
The University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization (UHERO) forecasts slow economic growth for 2023 due to central banks aggressively raising interest rates to combat inflation.  UHERO expects a slight uptick in unemployment and Japanese tourism slowly recovering from COVID-19 restrictions and a weak yen.  The housing market will continue to struggle due to high interest rates and high sales prices.  Tenants can expect some relief from rapidly escalating rents in 2023 and 2024.  UHERO does hedge its bets by claiming that uncertainty around their forecasts has increased based on future inflation numbers and resulting interest rates.
 
A 1031 Exchange company forecast the following trends for 2023.  While the article is geared towards commercial real estate, the trends would apply to residential 1031 exchanges as well.
 

·      Sales prices will decrease.
·      Properties will take longer to sell.
·      There will be more all cash 1031 exchanges due to high interest rates suppressing mortgage demand.
·      The market will soften as investors patiently wait to sell until the market recovers.
·      Residential transactions will exceed commercial office activity.
·      Increased purchases of qualifying vacation home rental properties in warmer climates and other rentals geared towards remote work.

 
Governor Josh Green followed in the footsteps of two other Governors, David Ige and Linda Lingle, in issuing an emergency proclamation to address Hawaii homelessness.  The emergency proclamation allows the administration to bypass dozens of state laws to quickly build shelters.  Instead of focusing on repealing the laws that contribute to Hawaii’s growing homelessness problem, activists criticize the governors for exceeding their authority.  Hawaii will continue to struggle with rising homelessness and unaffordable housing until they remove the hurdles to building a sufficient supply of homes.
 
Just another reminder of the state taxes that Hawaii landlords must pay.  Most landlords are aware of general excise tax, and transient accommodation tax (if applicable), yet are unaware of state income tax, particularly when they live in a state that does not have an income tax. Here is a link to the taxes owed by landlords published by the state of Hawaii.

An Introduction to Renting Residential Real PropertyThe Board of Water Supply (BOWS) sent a letter to all customers arguing against the latest Environmental Protection Agency regulatory agreement with the U.S. Navy over the Red Hill Bulk Fuel Storage Tank defueling.  Stott Property Management, LLC’s mailbox was filled with more than 80 letters during the week of 1/09/2023, While arguing that neither the EPA nor the U.S Navy could be trusted, a reasonable argument, BOWS objected to the state Department of Health (DOH) becoming the lead agency in the defueling oversight.  The letter encouraged neighbors to attend a contentious town January 18 town hall meeting where the BOWS, community activists, and residents lambasted the agreement as toothless.  The major complaints included the lack of deadlines and lack of fines if the U.S. Navy failed to meet the deadlines.  In order to prevent future spills, the work should be event driven, not deadline driven.  The letter spells out the BOWS’s objections.
 

·     “Does not contain clear deadlines for completing the work.
·      Does not contain strict penalties for noncompliance.
·      Lacks opportunities for stakeholder and public participation.
·      Does not contain actions to address the latest release of aqueous film forming foam (AFFF) concentrate containing per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS).
·    May conflict with existing Hawaii Department of Health’s (DOH) Emergency Order and enforcement actions and the existing Administrative Order on Consent from 2015.  DOH is not part of this proposed Consent Order.
·     Is premature given that the full extent of the damages to the environment including our water resources are unknown, and the Red Hill Bulk Fuel Storage Facility still stores 104 million gallons of jet fuel and diesel over the aquifer.
 

The U.S. Space Force has joined the fuel spill club by dumping 700 gallons of diesel fuel at Haleakala’s summit.  For some unknown reason, a pump was left running for about twelve hours without any supervision.  The reliance of an automatic shut-off of a backup generator was named the culprit.  When Tim was in the Navy, loading diesel fuel was essentially an all department operation that occurred during normal working hours.  The lack of concern for fueling operations by the military’s top brass is disturbing.

Hundreds of gallons of diesel fuel spilled at Space Force facility atop HaleakalaThe Honolulu Star Advertiser featured an article on rising crime and violence that has plagued Honolulu since the COVID-19 restrictions were lifted.  Community involvement in the Safe and Sound Waikiki program has referred 456 arrests to city prosecutors from September through December 2022.  The program mirrors Chinatown’s Weed and Seed and hopefully prosecutors will successfully put the perpetrators in jail for their crimes.

Mayor, Rick Blangiardi, announced Handi-Van’s 48 vehicle order in the wake of mounting criticism of the service provided to handicapped individuals on Oahu.  The purchase stems the bleeding but does not fully address the city’s failure to maintain the fleet resulting in 84 vans being placed out of service.  Maintenance woes and staffing problems have resulted in a 36% on-time pickup record and 17% of calls being answered.


House Bill 72 proposes a $500 fine for feeding feral chickens.  The bill proposed by an elementary school principal claims the chickens, who are as large as some of the students, have become aggressive.  Apparently encouraging highly active 6th grade boys to chase the chickens is too dangerous.  Ironically, a photo of grade school kids practicing for a national flag football tournament showed them chasing each other around a park. 


One neighbor is apparently afraid of walking his dog due to the number of chickens.  Tim and Tracey’s dog, Buddy, would love the opportunity of a chicken approaching within the range of his leash.  The problem has been around for decades, and a new law won’t change a thing.  In an unrelated event, Mid-Pac Country Club asked members to stop feeding the ducks.  Tracey finally convinced the ducks to stop hanging out near and in the Kelley pool by chasing the ducks away with a pole.

Oahu residents may report potholes, broken streetlights, cracked sidewalks, illegal dumping, broken signs, and other forms of vandalism by visiting Honolulu 311.  You may submit a work request by using the following link.


Honolulu 311Honolulu Lifeguard Luke Shepardson won the 2023 Eddie Aikau Invitational Big Wave Contest at Waimea Bay riding the top of the largest wave of the day, dropping in the steep face, and completing the ride after a series of maneuvers.  He defeated 2nd place finisher, John John Florence, who won the last “Eddie” in 2016.  The wave faces averaged 50 feet during the contest and Shepardson started the day as a lifeguard during the early rounds.  Here is a link to the highlights of the “Eddie,” including some epic wipeouts.



The 2023 Eddie Aikau Big Wave Invitational - FULL HIGHLIGHTS (Event Recap)Pacific Business News, a local business publication, celebrated its 60th anniversary.  Tim and Tracey read the newspaper weekly to keep up to speed on Hawaii’s business environment, enjoy the editor’s “Pupu Platter” articles, and attend educational seminars put on by the staff and other business leaders.  Here is to another successful 60 years.

The first of three coordinated Hawaiian Islands Humpback Whale National Marine Sanctuary Ocean Count documented eighty-three whale observations on Kauai, 75 whales off Oahu and the Big Island, and nine sightings on Maui despite heavy rain.  Three counts occur during the last Saturdays in January, February, and March.


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By Tim Kelley 09 Jan, 2024
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By Tim Kelley 09 Jan, 2024
The December median price for single-family homes was $996,500 (5.1% lower than December 2022) and for condos was $510,000 (1.5% higher than December 2022). Demand continues to fall with 9.9% fewer single-family homes and 24.4% fewer condos sold this December compared to the same month last year. Single-family home sales have fallen twenty-three consecutive months and condo sales have dropped for nineteen straight months. The number of available properties, both single-family homes and condos, appears to be stabilizing yet scarce. There are still only 2.8 months of single-family home and 3.2 months of condo inventory. You can review more detailed current and past real estate market data on our website using the link below. Monthly Statistics October 2023 Market Update A U.S. Court District judge issued a summary judgement granting the Hawaii Legal Short-Term Rental Alliance (HILSTRA) a permanent injunction against a provision of Ordinance 22-7 prohibiting home rental periods between thirty and 89 days for property owners who were following the 30-day minimum rental period before the laws effective date of October 23 rd , 2022. HILSTRA successfully argued that the new law caused immediate and devastating economic harm to landlords and operators legally renting their properties. The permanent injunction will make the thirty to 89-day ban on newer rental properties difficult to enforce. The city has not decided if it will appeal the decision. An article by Civil Beat summarized decades of action or lack of action resulting in the years-long slog many homeowners and contractors experience at the Department of Planning and Permitting (DPP) waiting on permit approval. Back in the 1970’s, a contractor could obtain a building permit the same day by walking plans to each DPP department for signatures and being able to fix issues on the spot when an experienced examiner pointed them out. A loss of institutional knowledge when experienced examiners retired, increased regulation, a failure to update technology, and the removal of face-to-face interaction has resulted in November 2022 permit times of 330 days on average for a residential permit and 420 days on average for a commercial permit. DPP reported an average of a six-month delay in October, easy solar power permits have skewed the numbers since building permits still languish. DPP’s largest problem is hiring since people with an architecture or engineering background can make $20,000 to $50,000 more in the private sector and “don’t get yelled at as much.” Additionally, the Honolulu City Council issued a rash of new regulations from 2016 through 2020 requiring DPP to establish a new department and additional review step. DPP’s director has received additional funding to hire people to reduce the backlog, however, contractors are still waiting “longer than ever” for a permit in the meantime. National Home sales fell to a 13-year low in October and November sales rose slightly above October’s low due to lower mortgage rates. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes have seized up the resale housing market and negatively impacted related businesses like furniture and home improvement stores. The furniture industry and home improvement sector have experienced four straight quarters of falling sales resulting in fewer jobs. Employment related to real estate has stagnated and some real estate agents are reconsidering their career path, particularly after the court verdict that may impact the way clients pay Buyer’s Agents. Economists think mortgage rates will have to drop at least an additional percentage before more sellers become willing to trade their currently low mortgage rates for a new home with a higher rate. Some good news came in the form of growing new home construction and a rise in building permits. The Hawaii Tourism Authority (HTA) reported 731,233 visitors arrived in Hawaii this past November, essentially the same number arriving the November prior. The number is 9.6% lower than the arrivals in November 2019, just prior to the pandemic. International visitors, including Japan, continue to significantly lag the pre-pandemic numbers. In an ironic development, the six-month old panel established by Governor Josh Green to accelerate affordable housing development, approved a school impact fee waiver for a developer to convert a commercial property into a 52-unit apartment building. The waiver does not have any impact on needed building permits. Green’s emergency proclamation was issued with the goal of building 50,000 housing units statewide, but only 1,300 more affordable rental units are in the pipeline. The Department of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR) fined a Sunset Beach homeowner for illegally pouring concrete on the beach to shore up his eroding property. Desperate homeowners have littered the surrounding coastline with boulders, sandbags, and black tarps as the state struggles to enforce laws preventing shoreline hardening that leads to accelerated beach loss. Pictures Soaring hurricane insurance rates are causing some condominium complexes to secure coverage that does not completely cover replacement costs. The rising costs are occurring despite Hawaii not experiencing a direct hit in 31 years because of the global nature of the reinsurance market. An association’s decision to reduce insurance coverage can make it difficult for home buyers to obtain mortgages and pay higher rates. A local insurance expert estimates almost four hundred condo complexes do not have full coverage including luxury buildings in Kakaako. Joint Task Force Red Hill (JTFRH) announced it finished the gravity draining portion of the defueling operation of the Navy’s underground fuel tank facility on December 15 th , 2023, removing almost 150 million gallons of fuel from the site. The last tanker of fuel departed on December 20 th for the Philippines, one of several U.S. sites in the Pacific chosen to receive the drained fuel. Workers must pump about 60,000 gallons of remaining fuel and remove about 30,000 gallons of “sludge.” JTFRH scheduled the removal of the remaining fuel by the end of January, six months earlier than planned. JTF-Red Hill Commander Provides Gravity Defueling Update A jury will decide the merits of a dispute between developer Howard Hughes Corp, developer of Ward Village in Kakaako and the Honolulu Authority for Rapid Transportation (HART) over the cost of the land HART seeks to build the rail project’s Kakaako station. The estimated price tag is $200 million, and HART has already spent $23.3 million in legal fees as of 2021. Howard Hughes Corp. disagrees with HART about receiving “special benefits” and HART using the “special benefits” to calculate the amount paid for the land. HART’s “expert appraiser” valued the land HART wants to take from Howard Hughes Corp. at $14 million. There is no current plan to build the Kakaako station at the heart of the dispute after Mayor Blangiardi postponed the construction of the final 1.25 miles of the line because of cost overruns. The U.S. Army agreed to lease the state Department of Transportation at Kawaihapai Airfield, previously known as Dillingham Airfield on the North Shore, paving the way for continued commercial activity by local businesses. State has less than 30 days to reach deal with military on Dillingham Airfield Heavy rains on December 20 th caused a mudslide on the Pali Highway, closing the Honolulu-bound lanes through the busy holiday weekend. Heavy rainfall has often resulted in mudslides closing the Pali. Multiple landslides in February of 2019 caused the state to declare the Pali Highway a natural disaster area. State construction crews spent months reinforcing the hillside above the Pali Highway and extending the tunnel to protect cars from falling debris. Pali Hwy closed through weekend as crews clear landslide Contractors removed and packed up the Caltech Submillimeter Observatory telescope on Mauna Kea for shipment for Chile in December, the first of five telescopes scientists must decommission on the Mauna Kea summit to make room for the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT). TMT construction remains in limbo as the National Science Foundation completes more environmental studies and the new Mauna Kea Summit Oversight Authority takes over management of the summit. Caltech Submillimeter Observatory Telescope Removal The University of Hawaii’s (UH) new Reserve Officer Training Corps (ROTC) program commissioned its first Ensign on the deck of the Battleship, USS Missouri in December. The newly commissioned officer will serve on the USS Shiloh, based in Pearl Harbor, after completing the three-month Basic Division Officer Course. Tim graduated from Tulane University back in 1989 on a ROTC scholarship and served on the USS Cavalla, a fast-attack submarine based out of Pearl Harbor. A recently released study by an Arizona State University student and former Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology researcher reports fishing of herbivore species to less than 80% of the reef’s unfished density results in lower coral reef health due to the buildup of algae, the fish’s food. The state Department of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR) is considering additional reef fishing restrictions to prevent the overfishing of Hawaii’s coral reef systems. DLNR deployed its one millionth hatchery grown sea urchin in Kaneohe Bay to control two species of invasive seaweed that can suffocate coral reef patches in the bay. Once a month, a team collects twenty-five of the mini “seaweed mowers” and induces them to spawn resulting in larvae 24 hours later. Researchers siphon the swimming larvae off the top and place them in larvae rearing tanks to protect the delicate animals during development. After 28 days, the team grows a biofilm on clear corrugated roofing material that the larvae attach to and start to look like little urchins called spat. Three weeks later, researchers move the spat to grow-out tanks when they are the size of a pencil eraser and then deployed to the bay once they reach the size of a dime. Sea Life Park Hawaii kicked off “The Year of the Honu,” commemorating 50 years of its Honu Conservation program. The conservation program has released over 17,000 turtle hatchlings into the wild over its 50 years in operation. Sea Life Park Events The Lahaina wildfire destroyed Kohala Brewery and its owners rebuilding plan involves brewing their recipes at Kona Brewing Company. The arrangement allows Kohala Brewery to continue shipping beer to customers and take advantage of Kona Brewing Company’s state-of-the-art facility that allows for more tighter quality control and consistency. The second phase of Kohala’s recovery includes rebuilding the taproom and retail business. Oahu craft beer afficionados have a new option available, Howzit Brewing. The Kakaako brewery recently opened a brewery and tasting room in Ward Village. The owner was born on Oahu, learned his trade in the Pacific Northwest craft beer scene, and returned to Oahu to start his own enterprise. December provided a reminder of the danger involved with hiking some of Oahu’s trails. Fortunately, the hiker did not die from the fall. Rescuers found the hiker after a three-day search 1,000 feet below the Pali Notches Trail. The hiker suffered a fractured cheekbone, broken wrist, and several puncture wounds. Five units of about thirteen experienced hikers participated in the search to find the hiker. ‘It’s a miracle’: Hiker who fell 1,000 feet on Oahu trail, was missing for days thanks his rescue.  Take a look at our Another Day in Paradise's Video Another Day in Paradise: Waterfalls
By Tim Kelley 08 Dec, 2023
Stott Real Estate, Inc.
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